carinthian

Well this picture might cheer you up. Tromso shopping centre in Norway. Note how they treat their snow with some love and respect. No crappy salt grit to flush it away. Back in Britain the streets are laden with the stuff at the first sign of snowflakes ( if you get any ) Preserve I say and NO TO SALT ! c

Lovely day for a spot of lunch on the local mountain. Warm as well. C

Morning all, I would go with that Nick. Yes," another manic Monday " in the words of the old Bangles song (oh oh ). Pressure on the forecasting agencies to come up with the goods and predict Christmas pickings. Would not like that , thinking egg on their faces ! So from the safety of my arm chair and morning comfort of a strong cup of Yorkshire tea, what do the models show this morning, I would say still a lot of uncertainties but as a safe bet, go for a rather cold Christmas Day for many with possibly a bit of snow up north and be always a bit vague ! The rest of the holiday ? Think we could have problems out west as developments along the Polar front heading into Blighty. Even end of this week not nailed. C

Probabaly myth ! C

The fax chart for Thursday shows a massive pressure differential between Southern Scandinavia and The Azores. As a result a powerful jet into The British Isles. So going by that that , I would expect some rapid changes Mi-WEEK in some of the outputs. Forecast for pretty hard to nail down as a result of chasing those fronts and pressure changes. Enjoy the roller coaster ! C

Morning Blighty, some rapid pressure changes to start in the next 48 hours. Eastern Alps 1040mb to less than 1000mb within the next 5 days. Some interesting weather developments Wed into Thurs across the British Isles. I still think the low track and intensity is open to change as the models get continue to feed in extra data over the coming days. So again , one to watch. So all in all best not look further out than 120t ( chart below is from ECM ). That of course still makes Christmas forecast very unpredictable . The run into Christmas does indicate some type of zonal battle over The British Isles along the polar front with cold Arctic air to North fighting out with the Atlantic mild sectors. Finer details as yet I would think not settled. As ever more runs needed but should be edge of the seat model viewing as the new weeks starts. C

Thanks for that in depth post. C

Hi again, just a bit of an update from latest ICON run. Just look at the power of that jet crashing into British Isles at 120t. Think you can expect rapid developments along that. Still hard to pin down to what evolves at this stage but looks like some stormy weather on the horizon prior to next weekend.

Morning all, UKMO run this morning produces a good example of a " curveball low " as I highlighted a couple of days ago ( above post ) Winds could be dangerous with this type of development , especially over The Southern North Sea. Still of course a bit early to be sure of its intensity and track as shown by ECM run. Whether it allows the cold to spread further south towards the end of next week cannot yet really be determined but now the potential is increasingly being shown. The "day after tomorrow " runs ( Monday ) with the weekend data added, will I dare say, cast some more light of this development and get some sort of consensus from the main models for a Christmas forecast, hopefully ! Enjoy your weekend. C

Morning all , when ECM produces a powerful jet like that, things can change very rapidly. Still 10 days out till Christmas Day ! So I will best reserve judgement until " The Day after Tomorrow " ,sorry about the pun but there is a heck of a lot data to collect over the weekend and even then The Christmas Forecast will not be nailed . C

Of course 10 days is far out. However, the real point I was making is the potential for powerful winds to develop rather rapidly with-in this type of low formation as previously explained in the earlier post. C

Morning boys and girls, the extended chart from UKMO is of interest .. Yesterday , as highlighted in the above post was the possible formation of a "curve low ". This chart shows its formation and likely to deepen as it heads towards southern Scandinavia . These lows usually have a narrow warm sector on the southern flank and in the boundary zone where the colder rushes in there is a potential for very powerful winds to develop. Think this is definitely one to watch and could be an eventful Thurs into Friday next week. c

Hi Ben, not looking to bad. I know one of my former colleagues (retired weather forecaster ) @johnholmesknows Wengen very well and hopefully he may be able to advice ? C

Polar Low territory ! C

Morning all, some interesting charts this morning. The incoming cold coming shown at various rates with the GEM the most progessive and ECM slowly heading there. I draw your attention to the chart below (GEM op at 168T) . As also shown on the UKMO extended and ECM ,there is a formation of what we used to call a "curveball low " that forms along the top of the Huge Mid - Atlantic High between Southern Greenland and Labrador. It develops where the thermal gradient and pressure gradient is greatest and its this formation that can be rapid as highlighted in the post yesterday by @Nick F. So just another feature to watch with interest over the coming days but from a coldies point of view encouragingly improved charts from all the models this morning. However, for real cold I would like that Scandinavian trough to eventually dig south prior to Christmas and that would up the snow stakes for many in UK/ Euroland. C

If was a betting man, I would put punt on a Manchester white . Only going what I can read into this evening. C

Yes, Nick developments can be rapid along that tight thermal gradient. After a very mild fairly mundane coming weekends weather for many looks like things getting interesting just before Christmas. Our Central European forecasting team seems to think we in the Eastern Alps will remain for the most part on the warmer side of the Polar Front come the Christmas Holidays ( which is not what we really want in resort ) . However, the prospect of some developments across Southern Britain showing in their charts, especially windy across the south of the British Isles. Early days yet, but one to be watched I feel. Whether it brings rain or snow is nay impossible to predict this far out but confidence is fairly high regarding a colder Christmas across much of Northern Britain. In the longer term we need to see The Scandinavian trough and take hold and extent south. Not a lot to ask is it ? C

Just an update about possibles of pre - Christmas wind developments across Southern Britain( re -above post). The latest chart below from GFS shows quite a marked thermal gradient developing. In am just wondering whether any disturbance in that zone is going to cause a forecasting headache ? At the moment, I would say just nay impossible job for a forecaster to predict the Christmas weather in the finer detail but rather looks like Northern Britain should turn colder , but the bigger problem could be for Southern Britain ? I will leave you with that to ponder ! C

Good day TillyS, firstly thank you for your input. Certainly GFS extended charts were first to show the recent colder snap for the British Isles at the end of November and first to hastening its demise compared to the medium outputs shown by UKMO/ECM. So , in my view GFS has led the early winter charts so far ! hence, I think the other are coming on board with the eventual formation of a Scandinavian trough in the making. I expect we will soon see some speedy developments across the North Atlantic as the sqeeze on the baroclinic zone intensifies after this weekend benign weather. C

Yes , we are really cheered over here this morning to see ECM move to the GFS model longer term outputs ( DAY10).. The GFS model has for quite sometime stuck with this scenario with a colder run up towards So it would seem this morning a big plus for the GFS and retains its " pole position " as to coin a phrase ! Our own outputs indicate some big winds around 23/24th Dec across Southern Britain, possible due to another disturbance along the polar front but that is a long way off yet. However, overall a good move this morning towards a colder Christmas spell, especially after this comings weekend exceptional mild spell for many across Northern Britain . Currently , over here in The Eastern Alps, a bit wet and milder over the past few days but should see some sunshine over the weekend with some low temps. C

Yes, I remember this well. I was on duty at LGW and think 60F was reached down there with persistent cloud and drizzle. Think the cloud level almost hit the deck and some British Caledonian flights cancelled. If correct I think the rest of the winter became much colder , especially in Feb 79 ? C

Yes, good post. There is a famous Northern Soul song, " 7 days too long " and we all know this time next week, the models may be showing something completely different for the Christmas Period. You are right about the trend to a pattern change is showing in the longer term models this morning , but nay impossible to nail down the finer details this far out. C

Spot on. Crazy gang 1 C

This picture taken in 1989. Defo not me on that drop. Anyone guess where it was taken ? C

Yes, I remember receiving that DWR chart when I was a young kid which was posted by The Met Office subscription service. It arrived on 23 rd December. 3 days later we were in a deep freeze that lasted 10 weeks. Crazy turn around. I always wondered if todays super models would have picked it up going by that synoptic chart. C