sunnijim

You did well on Monday, saw the pix of worthing, under a streamer.Had nothing that stuck here East of you in Brighton. I don't think you should be concerned about the rest of Winter based on next weekends cold removal. I here what you say about the cold removal supposedly being hard to shift, that certainly has been the case from my recollection when you have had a proper battle between strong blocks to our North East and the return of unsettled Atlantic conditions. Models often underestimate the strength of the block and the dense cold in place, so you have a two fold situation in our favour for mainataing a cold spell in the face of over progressive removal. I can recall progged breakdowns not only being delayed for days but changed altogether in the past. Your final point on wanting further Northward adjustments to Wednesdays system, I assume you will reside in Worthing and are not massively altruistic ? Much further North than the GFS 00z suggests and it will be a South Coast rain fest.

There is really no strength to the block unfortunately. Imo we are doing well with what is on offer to get a scenario that is on offer this week given the limitations of this set up. The fact ice days are likely for some, a snow chase is on for some and it will feel like winter proper is reason to be cheeful. Somthing more 'classic' in terms of blocking looks the form horse to show its hand toward months end, there has always been the threat of milder spells this winter in the long rangers Setting the bar at 62/63 etc each winter is never helpful. Cold spell in December, an ongoing two week spell in January and perhaps the best to come in a couple of weeks? Certainly a better winter than many in my lifetime already. The country wide snowfall where all are happy is a rare beast indeed.

March 2012 comes to mind when a channel runner paid out. The channel Isles were hammered and the snow petered out as you got inland ( Tunbrudge Wells had very little) but Hastings ground to a halt. It will be a middle ground again I think, GFS probably too far Nirth and others too far South. They will meet in the middle. Hiring a boat and enjoying a mid channel snow party anyone?

Haa e decent fall here in December 22. I get your point though, not seen an awful lot. Worthing did well on Monday, very snowy landscape. All models seem to be correcting slightly North again in the last 24hrs. Too much correction North and the coast will be rain., we really need to have a selfish view on the South coast on this one What some models show now will suit us, take it and run.

From my experience of past events with Lows modelled too far North at 10 days out, the correction South is too much in the eight to seven day time frame , then you get small corrections North as you close in on the event. It is often then the case that the corrections North prove a little too far as the system moves in by about 30 miles or so. I am a geek, I have years worth of notes on this stuff

I keep an eye on xcweather and have noted the will it or won't it nudge from that system on the SE coast. 06z says yes 00z said no. Ironically for the snow starved,Imby it is probably a better scenario than the push North modelled earlier for the midweek low, certain to have been rain here. Keep it South, we stay cold and may see a dusting or so... XCWeather Forecast WWW.XCWEATHER.CO.UK

The ECM has hardly covered itself in glory signposting the upcoming 5 day cold spell, it had to be dragged kicking and screaming to join a scenario that the GFS and other models progged for the 15th way out in FI. So any rationale for getting negative based on chopping and changing ECM clusters is futile. Time would be better served enjoying the potential next week has to offer, I'm going to enjoy those sunny days with hard frosts and the near certain snow surprise that hasn't been modeled properly yet, it might not be MBY but some folk will be celebrating come next weekend, it happens in every cold spell. Who knows, after a more unsettled spell come the weekend the 'next reality' could be signposted by a couple of random GFS ensemble members calling for a BEAST FROM THE EAST at the end of January Keep sniffing out the clues, they might be hidden in the 12z later. July 22 proved that any crazy outlier is possible.

To put this into simplistic terms if I may. This whole scenario from the modeling of it days past to what we see playing out in the reliable now never looked sustainable to me in terms of what most of us crave. Let me be clearer on this. I have never seen displaced areas of high pressure ( that start in the wrong place) such as centered over the UK on this occasion and drifting to our NW pay dividends in terms of longevity. I recall a displaced Euro high once move up toward Scandinavia and allow a bitter NE flow to develop for three days with plenty of snow for the SE in the early part of this Century ( 05 or 06 ?) Clearly this scenario can deliver on a temporary basis. The longevity looking back always seems to come from a scenario where the blocking high forms in the RIGHT PLACE. So heights building to our NE or NW then extending their influence from the point of conception.( never moving too far) This holds the key to longevity

This mornings fax charts show the 528 dam line clearing South at mid day Monday, then being pushed North again on Tuesdsy by High pressure on the near continent. Not sure that was in the script? A clean clearance and cold air sweeping into France by Monday evening and staying piut until at least Friday, was the expectancy....chart looks a bit messy on Tuesday with more if a West Northwesterly kink in the isobars. Hope the Wednesday fax sees that dam line clear South again.

Regarding next week. Here on the SE coast we are on the cusp of Winter Nirvana or Winter crud depending on what model and what run you choose to look at. We have seen the same scenarios for days on end now, model uncertainty as to where the boundary of cold and mild will be and of course the rain/ snow line. Imby is not an unusual emotion where snow is concerned particularly as it seems as rare as hens teeth these days to get a decent fall here. Which leads me to the MAD thread. Just one example where I have had to bite my reply finger. "what is the problem here, you won't get much better than this, it is all snow for all North of the M4" Think it was a response to someone who asked for the initial cold plunge to extend far into France. I'm done with the extreme South getting misty mild drizzle and rain for a week or more while those further up country get the Winter Nirvana. It has happened many times in my lifetime with the synoptics on offer. So yes imby here, if we can't get a decent track on these systems let's stay in the dry cold and sunny conditions

Bit of a bust locally in the end, seen proper snow falling which was a plus and some winters have past without even that! Some cars driving past with a whole load of snow on roofs...

Heavy snow now on the South Coast. Bog goose flakes, 1c and sticking with elevation

The first flakes of sleet landing on my fluffy blue Christmas dressing gown. Had to check I wasn't in need of head and shoulders as it is falling out of semi blue sky

April 2007 or 2008 if memory serves? Led to snowmagedon on the SEcoast.

Expecting the ECM to start going totally ott very soon with its output as it has been found wanting with the initial cold push tomorrow. Expect channel snow producers, Strong Greenland higjh, polar Lows, charts not seen since 1963 as other models back off a little in the next day or two

Seems to be playing catch up with the opening gambit( smelling the coffee in pretty much a nowcast scenario) in this cold spell and now the second course next weekend. The relectence to get on board might be understandable given that we can never forget THAT ECM from years past

I had the same insinuation leveled at me by a non southeaster in December last year when forecasted rain on the coast not only readily turned to snow but settled. 'Radar is showing rain, how can you have snow when we have rain inland etc etc. Up on the Downs a mile from the seafront sure throws people!

Having moved to Saltdean in 2016, I'm yet to fully understand the mechanics of any streamer activity that would benefit this area. I'm well versed on my old haunt in Hastings, many years of enjoyment if things hit correctly( the cut off was generally Eastbourne on a direct Northeaster) The same goes for Lewisham, think the Thames streamer requires East/ Northeast? Feel a bit in no man's land here fir the potential event tomorrow. I think streamers would generally fizzle this far west on the South Coast. If I had to come down on my best option near Brighton,it might need more East mixed into the Northeast to nuliffie the land track a little.

Who is announcing this to loved ones? I refuse to jump yet.... I have a sledge in a box in the garage, not used since its purchase two years ago on the basis of charts that held so much potential. I promised myself I would bury these feelings and let nature take its course. Darn the internet

Only allowed one word per letter I knew the reverse scicology would work, if I'd boomed for B before the 12zs I would of jinxed it. Let's hope B for bin is not needed for the ECM again!

I have not contributed to this thread either this winter and certainly not said anything to the wife and 4 yr old...yet! Burnt too many times in the past, although they must hear it from me first before mainstream media Certainly watching and reading with interest on upcoming developments. Fantastic contributions from everyone. I will continue to play MAD alphabet bingo in the meantime. Starting with the 12zs. Bingo if the below are mentioned in desperation or excitment! Aperge Bin collapse Dam-line Encouraging Frost Greenland high-risk Icon Jma Knee-jerk Longevity Mogreeps Nuts Obviously Pub-run Questionable Realistically Scatter Trumps Unlikely Verification Wishful X rated Yikes z- list

Major flooding on the roads here as convective heavy rainfall is causing chaos, all trains cancelled. Wind now gusting wildly into the 40mph + zone.

Noted that, again it has gone from somthing of a shallow wave in earlier fax output to more recently a clear centre and mild deepening...

The storm has left some stunning sky scapes in its wake. Thunderous channel brewing ground

With such a tight pressure gradient around such a small low, the extreme wind corridor was limited to a 100 mile swathe just to the South of Henk. 81mph Exeter, 69mph Heathrow., so the narrow amber wind corridor drawn this morning by the Met office was well advised. South coast gusts maxing around 70mph is noteworthy but not extreme in any winter and likely repeated again before Summer.