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Skyraker

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Everything posted by Skyraker

  1. Skyraker
    Ensemble Watch.
  2. Skyraker
    It does at face value, but look at the scatter in the ensembles on the warmer side and the general agreement with the colder members... it's there if you squint.
  3. Skyraker
    Considering it's not even December, I think we're starting to see something really special. Either way.. i'm putting the tree up.
  4. Skyraker
    This High wants to goto GL...... Iceland looks about right. Get that depression under the high and we have our CFS anomoly.
  5. Skyraker
    LOL @ this run... it actually sodding gets there in the end, by the wierdest , most illogical way possible.
  6. Skyraker
    What is this 'radio' thing you speak of?
  7. Skyraker
    Where will the High go if that happens ? *edit* What would be mustard would be the low to the east to dive SE & the low to the west to undercut or more likely go for a wander up north. More chance of a tommy off the pope though I reckon.
  8. Skyraker
    Pet hate eh John?
  9. Skyraker
    That's great to hear. Now seeing as you're a public body and all that... owned by the great unwashed... what chance of the data being made public?
  10. Skyraker
    How are you guys finding the accuracy compared to the NAE version? IIRC didn't you have to airbrush (or similar) in snowfall by hand ?
  11. Skyraker
    I've simplified the ENS watch. Four locations, only -10C 850hpa counts.
  12. Skyraker
    ENS watch beta. Is there an easier way of counting the members without having to squint at the ens graph?
  13. Skyraker
    Anyone have a copy of the 06z ens?
  14. Skyraker
    I'll do it if it will shut you up
  15. Skyraker
    Cut off low inflating the high north... ? It's not imposssible.
  16. Skyraker
    A T382L64 high resolution control out to 7 days, after which this run gets truncated and is run out to 16 days at a T126L64 resolutionA T190L28 control that is started with a truncated T382L64 analysis and run out to 16 days, labeled as 20 perturbed forecasts each run out to 16 days at T190L28 horizontal and vertical resolution. The initial perturbations are generated using Ensemble Transform with Rescaling (ETR) method. Source http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/mconf.php
  17. Skyraker
    We might just get to see a fabled polar low..... unicorns are more common. *edit* IIRC thse are pretty much nowcast situations as the models rarely pick them up. ie) the first you'll know about it is when it shows on the sat image.
  18. Skyraker
    The ECM 240 chart could just be the start of something epic.
  19. Skyraker
    Is that an energetic southern arm I see before me?
  20. Skyraker
    You've drawn that yourself... haven't you.
  21. Skyraker
    Thats due to the increase in gravity that accompany low pressure systems.The opposite is true during anti cyclones, you might have noticed when you throw a ball it takes slightly longer to come down.
  22. Skyraker
    Why don't you go and put on a dress ?
  23. Skyraker
    To be fair Tom, that's a hell of a cherry pick.
  24. Skyraker
    Bloody hell gibby, did you need a map to find us? I thought you were AWOL.
  25. Skyraker
    Crewecold: "I have to say, on balance, I favour the GFS outcome on this one. Since this morning the GFS has been downgrading this storm in terms of severity and I wouldn't bet against it in this situation. Just my view on proceedings. Obviously though, I'm not a trained meteorologist." ooh, you should know better than to bet against the UKMO/ECM. FWIW I think you're right (hunch)
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