Calrissian

- SFAye, that'd seem the more 'natural' course for the short term, and yet it is a rare thing for any trend to be straight line all the way. I've always been reminded that when its comes to the climate, its more a matter of very fine equilibriums, which occasionally change to a different state of average. The last decade or so has been undoubtedly a warming trend (only an idiot would deny that much), and I've always felt that this initial warming trend of 0.5-2.0c is just the precursor to the overall climate shift. Anyone with even a remedial understanding of most natural systems surely recognise that you can alter a naturaly system a little for a period, but eventually it will flip, break, Jump (use whatever word ya fancy), the point is, when it is pushed a certain amount to the 'x' point, the rate of change will then accelerate immensely to then settle at a new average. I would say the 'stage 3' is the precursor stage to the real change that lies ahead. I recognise my view is one of a 'we're doomed' perspective, but so be it. As some may agree, right now, the 'masses' are not too worried, but given another 5-10 years, the system will jump ahead. Of course, by then...it'll be too late to do anything (as it already is anyway). --- **The same equilibrium theory applies for sea-level. A little melting at first, and then the whole damn lot melts within a very short time (decades, rather than millenia) - I cite the almost agreed inevitable dissapearence of the Arctic ice cap as a prime example, which some are now touting as early as 2020. Calrissian: If he be could Hiro....just for one day.

Err...I do keep meaning to publish my own summary outline on matters, but I seem overly busy with other things...like Battlefield 2142 and Heroes. -- Lots to say, but then many others have summarised things pretty well already. In any case, everything is proceeding as it should be. More soon. Calrissian: YATTA !

Well, I've been enjoying this latest burst of the denialist vs enlightened theorectical camps. April was the first of the major jump months, May is progressing quite fine, and is exactly as I had suggested. So far its been cloudy, and rather dull, but yet the CET is STILL above average. If we have that ridge back we'll be right back into the high 70s, and then the denialists will be again clawing for thoes northerly 'cool blasts'. I find it all frakking hilarious really. 8 months of this year to go, which makes for a lot of entertainment yet to read. Indeed, what a great year its turning out to be. With each further month of unprecedented record breaking months the battlelines between posters will only intensify. -- Stage'4 (where temps are 5C on average higher for 2-3 months at a time) is still a while off (2009-10 I believe). As for S'5, well, thats a whole other thread Calrissian: Proud to be santimonious (but not particularly satisfied lately)

The core explodes ? lol 11c rise ? Wow, a CET of around 21c in 2100, that'd make for some toasty winters nights. --- Like most things, there will never be a definitive answer, but the enlightened ones are already aware its way to late. Stage'3 is here....and the Jump continues. Calrissian: time for evening tea.

Aye, time is about up. Conditions look reasonable, so it certainly merits a bit of attention even at this early stage. Let the games begin I say, I am hopeful this will indeed be the somewhat early kick off storm for this season. Calrissian: standing by for Andrea

EXactly, all the loony toon hysteria over the supposed cooling, and yet its still mild. Its only early May, and yet the cold-doomsters were almost freaking out that we might even get a below average month. After more than 15 increasingly warm years, I do find it particularly disapointing to see how there is a resilient group who refuse to see the Jump that recently occured. *I'm still awaiting for the nice graph here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ to be updated. April will be a clear marker, the first of many. May - as I noted, won't be as stunning as April, but it'll be still be above even the 1990-2006 average. Calrissian: time for....Battlefield 2142.

Indeed, there a lot of hysteria about this touted late burst of 'cold', never mind mere cooler temps. 11, 12, 13c CET for May, makes little difference to me. We're already had 4 straight weeks of warm, even if May is a let down, we're still doing very well. Calrissian: does not steal others tag lines.

Yes, well most people are ignorant idiots, so don't expect the 'masses' to ever have any real appreciation of what is happening around them until their coastal homes are under water, and they have no regular drinking water. --- The graphs noted here by a few posters (thanks for posting them) illustrate the clear trend, and indeed the current Jump in progress. I'm almost beyond caring what the exact the reason for the trend is, the real question in my view remains how much more it can accelerate and over what time frame. Of course, in the meantime the hysterical media (and indeed general populace) remain utterly unprepared for what is to come. Calrissian: Alpha Dog

Thirty long years ago your wish would have had a hope of occuring. Not now though. The only is how many records will be yet broken this year, not a matter of 'will it be a cool summer'. Cool is a word best set aside for an era now past. 2007 is relentless, get used to such conditions. Calrissian: Alpha Dog.

I can't recall any mention of the 'met' touting 40c anywhere. Its not their style. --- Regarding the odds, As I've said before, the 1 in 8 odds they quoted I believe they have backwards. I'd give anyone 8-1 odds on it NOT being a record breaking summer for temperature. After the remarkable 'winter' of 06/07, the spring (that has mostly been semi-summer), the period May-October will continue to be relentless. Calrissian: wandering around

okay, its time I got off the fence.... After a strong April, May will continue to advance, although not as fierce as April's increase. I foresee a tail off in the increase to around 2c above normal, so, something in the area of 13.8. Calrissian: May CET 13.8

Well, its been a fun month. Just 1 day left, and it'll be kinda warm again tomorrow. I guess 11.5 is the likely number, which will be a mighty fine lead in for May. Calrissian: troubles with email

I'm a visionary You just have to believe me. No matter though, only 8months until we get to that point, and doubtless a further set of records will have been broken. Calrissian: too many biscuits is not wise.

I suppose the word 'guarantee' might upset some, but tough, I'm offering a guarantee on this. 'Some' dared to suggest within the first week of April this month would aim for 11c CET. Laughs and cries of 'impossible' were aired. Even when the variables looked favourable for 'cool' we still have daily temps of 17c. Frakking hillarious really, you gotta admit, right ? April, rain, cloud...and still 17c. We have seen 11c met this month...and now exceeded. As for May, conditions will doubtless tail off a bit (from the rate of 3.0c+ increase), but it'll still be around 1-2c + above normal. As one person list in their sig', there have been endless records broken in the last year...and that will continue (probably at least for another year or so). I will bet anyone ten million of your European Euros that we'll hit a 2007 CET of 11.25 or more. Anyone suggesting anything below 10.75 is insane and psychological stuck in the pre 1980s climate era. Let me note that neither is it wish casting on my part. I do not look forward to endless sleepless nights when the night temps are above 15c. It is 2007, the Jump year. Calrissian: Maybe time to update the sig.

That is pleasing to see. 11.25 is guarenteed, but for my target we do need a few 100f+ days, never mind endless sleepless nights, and then of course, skipping winter entirely, moving straight into Spring 2008 in November 2007. 4 months almost through, and things are preceeding for the Jump on track. Calrissian: More than meets the eye.

I'd guess this will maybe occur (in the South east part of the UK) 2 or 3 times this summer, with one of those occasions producing a freak high of 105f. If that happens, then I suggest you proceed to DEFCON 2. Calrissian: stuck in online gaming mood.

I look forward to more of those hybrid storms. October 2007 will mark 2 decades since the Biscay bomb hit the UK, maybe we'll get lucky this year? -- Anyway, am looking forward to the new storm season, I can't wait for this new season of entertainment. Endless TV feeds of doom and destruction, it doesn't get much better Calrissian: Awaiting Andrea

Its a bigger planet, plenty of room. Doubtless though, the gravity will squish you down to a somewhat shorter height. --- Back on topic...the warmth..with go go. Calrissian: stating the obvious

...thats because it IS summer. Summer in the 21'st century now runs from mid April to around mid October. Enjoy it for what it is. Calrissian: another warm night

The thing is, did you (I know plenty of people that did), said the same thing 'if we have another...' in 2003. Its 2007, our spring has been off the scale. I just keep seeing this 'if we have another' comments a lot lately. We've had a strong 15+ year increase in temps for the UK, how many more do you need to convince you? 5, 10 , 50 ? Anyway, thats for a seperate topic I guess, over in environmental. Calrissian: every time he has another...an angel gets their wings.

Truly awesome summary SF. I especially like... '3 - The rolling twelve month CET would be 11.68C: yet another all time high and a WHOPPING 1.6C above the point it was at 12 months ago.' --- It makes my initial 'crazy' yearly CET prediction look almost plausible. - As for April, it is astounding to see almost a straight line 9 > 12c CET look likely for April. As I said early on in the month, 11 is a given, now, the majority are moving to say 11.5 is likely, the 'brave' are now gunning for the big 12.0c. Calrissian: One of the brave.

The fact its 10pm, April 22nd, and the temp is still in the mid 60s - like a pleasent mid summers evening, THAT is impressive. Whats really amazing is that its so persistant. I did see that chart for next week, the one with stark red over the UK (indicating 30c?), whatever the case, its been a fascinating month. Calrissian: 'Babel' was inspiring

Fear of looking like an idiot, or standing out from the group mentality. -- I still think there is a natural (and highly understandable) bias towards basing predictions on what conditions typically used to be. The problem is that the past is..as the finance ads say... 'not necessarily a guide to the future'. So, for many, their predictions will constantly be lower, and this situation will probably persist for many years - if not decades, ahead. There is a 'lag factor' in forecasters theories. Only the 'brave', the 'crazy', or intellectually elite are ever superior to the majority. NEVER rely on the majority theory for the most accurate forecasts. Calrissian: 11.95 CET for 2007 (he likes to be different)

Thats really clutching at the proverbial straw. Even those numbers are only average. Go back over the last 15-20 years and 'most' of it is way above average. The overall trend is clear, *as for a 'cooling spell'. Yeah, but you'll have to wait until 2015-17 for that. It will probably be very cold for 2-3 years, but that will be the last spell of old time cold we'll ever see again. So, for the cold fans, there is still one 'blast from the past' experience yet to be had. In any case, April continues as before...warm, sunny, and very dry. Calrissian: time to venture out.

Thats right, the current rate won't be sustained. It'll accelerate further. If another 2 or 3 of the next 12 months are close to or are record breaking, then even the mainstream will be forced to wake up. Calrissian: As C3P0 would say....'we're doomed'