Calrissian

I'd love a nice swim this evening, especially with a near hurricane overhead. Can you imagine better swimming conditions? All that is missing is a 30ft storm surge for those surfers. Calrissian: WRAL, news on a loop is starting to grate

Dude, thanks for the North carol' link. works great. --- Ernesto putting on a little late August show. Woo hoo. Calrissian: Farewell August.

Woah ! Ernesto looking really good now, Hurricane status again later tonight now seems likely. Annoyingly surprising, wouldn't you agree?

Aye, thanks for the reminder. CB4 coverage is pretty good, and for storm freaks, it's on beginning right about...........NOW ! Calrissian: streaming

What is clear is that the forecast for Ernesto has been relatively poor throughout. From the initial target landfall of Texas, to the coast of Florida even. After so many errors, why would the forecast all work out right now? Calrissian: Pie good.

That is a VERY bold prediction, hope you're right. I'd rather STS-115 not be affected anymore than already is ! I assume, you'd think on that trajectory, those in the NO will be having a bad weekend. Of course, if Ernesto does follow that path, then that is the most energetic area for super development, so it could indeed get real nasty. Oh well, at least the waiting it almost over, we'll know in what....12 hrs? Calrissian: eyes on the Dvorak

Hmm... I remain utterly confused by this bizarre little storm - and little it remains, yet if I had to bet, I'd go with your view. I see no reason why it must straight north, westwards...into the GOM. As for ET, if it last for 12 more hours, its a baby storm for sure. Calrissian: Offensive names on standby

Good call on the 'evil twin'. ET' is still a very much distinct area, and does not appear to be fading away yet. Can it really survive much longer? A long day ahead.

Clearly, its a mess. Too many predictions, all of them wrong ! I bet Ernesto will still be in the same area in twelve hours time (I guess thats another prediction though, so I hope its wrong). ohh look, a mini hurricane just on the west coast of Florida, how great is that? Late night madness ? Calrissian: time for sleeping pills (or not?)

I'm sorry, but when I look at this.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html all I see is the centre SOUTH of Cuba, and it hasn't really moved all day. All this talk of NW movement, blah ! The thing is, the NHC - and other models have been totally wrong about this storm ALL the time. First they tell us its heading for Texas, then miss, lou, now Florida. I'm not saying its hard, because it is, and Ernesto is one of those too difficult to predict storms. Anyone else on the Ernesto is too wild to predict train ? Calrissian: watching the big yellow lump remain static

Ha, south of Cuba, indeed ! I'd give ya good money if it moves that centre somewhat west as the hours slip by overnight. EDIT - dead link removed Calrissian: net tv RULES !

okay, thats enough. This storm is starting to annoy me. Just what the hell is going on? One moment it seems like its well on the way to crossing the lower part of Cuba, now it seems to offshore to the south. This storm, despite it being weak at present, seems resilient, I'd still suggest an eventual westward track, but then again... maybe it'll just hang around Cuba for a few weeks ? Annoying, but almost entertaining at the same time. Calrissian: tired

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006 ...ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ARE DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...WEST OF GUANTANAMO. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. STORM TIDES AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N...75.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH -------- So, 45mph and weakening. looks like we'll have a TD status by 4pm UK time. All that talk of Cat'3 Ernesto now looks very weak. Calrissian: looking at a rather weak little storm

well, there is still a bit of a breeze there - at 35-45mph right now, along with a foot or so of rain ! Not entirely the most pleasent of days. As for Monday, looks like Ernesto should at least stablise a bit, but then where from there? If it hangs over Cuba too long, its game over. -- Calrissian: signing out

Looks tiny, only the core seems strong http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg Indeed, if it hangs over Cuba for more than 12hrs, it might even fall apart entirely. Even so, a long night ahead. Calrissian: every day is a bank holiday for some people

H. EXTRAP 1004 mb All these extrapolations. Who knows what the last 12 hrs data has really been. I think a lot are being a bit hung up on the precise numbers today. Regardless, Ernesto is on his way to the USA. --- Calrissian: September not far away

hahaha. Seems we're having a little Sunday evening madness. Ernesto is just messing with us, don't underestimate the intelligence of this beast. Its just teasing a little, dropping to TS strength, before collapsing to 130mph+. Great Sunday night entertainment, even better than Big Brother winners week. Calrissian: eyes on STS 115

Never heard of it, thanks for the link.

okay, back from lala land now... So, its Sunday afternoon, what sorta ETA on usa landfall are we looking at ? I assume everyone is now going with the 'its going to cut east and hit Florida area? If so, next Wed/Thur, or maybe not until the weekend? Everyone seems resigned to the storm being Cat'3, and I would guess most of you are aware of the whole 'Tampa Bay' scenario, arguably just as worse as the long awaited as the New Orleans one was. What u think ? -- Calrissian: wondering if STS 115 will get off in time

Poor Florida, you're assuming it is going to literally be wiped off the map? Damn, I never thought it'd be that strong a storm! Calrissian: too tired to draw maps

I will have to restrain myself regarding the whole 'idiots building/living on flood plains' - its another thread really. --- As for the season, well Aug'26'th until we got our first Cane, regardless of what Ernesto does do, I can't help but wonder what lies beyond. For all we know, Ernesto may be the 'peak' storm of this year, although many said that of Katrina, only to have Rita whack another chunk of land in October. -- Calrissian: DIY electrical work, kinda tricky

Last year, post Kat, I noted that the US Govt - at some elite levels would be hoping for another 1 or 2 storms to finally convince the idiots it is a bad idea to live below sea level. Of course, politics as it is, such opinion could not be spoken. Instead we had.... "...Live below sea level, ohh yeah, that make sense, Lets rebuild it, err.. .yeah, it makes sense !" --- If the New Orleans area is hit again, most of the mute fools from last year - too scared to speak up, will finally start to tout 'hey, do we really want to build here'? Of course, they will, until the third hit occurs, then 'they' might start to wake up. Calrissian: has zero sympathy for those living @ <0 sea level, or on the flood plains (yeah, that goes for you people in the Thames Gateway, fools !)

God, I love a good storm. looks like Ernestno will not dissapoint. Nothing quite as exciting as watching an atmospheric heat transference mechanism at its best --- Its only Sat' evening and its getting close to cane status already. Calrissian: Cat'5.1

Flood defences: err, barely begun to repair, never mind 'improve'. The pumping stations are in a mess, since the new pumps vibrate too much and are needing to be remade. As for 'repeat of katrina'. Well, most realise that NO got off relatively lightly. Barely a cat 2 at landfall, and a large % of the storm surge was elsewhere. I read recently that NO can NOT cope with anything, even a TS would be devastating. --- Meanwhile, Ernesto is on his way. Calrissian: Saturday is DIY day

The US govt - like most govts, is entirely incompetent. They can't organise jack, never mind defy the basic laws of physics in determining how/where such storms develop/progress. --- As for the season being a quiet one, not really, its just quiet compared to relative times. Ernesto is the wake up call for everyone this year. - Calrissian: Biscuits on standby