carinthian

After a long journey today , safely arrived in Skipton. Windy and mild here at 10c. Thoroughly miserable. Just seen the latest model runs , not good as the promise of a bit of winter has gone from the UKMO / ECM earlier run.. Any consolidation , the same mild conditions back home in Austria, but at least it will be dry over there. Think the prospect of a pint or two of Tim Taylors bitter will cheer me up. ! C

Horrible journey back to Skipton this evening. Wet and windy , 10c. The worse type of weather. More of the same to come. Mild Christmas beckons, any consolation, same back in Euroland but at lleast spare the wind and rain. Love coming back but the climate around here is the pits. C

About to leave this on route to Skipton this morning ! C

About to leave this this morning on route to The Northwest ! C

ECM run follows on and produces chart of the morning ! C

Morning all. UKMO still ploughs on with its post Christmas Low across the North of England. Chart below indicates a couple of cold nights to follow. -10c at 18z across the snow fields of the Southern Pennines ! Um ? Hope their run stays the course as I am soon due over in Skipton for Christmas and then onto Stockholm for New Year ( hate mild and rain ) Not very nice on GFS showing quite a lot of rain and less cold towards the New Year. There can only be one outcome !! C

Morning all. UKMO still have that troublesome Low in their extended model. A slightly slower movement this run but with a more southerly correction. Again , some sort of backing from the more aggressive GEM this morning. No backing from GFS at the moment. No sure where ECM will head ? . Quite a large snowfall across the Northern Pennines and Lakes District mountains based on that chart below with freezing contours as low as 250m in parts of Northern England. Trouble brewing ? C

Evening all, UKMO still has that low crossing Southern Scotland late Boxing Day. If it stays with this development the split now showing in the jet just after Christmas will likely to send it on a more southerly track nearer the time. Interesting development this one with some cold air in the mix. Some support showing on GEM run. In the meanwhile curve ball low will soon start to intensify between SE of Iceland as it tracks towards Faroe Islands and onward to Southern Scandinavia. c

I think nearer 8c will be more likely for your part of the Midland and with lower DP combined with a breeze will probably make it feel more seasonal than many previously mild Christmas Days ! Hopefully a few hours sunshine rather than miserable overcast muck ! C

Morning all, looks like models firming up on Christmas Day. Most of you should have quite a nice seasonal day with a chilly wind and frosty Christmas Night. Any snowfall , probably reserved for The Northern Highlands that may see local blizzards for a time. What about that chart from UKMO end of Boxing Day ? Now that would deliver blizzards to parts of Scotland . Um . As I think trouble is brewing out west as the jet weakens and splits post Christmas C

Evening , going by that fax chart ,looks like Met Office will be ramping up a powerful wind potential during Thursday. 82mb difference between Southern Scandinavia and the high to the SW of British Isles centred over the Atlantic. Models all out of sync at the moment. Not only Christmas period forecast unpredictable at the moment but the Winter Solstice forecast even in jeopardy. Think some rapid changes over the next few days. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4979677

Sorry Laurence, pressed submit button to soon ? Have edited. Must be getting excited about my Christmas visit back to blighty !

Evening , going by that fax chart ,looks like Met Office will be ramping up a powerful wind potential during Thursday. 82mb difference between Southern Scandinavia and the high to the SW of British Isles centred over the Atlantic. Models all out of sync at the moment. Not only Christmas period forecast unpredictable at the moment but the Winter Solstice forecast even in jeopardy. Think some rapid changes over the next few days.

Nay, I only get BBC i player. C

Thanks. My roots are in Cheshire . I lived on a farm until moving to Sussex with work. My main home is in Salzburgerland but visit my off springs who live in Vancouver and Stockholm and of course back to Skipton a few times . Hi , not heard of that one . Will be visiting the Bull at Broughton and The Wholly Sheep Pub in Skipton for a few scoops of Timmy Taylors ! C

Arriving a John Lennon Airport for the first time on Friday for a meet up with Swedish part of the family then on wards to Skipton for Christmas and New Year. Booked a taxis as dont fancy the road trip on Friday. However, looking forward to a traditional English Christmas. You know , all the best things, Welsh lamb, Steak Pudding and mushy peas, Fish and Chips, Lancashire Cheese, Bakewell Tart and custard, Eccles cake and of course a visit to the pub ,finally Chinese takeway. All of these far better than they have in Austria and Sweden . Good also to stock up with Yorkshire tea to take back home. All i ask for is for no drizzle, mild and muck Northwest weather fest ? Cheers C

Well this picture might cheer you up. Tromso shopping centre in Norway. Note how they treat their snow with some love and respect. No crappy salt grit to flush it away. Back in Britain the streets are laden with the stuff at the first sign of snowflakes ( if you get any ) Preserve I say and NO TO SALT ! c

Lovely day for a spot of lunch on the local mountain. Warm as well. C

Morning all, I would go with that Nick. Yes," another manic Monday " in the words of the old Bangles song (oh oh ). Pressure on the forecasting agencies to come up with the goods and predict Christmas pickings. Would not like that , thinking egg on their faces ! So from the safety of my arm chair and morning comfort of a strong cup of Yorkshire tea, what do the models show this morning, I would say still a lot of uncertainties but as a safe bet, go for a rather cold Christmas Day for many with possibly a bit of snow up north and be always a bit vague ! The rest of the holiday ? Think we could have problems out west as developments along the Polar front heading into Blighty. Even end of this week not nailed. C

Probabaly myth ! C

The fax chart for Thursday shows a massive pressure differential between Southern Scandinavia and The Azores. As a result a powerful jet into The British Isles. So going by that that , I would expect some rapid changes Mi-WEEK in some of the outputs. Forecast for pretty hard to nail down as a result of chasing those fronts and pressure changes. Enjoy the roller coaster ! C

Morning Blighty, some rapid pressure changes to start in the next 48 hours. Eastern Alps 1040mb to less than 1000mb within the next 5 days. Some interesting weather developments Wed into Thurs across the British Isles. I still think the low track and intensity is open to change as the models get continue to feed in extra data over the coming days. So again , one to watch. So all in all best not look further out than 120t ( chart below is from ECM ). That of course still makes Christmas forecast very unpredictable . The run into Christmas does indicate some type of zonal battle over The British Isles along the polar front with cold Arctic air to North fighting out with the Atlantic mild sectors. Finer details as yet I would think not settled. As ever more runs needed but should be edge of the seat model viewing as the new weeks starts. C

Thanks for that in depth post. C

Hi again, just a bit of an update from latest ICON run. Just look at the power of that jet crashing into British Isles at 120t. Think you can expect rapid developments along that. Still hard to pin down to what evolves at this stage but looks like some stormy weather on the horizon prior to next weekend.

Morning all, UKMO run this morning produces a good example of a " curveball low " as I highlighted a couple of days ago ( above post ) Winds could be dangerous with this type of development , especially over The Southern North Sea. Still of course a bit early to be sure of its intensity and track as shown by ECM run. Whether it allows the cold to spread further south towards the end of next week cannot yet really be determined but now the potential is increasingly being shown. The "day after tomorrow " runs ( Monday ) with the weekend data added, will I dare say, cast some more light of this development and get some sort of consensus from the main models for a Christmas forecast, hopefully ! Enjoy your weekend. C