Harry

Turning increasingly interesting over the Channel at the moment!

Some good convection kicking off over head again - they seem to be towering quite high but its hard to tell when you're beneath it, lol

Not a wet year here in the SE by any stretch, if anything relatively v dry! We've had about 70% the avg annual rainfall to date, but would be considerably lower if we didnt have the foot of snow in Feb, which saw monthly rainfall of 130% the avg. Spring has probably been one the warmest in a long time - just ironic that we should enter June and it be colder than the previous month to two months!

Big cells now across SW - cells now as they leave Kent and run into N London, showing signs of intensification. This takes the biscuit!! Though, front in the channel making landfall now around the IoW with almost instantaneous intensification. Quite intense looking downpours across N France also.

Same here - just wonder if that front over the channel comes ashore enough, and I presume that the time timing should be good, whether that will trigger that available energy into the form of intense and hopefully thundery rain, as opposed to individual cells which at the moment look weak.

This rain is looking like running ashore within an hour or so?? Can we expect to see intensification as it does - hope so :lol: UPDATE - That pitiful shower has now faded to nothing in the space of a couple of miles...I'm wondering if the approaching front is killing off the shower potential? I'm not sure of the mechanics of it but you often here forecasters talk of approaching fronts killing off convection before running in. Lengthy, warm spells of sunshine! If anything, to look outside at the moment you'd think we were under the influence of HP!

Pitiful looking shower about the pass lol - a face flanel would produce more wetness :lol:

That's not good for them I feel - the last thing they need is more heavy rain, especially on T'storm proportions! Some more here would be nice though :lol: am keeping a curious eye on that hook around the L pressure in the channel/N France! Am hopeful that if it follows the same pattern as last night, we may get some intense rainfall at least, may be a banger or two :lol: EDIT - Well, those cells came to much didnt they...lol! They looked so promising, then, disaster! I know its early in the day, but most indications have been for an early initiation as opposed to late. I am thinking all eyes south to see how far north that pulse gets around the LP

What is the expectation on the area of precip to the South? Seems to have undergone some intensifcation in the last hour :lol: and at the moment looks like it might run up over us this evening. Thoughts?

The one overhead is getting darker and darker - fear though should it 'deliver' it will have slided past. Though to my south, one cell especially has an exceptionally dark base; I get the impression it is towering nicely but I cant see for this one on top of my house. I presume this is what you can see MW to your West.

Changing here now, what was looking mess is now looking more and more organised. A cell coming right overhead, which I have a great feeling, will turn thundery within the next 30 mins to an hour. It seems to be moving N (ish), darkening base! Cant say specifically why, it just feels like it will turn!! Good luck you chaps to my North. Meanwhile I have a huge cauliflower to my S following behind this overhead cell!

Those radar returns across southern counties are looking nice! Sky looking a bit messy here at the moment, which may affected convection! Though, we are at the earliest part of the day, and who knows what will happen as the low moves across to the south

Thanks for that mate Right, eyes are open! Can see some nice towers, and darkening skies towards the south! Will start to take some piccies I think!

I hope you are right Brickfielder

See some suspect cells to the south, I THINK I can see some anvils developing?? Anyone confirm? Definitely warming up now - was at the running track this morning and the evaporation off the track was amazing!! Hoping for some action later!

Lol! Trust me, it wasnt a supercell - nothing to get up a 6:30am for, just a few crackly rumbles and sheet lightning (3 I think) But, look at how it intensified to the south and then as it moved a bit further North, death becomes it. Yes, I got some thunder and lightning, but when it realised where it was it soon turned the switch off lol EDIT - Checked the MetO regional forecast, nothing much in the way of thundery weather expected this afternoon, though did mention possibly thundery showers for the SE. If we get hours of sunshine, maybe. If not, all eyes to Tuesday! Atm, some very heavy rain likely throughout the day, though there are high CAPE levels over N France throughout Monday into the evening. Could bring some possibe thundery activity!

Just mod/heavy rain at the moment, electrical activity has all but gone! Not too encouraged by Liam Dutton's forecast for two reasons: 1. Didnt mention thunder on his forecast, either referring to the current situation, or for any thunder in the showers this afternoon. Seemed exceptionally vague about shower development and intensity. 2. According to the BBC graphics (dont we love 'em) it will still be raining across London by 3pm with one or two showers further west. We shall see about that! lol According to the BBC at 7.15 this morning, very low - didnt mention thunder for anywhere in the UK. As above, the graphics suggested the rain band not finally clearing until 3pm, despite the tail end of the rain already moving across! I really hate those useless graphics! EDIT - Just checked CAPE values and they havent changed much from last night - with the rain almost stopped here now (nice one BBC), the chances of getting some sun should be good and we should see showers sparked off later. As for later, had a fair few mm's of rain, if the sun gets out and it warms up, who knows. Originally was going for yes but the BBCs lack of thunder in the forecast makes me think otherwise.

Yay THUNDER AND LIGHTNING!!! :lol: <_< Seems to have eased a bit now, though the rain bit earlier was torrential! Still raining fairly heavily though.

Will have to check it out later in the morning tomorrow - hopefully by the time I log on around late morning/lunchtime, I'll be posting some shots of towering Cbs - wont hold my breath though!

Look on the satellite here - you will see along the line of cloud currently over the SSW, a streaking anvil (of sorts anyway) running out over the Bristol Channel, across Wales towards the Irish Sea. Another point to note, how many low pressure systems want to line up? One over C/N Europe, one over the SW and one over the Atlantic, all in a long line! Dont see that often!!

Can't help but notice Andover on that map and think of Andover, Kansas (F5 1991! in the US) Obviously, I hope the same fate doesn't bestow itself on Andover, Hants!

I think you're safe now

AMAZING isn't it - I dont think anyone envisaged such dramatic intensification!! Just goes to prove to the sceptics doesn't it - you don't need solar heating, you dont need uncomfortable humidity and you certainly don't need high temperatures! One of the coldest, cloudiest and rainiest days of the last two months has seen the most exciting rainfall event this spring/summer!

Never mind - I'll hypothesise to resist agreeing with you 1. We've had such little rainfall compared to the highlighted areas, we'd be lucky to grow watercress on our ground, let alone flood (touch wood) 2. The MetO weather watches have been generally quite inaccurate lately, so if at the moment we're not in, tomorrow we should be

Right, lets hope the electrical activity and a share of the intensity (after all, a bit parched in the SE) spreads East a bit