Harry

I keep getting signs which are either a positive omen, or cruel - in order of occurrence: (non-meteorologically related btw) 1. There was a lot of thunder from a film on TV from the other room earlier 2. When I was playing MarioKarts on the Wii earlier, I KEPT being shrunk by those poxy lightning bolts 3. Just watching Escala perform on BGT, and what was in the background - lightning bolts. Plus the humidity now, both outside and in the house is very oppressive!

I said earlier I thought it had gotten quite a bit fresher, but that it may have been the temperature dropping confusing me...well, just been outside again and... FWOAH does it feel HUMID! Sun gone completely down now, out in a thin t-shirt and not the slightest feeling of coldness/coolness, just warmth and moisture. This has to be a good sign - but, will wait and see what comes off! Yes same here too - plus there doesnt seem to be a lot of potency snapped from the encroaching French imports either :lol: Just hope the humidity over here will give them some punch.

From that particular scenario I think 27C was quite plausible, and not unexpected for June. This was verified by I think Darren Bett?, who had a punt on a long range forecast and suggested a similar figure........... HOWEVER....the forecast seems to have changed a fair bit since then, and judging by other forecasts I've seen, 17C would be a closer bet, lol!

If that situation comes off, I'm going to plump for even higher than that. I'd say the SE quarter of the UK (London in particular) will see temperatures up to 27-28C. It will be June after all ....well, that would be nice anyway. That particular scenario (which will change no doubt) has air flowing straight out of Africa - we are talking some v warm air!!

If that comes off....hummana hummana hummana! lol Apologies if that sounds vulgar, but if that comes off we are talking v high temperatures and potentially super thunderstorms (light drizzle for Paul Sherman & Co)

I so hope to be able to go next year The pics and vids coming back from the 2009 chase are incredible!

I always believe that a wetter spring gives a better summer - chiefly because the last two springs have been glorious leading to nasty summers, whereas 2006 iirc was a very cold and wet spring, leading to a very hot summer. I can live with May being cool and wet (well, the last few days have been wet anyway) if June/July/August are going to be hot and offering good plumes!

Starting to gag a bit for storms - not had a direct hit so far in 2009, though have seen two storms nevertheless. Any hopes of a plume for the end of the week have been dashed too!

Says something when that is a DISAPPOINTING day - no gusty winds, only penny sized hail.... I know you'd expect more going all that way and spending a lot of money, however....thats still a hell of a lot more than the crappy showers we are getting here, lol Even our hopes of a plume by the end of the week have been dashed - from superb cape opportunities and LI -6 to -8, to nothing!!!

One word - AWESOME!!! Can't wait until next year when I might get to go!!!

I think it all depends on how many plumes we get. The SE can get pummelled by many storms in one plume event - last month being a prime example. Both storms I've witnessed in 2009 came on two consecutive days from the same plume event. However, later in the month when we had the home grown storms, the SE was hardly touched whereas the Midlands in comparison got pummelled. If the long range forecast is to be believed, and we are in for a 'hot summer', I will presume that we are likely therefore to get more plume events and therefore, I will stick my neck out and say the SE will get more than the Midlands. Having said that, it will probably be a dry summer and the likes of NW Scotland will win, lol

Let's make this an ASDA/Tesco advert war lol! Come to the SE, as our storms rock, more so our imports from the continent! In the UK, you can't beat a Spanish Plume storm IMO!

Last year may be have been slightly above average, with regards temperatures and rainfall (actually, rainfall probably more than 'just above average') However I've always lived in the south-east, and if my memory serves me correctly, without fail we'd have a least half a dozen decent heatwaves where temperatures would hit 30C+ for at least a few days before storms moved in. The years 2003 (38.5C max) and 2006 (28C - 36C max over 3 weeks uninterrupted) however have left people expecting more, hence the massive perceived negativity of the last two summers. In 2007, I think we hit 30C on ONE day, and 2008 about the same. Therefore, if we have just one week of 30C+ temperatures with no rain, the MetO will be seen as being right on the money - safe bet for them IMO!

Move to Kent - we do quite well here each year for thunder, though not overly for snow. Easterlies in winter tend to deliver flurries, with perhaps on average 2 maybe 3 accumulation events, seldom more though than 2-3 inches. This year however was very much an exception. Northerlies in the part of Kent I live, tend not to deliver much snow. Thunder however is a different story - Kent is placed in a prime position for imports, and there have been some significant events over the years. The close proximity as well to the London 'Urban heat island' also improves our chances too, particularly from cold fronts advancing East. The relatively warmer summer temperatures across the SE too also improve our chances.

I wouldnt be so sure regarding the power of particularly French, German and Polish storms - some of the supercells that explode over these regions each year are HUGE. When cold air descends out of the alps, warm moist air advects out of the med and dry warm air comes out of Siberia, I would think theoretically conditions were just as favourable as the US for huge supercells. Thoughts?

Surely one qualified meteorologist, and someone with an A*-C in GCSE Geography/Geology could be just as viable with regards to forecasting flooding? Then hire a capable telephonist and administrator et voila? I would be confident, from the geological/geographical side at least, to be able to compile data and therefore say where ground is likely to be saturated, with a high water table, and therefore to predict where flooding is likely. A knowledge of the water table, obtaining associated data, underlying rock across the country, river locations inc features such as meanders, contour changes and geographical profile, urban run off, evapo-transpirational processes (leaves and vegetation catching an absorbing rainfall in summer), where rivers have flooded before and whether the flood defences are adequate...common sense isnt it? Seems another ridiculous over-spend to me, especially when quite a lot of the floods in recent times have been caused by sudden downpours/thunderstorms, which as we know all too well are virtually unpredictable with regards location and severity, and the warnings which are issued as a result aren't until the storm has already kicked off and started the flooding process.... It really is complete nonsense IMO! Next flood that occurs - "why wasn't I informed", "how could you not have foreseen this", or on the contrary, "I am sick of moving all of my furniture up and down stairs everytime someone thinks it might rain heavily"... Another waste of valuable millions when common sense should have dictated a far less costly approach to this 'problem'.

I am going to defend our 'wet fart' storms here... :lol: I know our storms aren't a whisker on those seen in the US and Down Under - however, when we do get those high elevated MCS's from France, or when we do get severe storms, where lightning is still frequent accompanied by some beautiful cloud structures, I am more than happy! One thing which I value about our storms - is the fact I can enjoy them, without having to worry about my house and car being smashed to splinters by 100+mph winds, golf ball/baseball hail, or an F3+ tornado. The Birmingham and London tornadoes are testament that our 'little' storms are still capable of producing exceptionally powerful and damaging winds! I for one have been fortunate (depends which side of the fence you sit on really) to have seen a large rope funnel cloud descend from a severe storm (in Kent), come down to within a few hundred yards of the ground and then travel directly over my head and then out to sea. Had it touched down....well, I cant speculate on what would have happened - but lets just say, that even only dangling from the cloud base, it created enough wind to scare any red blooded human being. Bring on the big guns next year in the US - but I will happily keep our little storms in the mean time, knowing that if I am lucky enough to catch a large tornado next year, it wont be my house and family in its path

Hi dogs Yeah I saw this video only the other day in fact - absolutely incredible!! Just noted the comment regarding postive strikes, I have seen quite a few from storms here, including one last Wednesday night! The cloud lit up and this huge bolt shot from within and struck only about 4-5 miles away. It was a decaying MCS so I am pretty sure it was from a relatively high altitude - note the term relatively lol. The most incredible positive strike I saw, without question, was about 5 years ago. There'd been a fairly active storm, which moved on through quite quickly. The sun had already come out and the rain stopped. Then this huge bolt(s) hit in direct view of my lounge window, one of the few times I'd seen lightning, in the sunshine backed by light blue skies. I actually thought I was seeing things - until the incredible bang and boom that followed seconds later - it honestly felt like a concorde or tornado fighter plane was firing up in my back garden - cabinets, plates and glasses rattled like crazy!! I also remember seeing a documentary (a couple of times in fact) stating there was evidence to suggest there was a higher percentage of lightning bolts in NW Europe that were positive, compared to those around the rest of the world! I thought it was bizarre, but then I saw it again at a later date - sadly I cannot remember the documentary. Has anyone else heard this?

Off the top of my head, we had at least 7 or 8 good thunderstorm events in NW Kent/London during the course of last year, with other days of passing storms (flashing skies, distant rumbles). The two dates I can recall of particular note was 25th May, when that great MCS came up overnight from France - plenty of thunder and lightning from that baby, and it lasted a fair while too (1 of 6 videos from YouTube below, not taking by me) The other storm of note of course was 6th August, that great long line of thunderstorms which erupted between N France and SE England, and went on for hours - for more than an hour it produced the most frequent lightning I have ever seen in this country (for one 60 second spell I counted, I saw 26 individual flashes of lightning) (photos below) http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=h...l%3Den%26um%3D1 Compared to other parts of the country, I cannot complain when I live in the UK's 'lightning alley' - though although we get hit relatively quite often, the number which sail past by about 20 miles - soooo frustrating!!

There are things regarding thunder which I have detected time and time again but have never really understood why. Has anyone ever noticed these before, and if so is there any explanations for why? 1. I've noticed thunder at night tends to be louder than during the day. Is this because there is less background noise (planes, road traffic, building work, children's noise, birds etc) or does lightning tend to be more powerful at night, or bear different characteristics? 2. Sometimes, when you get close CG lightning bolts - one will cause a crackle and loud BANG/BOOM - the other one will just crackle and nothing more. Is the type of thunder caused purely determined by the strength of the bolt, number of 'strokes' etc, or are there other factors? Thanks in advance for any suggestions

It is truly awe-inspiring! There is a similar video on Youtube, called 'Very Loud Very Flashy Storm' or words to that effect. The lightning intensity is incredible, yet so too the thunder!! Out of this world!! I remember storms like this when I was growing up - similar heavy rain, similar intense lightning, similar LOUD bangs each time - the only difference was the frequency of the lightning - if I remember rightly, probably strobe flash and bang every 10-15 seconds or so. I havent seen a storm like it for some time though sadly.

Enjoy Sorry if I've put this in the wrong section - as its a chase video thought it feel more at home here

2006 for me was perhaps the most summery summer I can remember - my first year at work, in London of all places, saw are BITTERLY cold March/April. May iirc was one of sunshine and showers. In to June/July, the sun really came out, and I remember a 3 week spell where daily max ranged from a low of 28C, to a high of 36C, majority of the days iirc between 31C and 34C. It was hot and humid. As londonsnow correctly pointed out, hot summers in London, particularly for workers can be unbearable - with tube temperatures ranging easily between 40 and 50C, overground trains immensely uncomfortable along with buses. The plus side though of working and living around London, is a relatively higher frequency and severity of UK thunderstorms!! Lets just hope 2009 is like 2006, with more thunderstorms!! :lol:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html Massive thunderstorms already well underway across what seems to be E Germany and into Poland (cant tell the borders from that image) My mate has very good friends who are Polish, however I cannot remember where they live in Poland, somewhere near Krakau I think...how they are safe! :unsure:

Weren't we here in the SE under a Level 2 only a month or two ago?