frosty ground

For Compressions Icon Vs GFS (6z) GFS is digging deeper into Europe.

Looks like it has a lot of backing too

The ECM for the last two runs haven't been that good, The day 5 Chart is showing a temporarily South Westerlies and the Cold Zonality is still out at day 6.

Best ignore all other ouput for that..... the ECM is npt as cold but i think we should wait till we see its ensembles

By the time the GFS gets to Day 10 it has shown the UK under -5 north Westerly Winds for 4 days straight..... Also worth noting is the Block to the East only get pushed back, but its still hanging around.

The block is certainly playing hardball but as you say no model shows the block standing up to the Atlantic beyond day 5

Can you expand on that?

I have noticed that over the last few days what is creating this?

Posted Yesterday Posted today Gavin posted yesterday by mistake.... My update is the most uptodate. Easy way to spot it is by looking at the starting day....... 5 days ends saturday so todays update should start Sunday!

Has he???? Gavin starts on Saturday

That forecast looks like a duplicate of the operations we have been seeing. Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places. For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. First chart shows a front bring rain to the south more wintry up north, The second shows the wintry showers heading south again. Temperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times. Ensembles from the north West

Whats your point?

Comment on the models or just a moan?

Very heavy rain with snow on the Northern Edge..... This pattern lends its self to this this type of setup.

And some of these showers will be of snow.

Isn't that what fees the cold westerly over the UK for 3 or 4 days.

Very Progressive from the Met...... Block still Lurking just further East. With pressure at 935 should we be taking that chart seriously?

And this is how today's run ends

I think this run shows how stubborn the block is being, not really to the UKs advantage That's how this morning Run ended..... I think the 12Z is going the same way but probably delayed. (Again only the ICON)

no issue on this run, but this is the ICON so how much weight this is given is well up to those with more knowledge. for fun thou the 06 bettered the 0z and the 12z is bettering the 06z.... Upgrades all the way

Charts like this shows why there has been talk of an easterly....

The Block to the East is causing all kinds of problems, it isn't quite up to pushing back the Atlantics and neither is it surrendering. A Cold North West to South East progression is being put back all the time. We should be looking at some Cold Zonality later this week but this is now past the weekend. The 06z has the cold pool over central Eastern Europe rather than the south East (Greece) again there was no cold pool forecast over Europe (At least with a block in place and no top up from the North.) If as forcast the Jet quietens down for a few days with the Jet still anglened NW/SE and the Block to the east is still hanging around the chances of a major snowfall over some part of the UK must be high, especially as the Cold over Europe is still being modelled all over the place.

Why....?

No GFS either then..... or why not ban all model output past day 5. Or maybe just maybe people can use this thread to discuss model output without being sniped at by lesser contributors because afterall thats what this threaf is for right.

So if the Upper flow is of the atlantic with Sub zero 850's (say -2) but the surface feed is still of Europe, those conditions could be conducive to Snow. So if I am getting this right, as low 850 move in of the Atlantic you would get rain turning to snow from the west? This is of course without taking all the other parameters into consideration.