Harry

You do sound Geordiesnow like the NE gets very much the raw end of the deal... May I suggest you consider moving south, to say the Midlands

Wow - didnt realise I would hit such a nerve! lol...it was a jokey comment btw, hence the cheeky :lol: I didn't realise I would hit such a nerve... But anyway, as I am being asked to justify, and feel free to correct me if I am wrong: 1. We do get snow in the SE - had well over a foot this year (not a regular occurrence, but nonetheless). Hope that justifies that comment. 2. SE in the summer, on average, is hotter than the Midlands - I thought that was a pretty much established fact tbh. Hottest recorded UK temperatures both before the 2003 record, AND the 2003 record, were in the SE. More often than not also, London/Kent/Surrey in particular top the temperature charts in the country. Not necessarily by much, but higher nonetheless. 3. Night time temperatures on average, are also warmer in the SE than the Midlands. Again, I thought that was a pretty much established fact. You only have to watch most tv forecasts to see this!? 4. Storms - this is obviously subjective, depending on whether you as a person define 'better' storms as cloud height, how photogenic, lightning frequency, lightning type (spider, anvil crawlers etc), hail size etc. Now, I cant say I have ever seen 'huge hail', but I have certainly seen some spectacular lightning displays (anvil crawlers, spider etc) and certainly some very frequent lightning. We get quite a number of imports including MCS' every year along with numerous home growns in the SE - last time I checked the Midlands wasn't AS exposed to the very active imported MCS' as the SE, but I concede you will get some nonetheless.. Aug 6th last year, had a reported strike rate of 120 strikes per MINUTE as the storms first made landfall. 4 hours of action later (and the rain stopping) I went outside and calculated a strike rate of 26+ strikes per minute. Now, if you get storms like that in the Midlands, then I will accept these are not 'better' than Midlands storms and hold my hands up and withdraw my comments with immediate effect. I note also, that the SE gets a high number of elevated storms in the form of imports, which makes for good lightning viewing. In my experience, they tend to be less shielded by heavy precip. 5. Tornadoes - Birmingham had the tornado of 2005, London had the tornado of 2007 (or 2006 ) - I have also witnessed two funnel clouds in Kent, one in particular a very defined rope leading about half the way (or more) to the ground. Now I get the impression (again, correct me if I am wrong) through a jestful comment I have upset some people. If Geordiesnow and any other 'storm starved' people wish to move to Midlands, please don't let my rash and unjustifiable comments put you off moving to there B)

Nah move to the SE! Hotter temperatures and more/better storms, AND we get snow too :o

Wasn't this one MW, though looked similar - bright and frequent orange flashes. The storm I saw was to my W and then NW towards London. I can't be sure if I am confusing events, but there was one night in particular when there was a big storm over London, and then storms to my far East which ran up towards Essex, which also produced some quite nice lightning, up into the anvil too! Was a dusky blue sky above me in between it all, lol

I cant actually remember the date which is annoying though what you describe definitely sounds like the storm I saw! Because of the time of day, it was hard to tell whether supercellular features were present or not - what I did see however, was a huge Cb with well formed, dense anvil (all black as the sun was behind it) with frequent lightning at both low, mid and high levels of the storm. I describe it as a mothership because it resembled the 'mother ship' in the film Independence Day

Can see a lot here - multiple towers trying to build!! At 7:30 this morning it was 17C and risen rapidly since then. Why oh why so far this year, has the sunshine been out, temperatures risen rapidly, humidity been up and towers been forming - when real potential has not been present for storm development. Its soooooo frustrating

Great shots, Jurgen

I've not noticed anything here - other than its 24C and humid, while rather cloudy at the same time. My Mum mentioned earlier that apparently Sunday could possibly be stormy ?? not sure which forecast she watched and what areas it referred to though. Just paid my deposit for Tour 1 in 2010 - ideally would have gone for Tour 2 or 3, but can't guarantee that I wont have exams scheduled for then. Still, something to look forward to :lol:

Estofex and MetO not going with storms tomororw - in fact the entire area under the NW Storm Risk and CAPE runs isnt even forecast for light showers by the MetO. Will make for interesting watching tomorrow! Any ideas when the next plume set up might appear? I agree, storm activity is decreasing, and IMO Climate Change is without question in full swing. 10 years ago, I'd get every year strings of storms. Nowadays...??? However, I am of the opinion that the fewer storms we do get (can't speak for other parts of the country on this) are more intense and severe than 10 years ago (not exclusively of course but generally). 28th May and 6th Aug last year were two very intense thunderstorms nights, with lightning at various stages flashing every 2-3 seconds. In 2007, fewer storms, but again two which ring in my mind - one a severe, mother ship storm which hung over London and produced frequent and spectacular lightning, while the other was a superb MCS which engulfed all of Kent and produced some of the most amazing lightning I have seen in the UK. 2006, while being one of the hottest summers I have ever experienced in the UK, for the temperatures (28C-36C across continous three week period) produced very little thundery activity considering. Be it excess CO2 and methane, lack of recent solar activity, aliens - the climate is changing. It is time we woke up to that fact, told the MetO computers that fact, and all moved to Oklahoma

Hi Jane Louise, Yeah I am pretty much in the same boat as you. Have had no direct hits from thunderstorms yet this year, though did have v close by storms with illuminations and one rogue postive bolt (producing the only thunder I have heard in 2009 so far, and that was April). What is more frustrating, is that I live in the South East, and on at least 3 days this year, 30 miles down the road has been CLOBBERED by really quite torrential thunderstorms, while each and everyone has only brushed me! Monday was by far the biggest dissapointment - humid all day, gorgeous towering Cbs, vicious black skies following from the South for most of the afternoon - with not ONE single rumble or flash! Yet literally less than 10 miles away in pretty much every direction of the compass, either/or both was observed. I think 2009 thus far has been an atrocious year for storms for many areas including mine. People constantly talk of the fact that 'the seas are cold' and the rest of it - for as long as I can remember May has always without fail, produced at LEAST one, often more, decent thunderstorms! Last May for example, we had that great MCS (May 28th) which came up from France in the evening/overnight period which produced frequent, at times spectacular lightning. During both my Year 11 and Year 13 exams (remember these as both examples were exam weeks) I was up at NIGHT watching great lightning displays, as well as during one exam the thunder was reverberating around the Sports Hall! This year so far has been an immense disappointment - lets just hope June is far more electric! EDIT - WHATS THIS? Juding by both the CAPE and Storm Risk Map on GFS, looks like London, and along the M4 corridor could be the breeding ground for a few storms tomorrow - bearing in mind I am off work tomorrow (therefore not in London) to say I am p'd off is a rather excessive understatement!!!

Just thought this comment was interesting - not expecting much but something to keep an eye on over the latter part of the weekend maybe: This does not tie up well with NW GFS - the moderate levels of CAPE over France/Benelux for this period are virtually matched across a fair portion of the Western UK, yet only the 'threat of some showers reaching the far SE' gets mentioned - curious! The only thing that remotely gets me hopeful here is the fact that any 'showers' will come across the most minimum of channel, therefore minimal effect. But we'll wait and see a lot nearer the time.

Blimey - definitely made the right call to go to bed when I did then - may well of heard that rumble detected towards London, but I dont think staying awake to the early hours for that is worth it. Woke this morning to heavy rain, which lasted from when I woke up at 6:30 (was raining before that also) and finished around 9 - some of it was quite heavy, feeding on the humidity, but now much cooler and fresher - though a tad humid still. Looking ahead on the GFS it doesn't look good for any storm outbreaks until around the first week of June - though, obviously this will change either for or against us in the coming days. There is a slight blip in that by the way of a little burst of CAPE for the Midlands/W Midlands in between, but will probably vapourise in the mean time. With regards the MetO/BBC, I know the weather is immensely complex and virtually impossible to predict, but my feeling is something is wrong with their computers, or meteorologists interpreting them/running them. When I was younger, when storms, particularly 'nasty' or 'torrential' storms, were forecast to move up from France, they'd arrive without delay. If there was a lightning symbol Kent/W Sussex area, I'd stay up at night and wait for the lightning to pass by (once I'd conquer the fear of course). If it was over London and Kent, it would bang and flash over head. Now though....?? I can't help but think there is something wrong - either with the MetO and BBC's computers or calibre of meteorologists, OR, which is quite likely IMO, climate change is now taking effect and the computer systems are not updated to take this into account. Without a doubt in my mind, something is wrong with the forecasting, not just with severe events but the general events, like a cold front sweeping in bring moderate/heavy rain across SE areas - there's been a few occasions already this year where the forecast has been for persistent rain and it has been sunny all day....go figure. And, while I am on it, another plea for the BBC symbols to revert back to the good old days, with also an AM forecast and a PM forecast, and not a running clock which is almost always inaccurate.

Nah I've had enough now - not waiting up anymore. If I hear anything or see anything I will update tomorrow. Night all

Just awaiting the next MetO return, if its a bad showing, I'm off for some sleep (and maybe a cry lol)...jokes. GRRR! It actually looks ok - some very intense returns around to the SW, and occasionally heavier bursts of rain here, with what sound like huge drops. I know I'll switch off, start drifting off and then something will start. Similarly, I will sit here like a pleb for the next hour listening to intermittent burst of light and heavy rain, while nothing happens for me to see or hear.... The weather, dont ya love it. EDIT - Just did a Dark Knight heads or tails game, and we know tails never fails, well, heads came up trumps in this instance! According to 'the coin', it will.

If you did, I am annoyed because I didnt see it, lol

Here's hoping seasons - rain getting increasingly heavier now too! I am only about 8-10 miles away from you nanu, same kind of area I suppose. That makes two of us then, and anyone else in the catchment stretching from here to London.

Snap! Have been at the laptop almost non-stop since 9am this morning and watching patiently. I can feel the moisture pouring through the window onto me - the room is not overly warm, but very muggy! It is raining steadily at the moment. The PS3 is making a high pitch moaning sound like a tornado siren in the mid-west - these omens are really quite nasty, lol EDIT - Rain getting heavier by the sounds of it. Am I the only one in the SE corner today who hasn't seen lightning or heard thunder? I mean, seriously, lol

No flashes or thunder to report here. With everything moving NE or NNE I wait patiently to see what will come of this Crawley/Redhill 'gossip', lol! Breeze getting up a bit here too.

Not sure what to make of the latest MetO return. Weakened here some what, but some massive intensification a bit to the West which has every chance of moving towards the S London/NW Kent area. And what with this conversion zone now setting up above us - it will be a case of if it starts flashing and banging great, if it doesn't...nooooooo! lol

The conversion zone causing rapid ascent of precip? Or, the rain we are getting is merely a small shower ahead of the main band. If you were in the SE at the moment, with the humidity, plus the other signs making it feel 'thundery' in the air, you'd know :lol: That said, sod all of note to report, though MW's latest comment is more promising.

Just started raining here - huge drops by the sounds of it - rain came out of nowhere. No lightning observed though, nor thunder heard. If it has stopped in Maidstone, Eastbourne and the likes I think my hopes have seriously faded. But then again, something in me says that if the convection is increasing, it will be holding more rain aloft, therefore less hitting the ground and why we'd think its all fading - i.e. attention drawn again to the conversion - rapid uplift will cause a decrease in precip on the ground. Next MetO loop in particular will be crucial. Still very very humid here though. EDIT - I am at odds as to why the convective discussion board is now a battle for who can claim the borders of the Midlands, lol. I don't know whether in terms of weather forecasts I count as London or Kent, as I lift effectively on the border, about a mile or two inside Kent. So we all have to live with it, lol

Confirms the ESE breeze then that convergence chart. Now then - wait and see what happens.

Cant say I've noticed to be honest - only the cloud streaming up from the South, and a breeze which feels like an increasing SE/E. If there is cloud coming in from the NW, this will mean certainly some conversion taking place, and with that one of two things: Boom, or bust EDIT - It has weakened some what but still quite intense enough, and as is being reported it is still producing some lightning. The next 30 mins are critical. I am going to try and see if any lightning appears before the rain arrives and I am at pains to wait for it to arrive (windows SE and NW, not S or SW)

I hope you are right. Noticed too that a slight breeze is picking up - I cant tell for sure about this, but it feels as though it is coming from the SE - can anyone else verify? Certainly can see (thanks to the London illumination from the W) high cloud streaming in from the S/SW. Could this breeze picking up be the shear you were looking for VillagePlank? Doesn't surpise me really - I tried to gauge wind direction, and as I moved my arm the air felt heavy.

Thought I saw a very distant flash too, but not sure if it was a train line.