The Eagle

ICON is an upgrade by 144, looks a good deal better if we want to not see the core cold in to the continent.

Anyone have the UKMO @ 168 hrs?

No one knows. Keep an open mind and don't get sucked in to something that could leave you bitterly disappointed instead of bitterly cold Everything is still 160 hrs + February 2012 was traumatic enough i'd have thought many lessons were learned from that!

GFS only now starting to pick up what the higher resolution models were showing yesterday. My own opinion is that this is actually in trouble despite the GFS See ICON for just how much trouble that initial strengthening of the northern arm of the jet 72 - 96 hrs could have. UKMO, I rest my case. 144 - may by luck work out as you put it. I think that is going in to the continent. Damage is done at 96 hrs, not 120 hrs... Don't mean to be negative - just realistic.

I warned about it last night. The northern arm of the jet is putting energy through our north. It was on every model except the GFS. Ignored of course. Now the GFS is picking it up. UKMO is ok at 144 - but could now go in to the continent. The trend is there.

I think talking of how long the cold snap would be is premature. Big risks 72 - 96 hrs. Blue in the face saying it. Need to see changes. GFS with the exception of JMA is on it's own in keeping the northern arm of the jet quiet. All the other models have a different version which would effect things drastically later on. Hate to see this collapse but if GFS goes the way of the rest posters are not going to be happy i'd imagine. Not saying it will happen but the risk is there.

Not at all. Great GFS. Just saying that those ignoring what is patently evident across the models, the op runs at any rate, (apart from JMA/GFS) probably should be discussing it. It's being ignored though... I guess people want a good night's sleep.

Both NAVGEM and Arpege 18z's are showing the issue that is potentially a real problem for prospects at 96 hrs, namely that bit more energy in to the northern arm of the Jet. GFS looking a bit lonely with it's "clean" evolution now. Great run though.

Control run looks a carbon copy

Looks like a live hard, die young event on the GFS...Cold air clearing south coast of England by the Tuesday.

GFS does seem a little more progressive here. Dud run

The "problem", if there is one, is between 72 and 96 hrs. Feel free to disagree. Differing opinions are welcome to me.

Also the average is distorted with the few runs that are 10 - 15c milder...in reality it would be lower when they are discarded.

They are from yesterday. 12z is out on Meteociel (and it's good too)

Don't think so. GEM GFS ICON UKMO Crucial time period for the evolution here. The differences are fairly significant.

Distorting the mean a bit as well. Quite positive.

It does look like the ECM op run is on the milder side of it's ensemble suite for most.

The models don't agree at 96 hrs. ECM GFS That difference in the trajectory of those height rises (more north north-east on ECM) and that extra bit of energy over the top may look benign enough there - it's actually very significant with real changes at 120 + on the back of it. GFS/NAVGEM/ARPEGE/GEM/JMA - these are very similar and give us the best outcome. The others are not so great. Plenty of time - it's going to change, hopefully it goes the way of the consortium listed. At least we'll see convergence over the next couple of runs.

I think overall we are still on for an exceptionally cold hit. I think there is more uncertainty creeping in though which is inevitable, let's be honest. Actually seeing quite a split now in evolution to 96 hrs. Hopefully one way or another we'll have more agreement on the 72 - 96hr forecast by tomorrow which will help clarify things for us later on.

Worth noting the damage on the ECM is done by 96 hrs and not in lala land. Note the trajectory of height increases is more north east rather than north ala GFS etc..

That would be Feb 2012 all over again. Very possible - hope it's not a trend

Oh dear, the first breach... Having nightmares - re: Feb 2012

To my eyes the ECM is the exact same run as the 00z only 12 hours later. Could be wrong but looks that way to me...

96 hrs more or less in line with ICON rather than GFS.

GME*