sunnijim

A wild day here in Cornwall. Seen some fallen trees and power lines down on roads North and South of Padstow as Gusts on coastal headlands lifting you off your feet.

Holidaying near Padstow at the moment. Can confirm some severe gusts associated with passing convective activity. Blue sky's at times and beautiful cloudscape. Looking like afternoon for the strongest gusts according to the met office around 70mph.

Winds/ gusts have been adjusted toward several hours of 65mph to 70mph gusts around Cornish coasts this morning and afternoon, surely with many still on Easter holidays and holidaying in that part of the world you would expect a named system today? Can't help thinking if the SE were to be expected to have this we would be using a named storm today.

Mustn't grumble so far here on the Sussex coast, heavy snow from 5am to 7am with an accumulation that allowed my son to throw his first snowball! It was all washed away by 10am so I had some Daddy explaining to do as tears had to be dried ( I really need to grow up) Quite a rare thing for snow to stick in March here and wasn't expecting it really given the set up on offer. Now at 4c with bursts of rain.

@nick sussex see my earlier post,we did OK with a covering here West of you in Saltdean. Have some elevation but we are South coast.

A lesson in not believing the net weather radar precipitation type. Showing rain and sleet. The reality is snow, not just falling but settling too right on the South Coast. 20230308_061527.mp4

Snowing since 430am and starting to stick nicely in the last half hour. Saltdean on the SOUTH COAST.

It does make me wonder if the second ( although some say it was part of the original) SSW is having effect now on the modeling toward the end of the week. We hear alot about warmings taking 2 weeks or more to show their hand, if it was all part of the original warming could it negate that time frame? especially if the pattern is already in place from the first reversal. Just giving it that extra kick when we needed it most.

A brief opinion ( as flu and a temp of 39c, tapping the screen hurts my finger!) on what seems to be very late corrections South of Low Pressure systems and cold air now and in the future. Surprise surprise, the high to the northwest is proving stronger after all and putting more pressure on the Lows

Snowing up on the South Downs in Saltdean. Transition from rain to snow in the last 30 mins.

It has been a pattern this winter, the most 'unremarkable" on the face of it, set ups producing hard frosts and a decent fall of snow in December too ( all the while in the run up it was, 'it won't snow on the coast in this set up" but it did, and stuck. Doesn't surprise me at all to see snow today. Other years have seen 'perfect set ups' produce rain and sleet.

Surely members are just commenting on the various model runs as they seem them? I don't think anyone has produced a forecast based on what they see 5 to 14 days out and are firm on it actually happening whatever their preference. If a model in isolation or a set of models produce a run or a set of runs that produce snowy Nirvana then comments on it being 'historic' or 'Boom' are justified imo, nobody here is stupid enough to think it a certainty. Sure, we all have biases on what we prefer and look for at any time of year, you can study the runs today and quite realistically see a rapid return to the mild southwesterlies with little snow next week or form an opnion of a short lived milder interlude next weekend before it turns colder again after several snow opportunities next week. A Model Output discussion not a weather forecast.

Rumours that this Mob now have jobs in the heart of government remain unproven Politics aside, back to the models. I tend to use the fax charts as any given event dawns to look for any little features that might hold out some hope locally for snow This for Wednesday shows a rather unremarkable set up imo considering we are at the 'height' of our Arctic blast. The cold front that introduces our return to Winter struggling to clear the country with attendant mild and wetter weather lurking just to the SW. Still time for improvements but am starting to feel its an umpteenth lesson in not investing so much expectation in output a week away from 'landing'.

Jee Whizz, the models are in a state of I wonder how many who danced to this in the 90s on a Saturday night now relate it to a Saturday evening model run hitting the refresh button at 168hrs rather than finding a way to refresh your thirsty, dehydrated body. Where did it all go right....

The last 12 months have been slack meteorologicaly, so it should come as no surprise that anything dynamic has been watered down.

My continuing hunch based on the above is the much discussed correction South of incoming LP systems. Seen it time and time again along with the over enthusiasm to remove the cold block. Sets us up perhaps for a brief milder flirtation ( if at all) in the SW before a renewed cold push from the North or Northeast?13th onward.

There needs to be an archive for posts on here that deserve preserving! This being at the top of the pile imo. Another one being the Ian Brown WTF ( although some context needed on that)

@Cambrian Brilliant post!

I arrived here today after looking at the charts first rather than vise versa as I normally do. Anyone who ever bothers to read my ramblings here will know I normally try to find the positives in terms of the hunt for cold and snow and I was genuinely surprised to find the upbeat mood here based on what I had seen from the models, so well done all. This written with a big disclaimer as the huge ensemble spread and volatility caused by repeated SSW can improve the situation as to how i have seen it. The GFS looks like an utter shambles for anything other than a fleeting incursion of cold proper and snow for areas South of London.Wednesday being the day of limited potential. After this it is a rain festival with tempratures of 11c forecast by Saturday. The ECM holds out a little more hope but the boundary between the floodgates of mild and cold is paper thin. Other models throw up similar offerings blended between ECM and GFS. Midlands North clearly stay in the game for longer. The problem as I see it seems to be the Atlantic Jet stream not being pushed far enough South into Europe after our initial cold plunge from the North on Tuesday, meaning that mild is never far away and we have little 'wriggle room" in keeping the mild from flooding back in over large parts of England if incoming Lows behave as advertised. The vast majority of UK cold spells leave some hugely frustrated and others over the moon. December 22 being frustrating for most but in SE London a snowfall that stuck for days and on a scale of anything seen in the last decade with major disruption caused. It seems certain that is the direction of travel on this upcoming spell too. Still time for alot to change but perhaps only on who is in the snow game and who isn't. next week. Exciting times model watching for sure with potential of a reload the week beginning 13th March looking at some of the models, which does tie in with a M O further outlook released last week which suggested the week of 13th seemed more primed for snowy antics than the week coming. It is March, and to be offered this after such a disappointing winter has to be some sort of bonus.

I Said the other day,all looking a little Dec 22 and ECM is starting to sing from that hymn sheet. A cold push countrywide,but nothing strong in terms of convective potential.The High to the NW weakening all the while. Some pockets of snow showers ( nothing widespread) and a Thursday system being toned down to a shallow affair. The system that gave the snow in December to the SE was of a similar ilk although this developed further East.( a rather innocuous low running along the South coast) Still time for Thursdays to take a different route and curve North too!

You are reading that wrong. The forecast above( 10 day trend) posted from the Met 0ffice explains those plots and 'Northerlys more likely well into the following week'was there interpretation countrywide.

You would certainly rather have the ECM and mogreeps on your side. If we were sat here with the GfS and UKMO advertising the best options for cold and ECM and Mogreeps calling for a quick breakdown you would start to worry. UKMO past 144hrs is notoriously flakey and the GFS is just being GFS and trying different paths forward. No doubt a middle ground will be the way here, unfortunately for those in the South it maybe a blink and you will miss it snap, with some real fun and games further North as the cold hangs on. I just don't see the cold being swept aside rapidly countrywide. We had that option in December from models and the cold hung on for two weeks, together with numerous other examples down the years of cold blocks being removed too quickly.

I don't say this lightly ( and we have been here before with charts on the perifery of and within FI) that haven't verified anything like shown) but... This would be a March spell for the history books talked of in the same breath as 47 and 63, with the key to the historic nature it being March of course. If we can get a couple of weeks out of the situation as shown.

Hunch that a Dec 22 redux is the way it all might pan out. Charts look all too 'busy' to me given the way things have played out over the last 12 months which is understandable at this range of course. Dynamic Low Pressure systems in FI always watered down and we end up with situations that ' amble' about for weeks. Yes the SSW warming might get some 'guts' into our benign climate but after the initial Northerly ( if it happens) I would expect the type of scenario we had in early December. Cold in.snow chances for some with shallow troughs.a slow filtering out of the cold from the West as the GH weakens.

All the while the ingredients for a yummy chocolate cake are still on the table, I will refuse to be taken in by the decenting voices that tell me that the only ingredients on offer this morning are that which could produce a crusty old white loaf of bread. Seems that for many this Winter has been one hard slog in the search for snow ( it has) and is tainting views during a volatile period of model watching. I think we could all do with a straightforward evolution rather than high drama. High drama it is and will continue to be in the coming days, not the faint hearted or those with *S.M.F. *Seasonal model fatigue. The positives have to be a stunning GEM this morning and great UKMO.( both models the met office take seriously) There are plenty of negatives too of course, some poor ensembles and the GFS going through a wretched set of runs ( it will be everyone's favourite model again at some point again in the next 48hrs, just wait and see) We could still very easily find ourselves in a position thus time next week where the only concern will be snow melt the following week and how ' if it had only been January with these synoptics' being the cry of the glass half empty brigade.