Skyraker

Light snow here as well.. settling on the cars.

Agreed. It was looking like rain, but the cold air should dig in behind this front. I have my doubts it will get as far east as some suggest and MIGHT stall over us, now that would be fun. Remember.. this is just the start of the cold spell and don't let someone posting one chart out at 5 days tell you otherwise.

TBH it might not be such a bad thing that this has stalled west as we get another shot later which WAS progged further east with rain for us. Also it's worth taking a look at the UKMO 12z run @ T+120, because it's brilliant.

Depends on the traffic mate.

Is anyone reporting snow in Shropshire ?

TBH This is a nowcast situatiion. Forget BBC weather / METO, just look out the window, you might be suprised at how much you get.

Hi Mate, I've moved from Wildwood as far as... Radford Bank, so lost about 35m of altitude. Forget the ECM for the short term stuff, now it's down to NAE, FAX and lamppost watching. Surely the snow shield can't win out again here.

Tea Leaves.

For a laugh yes. Seriously, a waste of time.

I dunno, West Brom do OK.

There's some stroking of beards going on over in the model discussion thread and general agreement that this could be modelled further west as we approach T-0, which for everyone in this thread is splendid news. The SE & East coasters will get their fill from the upcomming easterlies so they'll be sitting pretty in the mid term. Pretty much ALL of our big snow events in this region have been from this type of incursion into a cold block, this is different but still similar. If it comes off it will be better than Christmas.

You're only going to see snow mate.

We just need an easterly correction of 50 miles and we're guaranted snow for the whole region. Right now, the transition on the NAE is right over my head for Monday (Stafford). Evap cooling might come in to it, but I really don't want to be relying on that.. I'm expecting / hoping for a correction on tomorrows runs. Fingers crossed.

Dewpoints of -2 and 850's of -6/-7 MUST mean snow surely?

From a personal (S Staffs) perspective, i'd love to see those cold uppers 50 miles further west. It'll be a nowcast event for the Welsh borders / W Mids, either very memorable or blue balls. Here's hoping.

Look at the gfs ens for moscow, itis a massive outlier in fi... massive I

That is some energy going into the lower half of the jet.

I get the strat & SSW events etc, but it's a relatiely new discipline. Should we imply that all model discussion pre-strat monitoring should be disregarded? Simply playing devils advocate , nothing more. Des.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html The above link doesn't specify PV strength but does give historic Strat temps through late autumn / winter and corresponding warmings... cherry pick away guys. Des.

Is it true (amazing to me if it is) that Mountain Torque effects (low pressure one side of a range, high on the other) actually slows the earths spin (albeit miniscule amounts)? I'm genuinely impressed by that as a backyard astronomer. Des.

Just out of interest.... (I've highlighted the bits)

He won't, but if he does i'll show my backside in Topshops window.

Using the waybackmachine I managed to find 2010/11 forecast from around 18th November. Linkage = http://web.archive.o...type=pr&id=1774 Also I think some of you are being a bit hard on Brian, I believe (correct me if i'm wrong) he didn't dismiss Stat events, just didn't use them as a parameter in his forecast. His "ludicrous" comment I think was regarding only looking at the strat and little else... *edit* He's revised it a bit to remove the statement, so I can't go re-read it.

What we need here in Staffs mate is a battleground jobby. We get dustings from easterlies that make it over to us but what gave us those truly epic falls in the 70's 80's is deep deep cold , entrenched over the country and an atlantic wide boy trying his luck to push in... either you get rain... snow, quickly turning to rain... or EPIC EPIC totals... they are rare but you do remember them. Soon.... C

Maybe it's more of a case that like on here sometimes people can see that the models have got something wrong... At the end of the day the computers are just still a tool.