sunnijim

Occasional flakes, no more. If it was Christmas day it would count as a white Christmas. Even the radar which shows light snow over me is overdoing it

This boat is sailing through snow

Who suggested a boat? My snow flurry has stopped. Not going to win any photo awards, but if this is as close as the snow gets ( see the cloud bank just off shore) It will be one for the how did we get soo unlucky file that includes numerous decaying channel thunderstorms.

SNOW BRINGS CHAOS TO SALTDEAN The cat has shot out, and back in again with white flakes on a black coat, got under my feet spilling tea on the laptop. MY four year old thinks he can build a snowman later, and is not interested in the Octonaughts for a change. My wife is without her second cup of tea... Yes, hats off to any model that suggested a South coast snow tickler. We are being tickled right now

I don't think I have ever seen an area of precipitation hang around for so long and so close to the coast without making landfall. Really is quite unfortunate

I know the apps are useless, but theire has to be some human input? The point being we have only seen this threat introduced this evening. Cloud has been the forecast for Wednesdsy for days now. Not expecting snow at 9am if the app says so I do think it might provide some hint only...

Might even get a warning Just to add, some Northward adjustment could benefit all. Here's how, it might start a sleety mix on the coast and snow further inland, as the better dewpoints dig in later and the precipitation clears from the North, it should turn to snow on the coast as it clears.

Saying light snow as the headline for Brighton, but pix show cloud only. Check Saltdean, we have snow symbols too!

Yes, it has always been possible, a scenario that has a 50 mile margin for error either way could give us coastal communities a snow day. Expectations need managing though!, not beyond the realms of possibly that it is just a wintry mix, more likely if it lands to be very light snow on and off. The unlikely is heavier snow at times that sticks. M..0 now have a maximum of 1c tomorrow here, which means it will drop from values tonight. They are obviously seeing the colder air push in against the precipitation tomorrow which could get interesting.

Met office app for my area now forecasting light snow all day tomorrow. First time it has shown this on the 1900 update. Evening models definitely upgrading the risk, the ones met office pay attention to anyway.

My bad, I only checked lunchtime on Sunday ukmo wise, there seems to be a timing difference GfS early afternoon UKMO toward evening 21st.

It did, but the 12z has dropped it and ecm is still not interested. Latest m.o thoughts for the weekend show a standard blustery day on Sunday. If I was a betting man I would suggest GFS has gone off on one here and the weekend will pass without incident.

I think we started like this in October before the Storm corrected South on future runs and effected Channel Isles and Northern France. Depends on any belt of high pressure over the continent as to Sothward shifts. GEM and ECM not interested so still an outlier solution anyway.

Reasons to be slightly optimistic this morning. Granted it is the equivalent of expecting rib eye steak and being served the possibility of a spam fritter ( apologies to veggies ) Latest Exeter thoughts show the front 50 miles further North than the fax yesterday and the front dropping down the UK exiting via the Wash rather than the South coast, this may help the Low over France track toward us at the same time, and a Northward nudge on the latest GFS. It has to be said a major surprise now would be getting precipitation to London( although not beyond the relms in these set ups) and more likely some light snow ( 40% chance) for coastal parts) the mild sector needs holding back, so hoping for more would lead to disaster anyway with cold rain.

Thanks for this, glad someone with some knowledge was able to come up with a conclusion to a question that might seem daft on the face of itWe assume that the strat warming can lead to Blocking, but if the block is already in place before the lag effects hit, can it set up a block in the wrong place and wipe out the 'good' we have now.?

The ooz gfs was actually an upgrade of sorts for snow compared to the two previous runs. All semantics now I guess. I was wondering if the SSW might be responsible for the rapid change to mild and possible Bartlett..... Any research done on this? if a Northern block is in place when the effects of a SSW trickle down, what can happen to the block and can it lead to an unpalatable outcome as we see lined up next week? I seem to have read that our current block was not the result of the mild SSW..

That is the fearback then I think they used seaweed. Further hope in the recent past. Models never got the grip of a system that crossed southern England and produced near on 25mm of rain. It was widely discussed here, November or December I think? It was one of the biggest model chicken ups in recent times, didnt warrent a warning so soon forgotten but the point is not one model developed the rainfall. Need some help on the date here but it was this winter.

As a child I rember an 80s cold spell, there was snow on the ground. Roads had been cleared. Unforecast snowfall headed up from France and we got stuck in Tesco. It was either Mr Giles or Mr Fish that got it in the neck from my Dad It is these sorts of memories that give you hope in this situation. It was certainly an event that was supposed to have stayed on the other side of the Channel

The latest family fax for mid day Wednesday suggests a slight southward correction on previous Exeter thoughts for mid day Wednesday with the fronts of interest hanging back over Northern France. The latest M.O video forecasts still talks of the slight chance of Southern snow on Wednesday. The hope is in the unexpected here and is often the case in these set ups. Some interaction between the front moving South over the UK and the System moving North out of France throwing up a surprise? Precipitation develping way ahead of the frontal boundary to our South and edging in?

There will be further corrections North or South on this. Wednesday still has potential right up until the event whatever the models are showing. A very hard one to nail. Surprise snow events always crop up in an Arctic outbreak. Despite some of the absolute bilge being spouted here, we are about to commence for the UK, a notable cold spell. A spell that was well signposted by a few members in here some way back and modeled pretty well by the much maligned GFS.

Yes, the 2013 event actually paid out well along the coast in Hastings with snow on the beach ( fine margins on different parts of the coast) December last year saw Snow here in Saltdean from that feature that ran along the SE coast from the SW and curved NW toward London. Rare to achieve snow on the coast from a Southern approach but not impossible. The 06z is an improvement on the 12z in that imby respect.

Met office extended outlook in a nutshell. Keep the faith, the idea will be dropped and reinstated in the coming days.Remember GFs was first to spot what we have this coming week.

Hii EML, you were once Brighton? Hence the need as illustrated so well above for the really fine margins on this system to work out if it is a snowfall on the South Coast. Yesterday's GFs 06z was perfect in that respect, we held on to good dewpoints .The amounts of snow were reduced as the system held a little further South, Northward corrections are allowing milder air to mix in, all be it with heavier snow that doesn't stick in the far South.

Looking like a correction South from the 00z? A South coast snow tickler .