Calrissian

Well, still 3 or 4 hours until 'prime time viewing' starts. Looking at the latest Dvorak, another little NW movement, subtle, but its there. If current course continues, the eye will cover/clip at least the western quarter of Jamaica. Not much for Montego Bay residents with a 15-20ft storm surge+ waves. Calrissian: this posting sponsored by Bunkers-for-U, your specialist seller of Cat'10 proof underground apartments. Dude, thanks for the heads-up. Calrissian: back onboard ISS !

Arghhh... Damn charts...some sites are straining a bit under the load of all the weather freaks logging in. Managed to find this one again... http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/gifc9p08I5EDM.gif I think it has it too far south, but again, its showing Cat'5 status occuring in about 10 hours or so. - *meanwhile, on the powerfm feed (via hurricane city), people whining about lack of water. They simply not prepared enough, expecting the government to somehow magically keep the utilities open. In fact, they are planning to shut the power off anyway sometime today, which will mean no mains water. Calrissian: stressed.

oh yeah...look at the masterful Dvorak... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html Just one more further nudge north westward, and Kingston will be in dire trouble of a direct hit. Of course, a few more steps to right, and it might get lucky. However, all the endless talk of 'ohh it'll skirt to the south of the Island', utter nonsense talk. Further, I again see more charts predicting Dean will be a Cat'5 before it passes by Jamaica. We've around 4 or 5 hours to go. Calrissian: time to shoot some noobs up on BF 2142 ?

Looking at the vapour loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html Just one or two more steps northward, and Dean will be guarenteed to have its eyewall landfall somewhere along the southern Jamaican coast. Just one or two, and that is HIGHLY likely I predict. Calrissian: his eyes are watching...the eye.

Just one other thing to note before the big event... When this thing gets near the island, the direction could really change a fair bit. Dean could seem to bounce distinctly south, or may even seem to be pulled into the island. It is going to be crazy at 10pm tonight. Calrissian: ready for Dean

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx Yes, the radio host - routed via that feed, is sounding rather bouncy and overly light about it. All the talk that the eye might be to the south, sigh. They seem to totally be oblivious to that fact that if the eye wall is within say...20 miles of them, they are going to get whacked hard. Expect the next movement for Dean to be almost straight NW. Its due another step in that direction, talk that its going to 'miss', and everything will be relatively fine, its crazy talk. After a relatively long period of quiet, I'd expect Dean to have its structure refocused within 3-6 hours, which is somewhat worse-case for the same time as its expected to pass at/near Jamaica. Calrissian: wondering when the power will be cut to the locals.

re: media How anyone can fail to recognise that any level of hurricane is an apocolyptic event, sigh. I just say to people, imagine standing in front of a jet liner engine on 50% thrust for 6 hours, and then tell me whether you think you'll 'be fine'. -- Meanwhile, looks like Dean is about 17'N, just 1 more degree and its almost guarenteed to make landfall. ETA on landfall, something around 6-8 hours. So, by 10pm UK, the eyewall will probably hit the land. Calrissian: eyes sharp

lol, I am watching those media hacks, they seem to either be utterly naive or have been drinking most of the night. "...it looks like it will miss us to the south....won't be as bad as Wilma, so we should be okay". How many of those foolish media hacks will be still be alive tomorrow evening? Idiots. --- Meanwhile, Dean...advances another step forward. *people can debate all they want about whether it whacks the island as a Cat'4 or 5. Makes no difference. Kingston will probably be obliterated. I'm reminded of the Marley Song 'Exodus'. Today, more than ever, its appropriate, but of course, hardly anyone has left. I even read one story of some tourist flying into Jamaica, they said something along the lines of 'ohh, they've had storms before, we'll be fine'. Sigh. Oh well, maybe they'll win the Darwin award later this year? Calrissian: watching the now 24/7 feed : http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx

yeah, what a surprise, USA not giving a hoot, so long as it doesn't hit their blessed mainland. Calrissian: to hell with FOX, aka, NNBC (Nazi News Broadcasting Corp.)

Good morning all. Well, after a late night, I'm up, and well, it sure looks like Jamaica is remaining right on target. Indeed, this is looks to be about as bad a situation as you can get. Dean will probably intensify by the time its near the coast, and then may well hold strength all the way across. Devastation looms ahead. Calrissian: time for breakfast.

Jim Williams runs the site (with a little help), and has been doing the shows for a few years now. The video feed used to be a mere 56k feed, but its now a stable 150k. His show is on every night when a storm is near, and he also broadcast throughout the day. He uses TV feeds, webcams, charts, etc. You can even give him a call. Hell, he should be paying me for all this praise --- Meanwhile...Dean is that little bit closer to Jamaica, and I suspect a real collapse tonight...to perhaps sub 900mb. Focus on one thing....the warmer sea temps are STILL yet to come. Calrissian: time for tea

see the Dvorak loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html Notice how finally the Dom' Republic is kinda just swaying the storm back to the south, a little. Dare I suggest the storm is just being gently reflected back south...and remaining over the energy giving warm sea. What a day ahead of Jamaica. Truly apocalyptic effects loom for Jamaica if that core does indeed cross over a large chunk of this island. Calrissian: watching the amazing events.

Good morning all... Tis the best hurricane show that I know of.... http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx (should open with windows media player) Jim is off and running for a couple of hours now. ---- Meanwhile, Dean has now collapsed down to 920mb, behold the power of this storm, and it is still yet to enter the really hot waters. Calrissian: a fan of Mr Williams, BAMM, and the GFDL Jamaica residents

there was another pass just earlier, but they didn't cover it. NASA-TV will replay that earlier pass video throughout the evening, since the mainstream media often do have an interest in such things. --- As for Dean, he does seem stuck at the moment, but then, nothing increases in strength without pausing from time to time. The warmest seas are still yet to come for Dean. Even if he drops to Cat'3, there is massive potencial once past Jamaica for him to bomb to a crazy new record low pressure. The models are very closely saying the same thing that the 5-7 day track is broad NNW, but we are still a long way out, and I personally expect to see the natural tendency for the storm to start pulling more northward within a day or so. Even today we've seen the track a little north of the models. Looks like Jamaica - if its hit, will fare worse on the north side. Calrissian: 200ft underground in the nuclear bunker. (if only)

see: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...ENNIS/track.gif Dennis was very much a strongly moving north-westerly cane. He also started much further west, rather than Dean who developed shortly after leaving the west African coastline. Track maps - (including current data) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/ Calrissian: historically accurate.

You can. Just turn down the 'video acceleration' (in tools, hardware config) a notch or two. Should work for you. -- Its certainly been a hectic 24 hours, and we are still 5, 6, or even more days until the final landfall and breakup of Dean. A hell of a long way to go, one wild ride for the weather fanatics, and one scary experience for those in the path. Calrissian: time for tea ?

I am aware of a few hurricane people (semi-professional) flying off to Jamaica, who are going to find somewhere 'secure' in the hills, and take some video of what a cat4/5 storm does to an island. Crazy, yes, but I am sure there will be some freaky/amazing video footage of Dean, that will appear on the various youtube type sites in the coming week. Calrissian: awaiting the 6.45 Dean/ISS pass.

I'm glad you liked that little link. As noted, another pass - this time, just to the west of Dean, sometime around 6.45-7pm. Worth waiting for I'd say, besides, the ISS construction coverage is always must-see viewing in my view. -- Meanwhile, Dean marches west..and a little bit more north. I know someone in Jamaica, and she lacks an underground bunker. Sadly, most other locals do, the nastiness is clearly not too far away from them now. Just what are those people in the shacks supposed to do anyway? Calrissian: awaiting the next Dean pass.

I'd like to see one too, but I will add that even a 50mph severe gale scares the hell out of me. --- Hurricane Coverage - LIVE FEED from the ISS http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll...;segment=149773 Estimated time when Astronauts are working whilst over Dean - 5.40pm, should be some superb coverage of it. There will be a similar track 90mins later around 6.45-7pm. Calrissian: awaiting the spectacular view.

hang on. I've read about this 'leaking', but its the OTHER way around, right? The pressure is LOW in the middle, thus an 'absense' of as much air as outside the storm. So, its a matter of the suction upwards not being strong enough, and thus the air fills in/equalises, as would be normal on a calm day. *For those I've know who ask me what a cane is, I've always told them, just think of a giant spinning vacumn cleaner. Air in at the base, and thrown out in spirals at the top. Simple really. Thinking the impossible ? I think those who suggest <880mb is 'impossible' are really a bit short sighted. There is NO such rule that says the pressure can't go below that. It'd sure take one hell of a storm - which would require most/all variables in its favour, but its certainly possible. Dean may well we remembered as the storm that reminded the weather watching freaks (myself included) to always keep an open mind as to what can happen in the environment. As I said earlier, we've only got a few decades of even basic measurements to reflect on. To assume 'we've seen all thats possible', thats bad science. Calrissian: eyes sharp on Dean

okie, I'll remind you of that sometime soon. *if 882mb (Wilma' 2005) was possible, I see little reason why 870, and even lower is not well within the realms of happening. We have very limited records of such storms, and I've no doubt at at all there have been some crazy storms across the centuries. Calrissian: lunchtime

Where it usually lands. Florida. (or their backup sites in California) *Shuttle will probably undock today - earlier than scheduled, because they want it down on the ground, so that Houston flight control will all be manned. Houston is certainly a possible target. -- Without getting too hysterical (easily done with such amazing storms), are we looking at our first super cat'6 storm. Yes, I know we have no such classification, but anyway... The sea temps just get EVER higher as Dean moves west and northward, from the current 28s to 30/31. see: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSST/recent.html When you consider that max' potencial pressures are distinctly indicated as possibly below 900mb, are we indeed looking at something we've never seen before ? Might we see next week, Dean....in the gulf of mexico, blasting away at a steady 200mph, 875mb, and freaking everyone out...as it is starts to curve more northward? All the factors are looking very very favourable for Dean to become the Demon that some are starting to believe he might be. Demonic Dean, the beast of 2007 ? Calrissian: time for lunch

Dean is headed for a fast Cat'5 status by sometime Saturday. Most important of all, Dean is slowing, and despite what the majority of the models suggest, I'd guess Dean will be making a slow turn northwards by Sunday. After a very dead start to the season, looks like things are now really ramping up (with the African wave train now up and running).

Calrissian: 17.3

Yes, UK society is weak minded. If it weren't for immigration, the UK would already be facing imminent demographic disaster. Popn. ain't rising much. == We need around 3-5 million single apartment homes for all the old and single people, unless you'd like to have them all sleep in govt. run bunk bed dorms? ---- ------------ BACK to the issue. I almost wish London would suffer some kind of flood, it'd wake up the damn policy planners in whitehall, where frankly - as many here realise, couldn't give a damn about what happens west of Reading or North of Watford. The radar is still looking impressive for this evening, should get a fair few hours of heavy rain across most of the SE, but it does'nt look like the currently dire areas will get too whacked. Calrissian: watching Charley go nuts with Chanelle...again.