Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

sunnijim

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,620

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by sunnijim

  1. sunnijim
    67mph the tops here so far 100mph in Jersey is been very impressive. Certainly dodged a bullet by about 100 miles the South of England. Standard Autumn Gale really here Impressive pressure,lowest since 1987 here.
  2. sunnijim
    53mph gust just recorded on the ano. Higher than predictions for here at this stage
  3. sunnijim
    Any strange going on with the family pets? Our cat is behaving completely batsh*t! Think she is modeling the low further North...
  4. sunnijim
    I assume uk only to include channel isles? French coast will get 117mph ( Normandy) Channel Isles 96mph ( St hellier) England 84mph ( Langdon bay)
  5. sunnijim
    Yes,we have all had the email down here. Certainly a first!
  6. sunnijim
    If this is truly the case,then a very unpalatable scenario is now possible as the Arpege was further North than nearly every model on the 12z suite.
  7. sunnijim
    Very good point, well made. It beggars belief really that a major incident has been declared already in Hampshire. I can only assume that the Met Office have briefed on a scenario that is not really making it into forecasts. That is the track uncertainty at the 11th hour? What could play out if the Low ends up further North than every model expects. Thus can be the only reason major incidents are being declared and utility providers are telling me via email to boil kettles and find candles!
  8. sunnijim
    Hi,who is forecasting this.? The channel islands Sure. ***The Low is tracking too far South for that sort of wind field to effect the South. ***proviso here that a shunt North could see 80mph gusts effecting the SE coast. All modeling this evening seems to suggest those 80mph + winds keeping just off shore. Perhaps one model was hinting at the 80mph winds effecting coasts on its 12z run.
  9. sunnijim
    Hi lottie. Hard to know really how it will all pan out? We are in the high risk areas,but with models all over the show with the exact track,the three options on the table seem equally as likely. 1, a run of the mill Gale. 2. Gusts to 60mph to 70mph ( a yearly event here) 3 or something that is the windiest for a couple of decades. ( the 87 option is not on the table imo.)
  10. sunnijim
    Local Water companies and power supllier have sent individual emails telling is to boil a kettle and put it in a flask Candles and torches should be located. A first, never had these emails before
  11. sunnijim
    I think some of the most devastating potential in some model runs a few days ago has been scaled back for all ( including France and Channel Isles) can't really see 90mph to 100mph as trypical gusts anywhere in any model in the last 24hrs. So certainly bullet dodged for all in that respect,however 80mph can still be pretty bothersome as can 60mph + given tree roots are saturated and inland parts don't get that many 60mph wind storms.
  12. sunnijim
    True,but around the SE coast we have another day on Thursdsy of excess of 6.2m tide at 1300. Coupled with the low pressure we would be looking at a 7m tide with an 80mph wind behind it!
  13. sunnijim
    That might not tell the full story,seems like a track very similar to 1987 if that came off,France,Channel Isles,IOW eastward in the mix.
  14. sunnijim
    Yes,worth keeping in mind that after days of incessant rain across the South and trees in full leaf still,topling at a lower gust ratio is quite likely.
  15. sunnijim
    Parts of the UK *may* have, big conovations such as London,could get lively Thursday afternoon and may go amber if the exit point is North of the Wash Still some large cities involved in Amber, Brighton,Southampton all in rush hour,so to say the UK has dodged a bullet when gusts in excess of 85mph are being predicted is not quite the case.
  16. sunnijim
    Can you think of some examples? To be fair the met office fax charts have been solid on the postiotioning for three days now,model variance of trending South or North hasn't swayed the pros yet.
  17. sunnijim
    Most models agree on an exit via the Wash,some disagreement now on approach,North/South. Think it clear that some parts of England are going to get somthing noteworthy, be it the West of Cornwall or the Kent coast/ Isle of wight. Don't see a huge Northern shift at this stage. The exit point is interesting,further Nortb than the wash,means greater areas of the SE are in trouble.
  18. sunnijim
    Looks like Met Office have disregarded the ECM output,the updated fax is almost a carbon copy of the GFS. Would imagine a blend of other models and the in house Deecider show that solution of a more Northern run compared to ECM.
  19. sunnijim
    Yes,you are right. Note to self,don't post at 5am having watched a thunderstorm since 4am!
  20. sunnijim
    Updated fax clearly shows that Exeter now have the Low 100 miles or so further Nirth than ideas of 24hrs earlier. Marginaly deeper at the same time too ( filling slowly) or steady pressure as it exits. LATEST below. 24hrs ago thoughts
  21. sunnijim
    Thunderstorm rumbling off the isle of wight.plenty of sheet lightning. Nice fork and the sort of booms that bounce between the sea and high ground that are improved with a lack of man made infastructure.
  22. sunnijim
    Yes,,but a broad brush of all models would suggest that might be a little ott? The met office update seems to suggest they are still imagining things further South than any of the guidance since today's 06z,There video forecast thus afternoon seems more akin to what was showing yesterday bar tonight's ECM. Makes me think the Deecider and mogreeps models might not buy into the intensity or Northward track..
  23. sunnijim
    ECM is toying with an idea GFS had 24hrs ago,until the 12z it had been consistent with the track 100 miles or so North of this. Rogue run imo, with the vast majority of models seeing things further North.
  24. sunnijim
    Tonight's 12z will be key in where we will end up at imo in terms of the path. The storm is forming now so we should see this fed into data runs going forward which "should' help nail the track a little more. The middle ground is usually the form horse. So GFS has been too far South,UKMO too far North, ECM about right. If we get a sudden shift from models in any direction overnight that will be either time to panic or breathe easier. Could be that current guidance is about right,Channel Isles Northern France worst hit. Although the 06z would put Southern coasts in the mix too.
  25. sunnijim
    GFS bringing the SE of England into play again with some of the highest winds on its latest output. Other models much the same in terms of Southern England impacts. The initial approach of the storm seems to be agreed upon between models,what seems to be happening,which has already been touched upon,is more of NW bend as it exits to the NE into the North Sea This pulls some extreme winds into the SE Thursday afternoon. A track not dissimilar to October 1987. Although it has to be said,nothing like as severe even on the most extreme ensembles. Still plenty to be resolved.
×
×
  • Create New...