I don't think it's over just yet. NAVGEM and icon both not too bad at 6z. UKMO has a route to cold at 144.
You never know, maybe there is just enough time for another big twist?
I think because it is only live little over a year. Some stuck in their ways? It's just as fallible as any of "the big 3" but it's a really good model that needs more attention than it gets here.
ICON has been showing the same for the last 4 runs. If everyone wants to ignore it what can you do? This despite it's proven accuracy at good range...go figure.
Anyhow i'm disappointed but there will be more opportunities.
I don't doubt we will get another bite but the first attempt is not going to happen realistically now. It will take at least another phase in my opinion.
I'm optimistic that we will get an easterly in the next couple of weeks.
I'm just saying, it's going to be proved most accurate again and at decent range.
I'm happy about that, not about the outcome for cold.
2nd best model after the ECM for me.
Disappointed for everyone looking for a quick route to severe cold though.
The GFS op in cuckoo land does and a few ensemble members. The UKMO may or may not go our way. ICON is dreadful and it sets alarm bells off straight away for me.
6 am starts rolling.
We NEED a good ECM.
Control run illustrates how fragile things are.
Not good overall so far on the models. Subjective because it's in comparison to yesterday evening. Need a good ECM.
I agree completely.
I remember when ICON first came out and it literally went with both easterlies in Spring when every other model abandoned the easterly or never progged it...it was 100% consistent. That's the concern.
But it's in a minority of one right now so let's see what happens. We need good runs this morning.