Id suggest the gfs18z isnt has strong with the initial heighths towards greendland and this in turn pushes the colder 850s eastwards. That said anything beyond 120 hrs is sublect to change across the mo imo
Yes your correct. The fluidity will continue. Any chance of sustained cold going into december "may" be scuppered when the projected change ie vortex strenghening kicks in. Great tho atm for fun and games
Tbh its not worth getting stressesd atm imo. The flipping of runs shows the uncertainty on the models and nhp. Let it do its dance and see if its a waltz or a goose step