The Eagle

Dangerously cold conditions potentially in to the northeast states of the United States

We don't have access to the jet profile on the UKMO. If it's taking a NW/SE track it's good from that point, if not...

0 hrs.

Doesn't get any better than that Looking forward to super charts in the coming weeks.

Snowy northwesterly on the control run Then going northerly or northeasterly

I'd have thought the reliability of GFS availability may become more problematic the longer the Trump shutdown goes on...

Well, we'll certainly look forward to that.

Greece doing well again it seems Don't read! Snow closes schools in Athens. -23c recorded in Greece https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2019/0108/1022016-greece-snow-cold/

*opens door* *looks around* No change Leaves *closes door*

Yup, gone backward this morning. UKMO not looking great really. Looks like the first attempt will fail but will there be a second that is the question.

But all that beautiful clear Atlantic air... I'm just sayin, it's on offer is all...

Wouldn't we all deep down rather return to an Atlantic dominated theme? It's more exciting. Don't all rush to thank this post at once.

The airmass is not that cold thanks to the bloated warm sector with the initial trough moving south. You'd be talking mostly wintry showers rather than snow at low levels.

Small steps.

Good start from ICON. Now GFS/UKMO

Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

ICON quite keen on an easterly at the moment.

Too easy to topple. Progress though...still a long way to go.

More like the UKMO and ECM alright but probably everything a bit further east than the aforementioned so far.

Output overnight is a little soul destroying at this stage. There is little sign of the type of northerly latitude blocking we are going to need and retrogression of our high pressure to the northwest is inhibited by the northern arm of the jet consistently. We are depending on some dramatic signal suddenly being picked up on the models in the next few days. I don't think many of us are expecting much to change in the outlook in the near term. Hopefully in the medium term we might get some joy from the recent SSW event but even then there is not guaranteed to be a reaction in our favor or any reaction at all for that matter. Still, fingers crossed.

Never mind cold...some of these charts are starting to scream potential water problems down the road if we don't start getting these weather systems through. After a long hot summer this is not good.