Skyraker

@+144 the UKMO model is the one i'd want to see on side, it just seems to verify better at that range than the GFS which i've seen break many hearts with a sudden change @ +72. It will be interesting to see where the ECM stands in an hour or so.

Fair enough Stew, just annoying that's all when he keeps posting the same thing over and over just to wind everyone up.

I've just had a look in the Strat thread and it's looking a bit downbeat in there.

You should see Decembers CET +7.5

I think it's the allure of extremes. We're perverse is delighting in extremes regardless of the cost involved. I used to work in Chelyabinsk and daytime highs during winter would be around -32c, but when the weather got above freezing or anywhere near it tbh it was relished in the same way we covet cold and snow. I think because a big freeze is so rare , we all want to see it. Anything out of the norm or remarkable causes excitement ... Human nature.

He's been banging on about 2012 for NW europe for a couple of years now, if he's right then that's one hell of a long range forecast.

Joe called last winter for NW Europe correct.

Sounds like a tea leaf job to me.

This year or last?

Strat winter temps 1951 to 2011/12. http://www.geo.fu-be...pole/index.html 2011/12 Nov = -76C Dec = -82C Jan = -67C Feb = -64C Mar = -63C Apr = -54C

I guess it's another piece of the jigsaw. A quick glance of wikipedia contains the following; Since the adoption and strengthening of the Montreal Protocol has led to reductions in the emissions of CFCs, atmospheric concentrations of the most significant compounds have been declining. These substances are being gradually removed from the atmosphere—since peaking in 1994, the Effective Equivalent Chlorine (EECl) level in the atmosphere had dropped about 10% by 2008. It is estimated that by 2015, the Antarctic ozone hole will have reduced by 1 million km² out of 25 (Newman et al., 2004); complete recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer is not expected to occur until the year 2050 or later. Work has suggested that a detectable (and statistically significant) recovery will not occur until around 2024, with ozone levels recovering to 1980 levels by around 2068

Forgive me if this is a daft question or posted in the wrong thread, but is there any correlation between the reduced ozone seen before the ban on CFC gasses and a colder stratosphere ?

Quick question; Is the CFSV2 one run or an ensemble?

Fair enough (i'm only quoting others), just how uncommon is it?

To say that this winter has a statistical 1% chance of being equal or worse than 1962/63 is IMO wrong. If such a winter happens on average every 100 years then at baseline before any indicators are present the chances are indeed 1%. However if indicators during October are pointing towards a warmer than average winter then statistically the odds are reduced, instead of 1% they may be 0.1% (depending on the strength of the indicators). This year the indicators are strongly pointing toward a colder than average winter period so I put forward the argument that the chances of a 1962/63 event are raised to perhaps 5 or 10%. Anyone disagree? Des.

If I'm reading those charts right the probability works out thus;Probability of above average temperatures 20%Probability of near normal temps 20-40%Probability of Below average temps 60-80%Jolly good.

@MAttHugo81 Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

I remember the Feb 1979 event. I was at Primary school and the playground was flooded, only to freeze solid by lunchtime.Walking home with my Mum aged 8, crying because the snow stung so bad and we couldn't see. I remember being genuinely scared that we wouldn't be able to find home (which was only 1/4 mile away). I always wondered when that event happned, thanks for clearing it up.

I've been following Laminate floori on twitter in the hope that he'd do a European winter forecast, but all i'm getting from him is rabid right wing tweets about the bloody election. Shame really... I used to look forward to his take on things.... now I just think he's a dick.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif Strat Temps... early I know , but the stall against the mean gives hope... .. and there is always hope.

I did PM you a while back , pointing out we were within a mile of each other.I was in Essex during 2009-2011 and did 'OK' out of those, but if i'm honest I remember much , much snowier scenarios leaving Barnfields or Walton High (I'm sure you know what I mean).Des.

Thinking out loud.. When is the last time we had a *really* good polar low ?

Going to be fun for me this year as I've just got rid of a 4WD Mitsi GTO and replaced it with a very tail happy MX5.

Where do I sign?

Sorry if i'm off topic.. but what is this SACRA ?