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sunnijim

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Everything posted by sunnijim

  1. sunnijim
    I think that is where we are at again this morning. GFS still not buying into the more extreme potential for the central belt and NW Scotland... Time will tell which model is calling that issue correctly. Good agreement on the bigger picture across the UK. Amber seems to be in the correct places. .Northern and Western England SE coast of England. Imo coastal warning areas are reasonably ready for this, no great issue with 70mph gusts as they are a reasonably regular winter occurrence. The inland areas under amber in Northern parts perhaps more impactful. A slight proviso to all of the above is the longevity of gusts pushing 70mph or a touch higher, 5hrs potentially is noteworthy and a much rarer occurrence even on coasts. I would be surprised at any modifications to warnings going by overnight model output and the updated met office fax.
  2. sunnijim
    Yes; certainly a closer example. With Isha the heights over the continent seem to be in the exact right place to squeeze the isobars a considerable distance from the core. Too much forcing from the South would have meant a chiefly Northern event here as is shown on the examples of storms past you have shown.
  3. sunnijim
    The examples you give here show a much lesser windfield over England, hardly a Gale.. Although positionly further South, the 1990 burns day storm looked similar with impacts countrywide.
  4. sunnijim
    Looking at the warnings the Met Office have issued ( potential for 80mph on Western coasts and SE coasts of England) to call this storm mostly impactful for Scotland is not how Exeter are seeing it right now. The 85mph possibility for parts of Scotland is only 5mph higher than England. This of course could change....
  5. sunnijim
    OK, hence the question mark. Infact still a question hanging over it happening on this occasion looking at the mixed bag so far on the 12z
  6. sunnijim
    There's always alot of old bunkem spoken when it comes to these storms. Worst in however many years sort of nonsense. The talk of 70mph inland Southern England gusts ( if by inland we mean a good 30 miles from a coast,I can't see it) The notable thing about this storm is the strong wind field covering just about the whole country. Quite rare to see, gust wise nothing to suggest we are in trouble. Values most would expect during the winter at some point ( perhaps excepting that central belt of Scotland ) if the 85mph gusts come to fruition it might be a once in three year?
  7. sunnijim
    I think the real question is will we get a red. A narrow swathe when the high res models show consistency across central Scotland perhaps? I'm mind boggled by the rationale at times for warnings but if there is a time of day criteria then red may not be deemed necessary for postman and milkmen
  8. sunnijim
    Judging by the Met office warning update, they don't buy into some of the more ott model solutions .( 90mph to 100mph) 80mph to 85mph for the western isles not so unusual, but perhaps more so if, as suggested, these gusts effect central parts of Scotland.
  9. sunnijim
    I took a few locations, Newquay, Blackpool, Newcastle and Inverness. They either equaled or were below progged highest gusts for Hastings. GFS/ met office. Semantics now really, the real interest in terms of severity is the ECM solution which shows some really noteworthy impacts around a tighter core toward NW Scotland at 90mph +. Impacts over England inland due largely to the prolonged nature of gusts in excess of 60mph. Coastal Southern Britain as it stands see gusts toward 70mph, not that noteworthy, these seen three or four times in a Zonal Winter ( again the prolonged nature of these gusts is more unusual) Hitting 80mph as suggested on the SE coast amber, a once every two or three years snenario.
  10. sunnijim
    One or two models show high impacts for Scotland. A blend of GFS wind predictions and Met Office wind predictions this morning show Scotland spared the worst of the wind. Highest gusts from both of these sources reserved for the SE coast of England
  11. sunnijim
    To try and lift the mood a little and taking the Russian High appearing as the crumb of comfort. Whilst acutely aware that no historical matching is ever going to be an accurate forecasting tool, I did look over some of my own records and noted a clear trend for heights to build temporarily to our South after a spell of turbulent weather and a bias ( default) position in the modeling to continue the pattern for weeks.( on most occasions a new strong signal is picked up at the start of the new weather type) so Wednesday or Thursday next week if this holds true.( This area of my own data since 2004) Not always what we are looking for from a cold perspective it needs noting, a return to Atlantic Lows was the form horse historically with a couple more colder episodes thrown in before Spring BUT on a couple of occasions I matched where we are now to the emergence of a dominant Russian High.( this area of data since 1983) Stormy, Euro Heights ( under a week), a weaker attempt at the return of zonal and then floodgates from the East ( took about two weeks after the last deep low) which would be Tuesday 23rd on this occasion and snow shovels for Tuesday February 6th ( this was written as a young boy aged 12 to 19) so simplistic talk of "deep Lows"," High over Europe"" High moves away" "light rain pushes in From SW", "High over Russia", "snow from East"to quote my old notes Looking back over Winters that have shown stormy spells and colder drier spells interspersed, I couldn't find a match ( since 1983) where we entered the remaining months of Winter ( late January and February) under a Euro high or a close equivalent as models / ensembles would have us believe today.
  12. sunnijim
    I'm not sure that a sting jet would show in this manner on model output? As #mapantz rightly said, likely an embedded trough
  13. sunnijim
    At the moment, yes, a new feature that could develop into a small secondary low on future runs. As it stands it will have the effect of squeezing the isobars further...
  14. sunnijim
    Looks like GFS is developing a sister Low to the South over Iteland..
  15. sunnijim
    I never knew that. I thought NW had their own model the ukv. Why I imagined that I will never know
  16. sunnijim
    Met office aren't seeing anything worthy of an amber for Scotland so far? Does this model have any backing elsewhere in terms of these significant gusts.? Looks like a configuration issue with the LP ( isobars tighter round the central core compared to other models) prompting these type of gusts on that model in an area under yellow warnings. Would warrent an upgrade from yellow to red.
  17. sunnijim
    People are probably a little care worn with these warnings, some don't match the hype. It is a good job the worst of it will be overnight for most as imo it has the potential to be the most damaging this winter if we discount the Jersey storm in October. Worse than warnings given? I think adjustments now will be minor, that said, the longevity of the high winds is worth noting too. 3 or four hours for most of us.
  18. sunnijim
    Certainly don't feel there is an overplaying on this occasion from the Met office. Quite unusual to have a System deepening as it crosses the UK. They always seem to have more about them than named storms that have done their deepening in the Atlantic and fill slowly crossing the UK. The look of the fax charts similar to the Burns day Storm in January 90. Although has to be said winds at this stage not likely to come close.
  19. sunnijim
    Updated to include Amber for the SE coast. From nothing straight to Amber. Named storm. Please update title mods. UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
  20. sunnijim
    A cursory glance at gfs wind predictions and Met Office predictions show that the highest gusts are reserved for the SE coast of England ( 60mph to 70mph) met office and (70mph to 80mph) gfs. The wind warning from the met office seems to be out of date given the runs in the last 48hrs ( example Glasgow) under a wind warning with gusts progged at 50mph and Dover no warning with gusts toward 70mph using the met offices own data.
  21. sunnijim
    Not trying to be contradictory but looks fairly standard fare from the M O warning. Affecting West and North ( not us yet) 60mph to 70mph gusts. UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
  22. sunnijim
    Have only checked gfs so far and Met Office app, neither super reliable!
  23. sunnijim
    Not seeing it in the models, where are you looking? 60mph gusts progged Sunday eve, no great shakes yet...
  24. sunnijim
    10 flakes counted since 8am. No joke, although I'm not staring at the sky counting all the time. Neighbours probably think I'm bats already having stood on the Downs with an anometer a few weeks back measuring gusts
  25. sunnijim
    Really is a dead zone for interesting weather in recent years. Named storms either hit Northern France or Northern England. Snow, run the radar. In a nutshell. Thunderstorms....need I say more. I know not all the above floats everyone's boar, but I love all extremes and it is no exaggeration to say the above generally miss us in the South for the last decade.
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