Harry

To be fair, very heavy is probably an understatement! :lol: If that intensity holds up and it continues to faff around that area, roads will be rivers in a very short space of time! MetO have extended the weather watch area for today now too!

OMG! Look at the rain across the South now!! :lol: The rain approaching the SE is showing signs of intensifying too! Are sferics being detected?

That is the NW radar isn't it?

I hope so, I am so storm starved now I could hop in a kayak and make my way to the States early :lol:

Just been outside and without question it feels warmer than today. The breeze has dropped and of what breeze there is it feels far less chilly. Also seems to be coming from a more southerly direction as opposed to easterly!

Am liking this at the moment!

I have a fitness test in the morning, so in some ways am quite pleased rain is forecast. Also, I have nothing planned of the afternoon so COULD be a good excuse to cloud spot :lol: Wouldn't it be ironic (fingers crossed anyway) - if the one time the risk of storms is very marginal, and many parameters have to come together at the same time, will be the day we all get our first proper storms! Unlike the previous plume set ups whereby conditions were almost perfect at times and naff all came of it.

GFS is increasingly pushing any thundery risk further north from here - both for tomorrow and tuesday...need I say more. Sun trying to come here at the moment, saw some blue skies 5 mins ago!

I cannot believe the MetO haven't updated the warnings to take action as yet. It has been raining in the SW for hours now, exceptionally heavy and its still showing no signs of moving. I dont see why an alert would be issued once flooding has occurred and people have already become stranded in cars etc!

Rain looks exceptionally intense across the SW now

Not sure if this has been posted before - but it's one of the most surreal tornadoes I have ever seen. It seems to last for ages, go through several cycles of growth, while moving backwards and forwards. See what you think.

Cool site

:lol: Blunt as you like lol If you thought Cardiff was wet earlier look south - potentially hours of v heavy rain on the way for S Wales, and depending on the intensity and how far N and E it swings, further heavy rain for the W Midlands!!

I wouldn't call the weather in Cardiff at the moment an MCS - but I then I look forward to being educated if I'm wrong. :lol: Blimey - that's more than we've had here in God knows how long - MW is very good for rainfall data in this area :lol: Very quiet here today, cool too, but I feel some humidity in the air. With so much cloud and very little warming convective potential is probably zilch!

Azores High seems to be absent at the moment! That area of the low pressure in its place looks a bit potent for the time of the year - though wasn't there the first tropical storm of the year in the Atlantic last week? Maybe its the remnants of that. In recent years, particularly the summer months, areas such as Gloucs have received the brunt of the most significant rainfall! The first few times have been branded, as usual, 'freak events'. If we get another year of severe flooding in and around the areas of Gloucs and the W Midlands , I think the residents will have to come to terms with the fact that they live in 'flood-plain alley'!

Me! :lol:

Cant wait

Precip on radar is pepping up quite a bit fairly close to here, especially the newly forming cell south of Birmingham. Nothing, to a pretty large blob of yellow in 30 mins Sod all to here of note, though the precip N of London has pepped also quite a bit in the last half hour!

me three

Distinct LACK of convection around here.....again!! Maybe Sunday and Tuesday might yield something for here...hopefully

Nice one, shall keep an eye out indeed! :lol:

Was saying on the way into the office a few mins ago, the skies look like either there has been a storm, or there will be a storm! Judging by the forecasts, probably neither ...but the weather does look dodgy nonetheless!

Really don't know why I bother - all change again on the GFS front!? Plume event in about 10 days back on, possibly! I promise I'll be good and stop looking at it :o

Although 5 days away, but I am liking the CAPE/storm risk maps for the SE on Tuesday Incidentally, CAPE/Storm risk maps for the following Tuesday have completely ruled out a plume for now.

Well said :winky: Their chances of survival in that case won't be favourable as I'd probably do the same!