frosty ground

Or it’s been on the cards for a while well advertised by the ensembles as a probable outcome I should have added

But I don’t remember seeing anything like a 90% support at day 7. Again I’d love to see the charts that back that up.

A bit like this usual carvers apply

So a near certain northerly with 50% support could early be described as a 50% near certain chance of no northerly . or if we read the ensembles correctly we could deduce there was a chance of something and there still is.

Have we, I haven’t seen any real support for a prolonged cold spell, only 2-5 day attempt which still might happened, thou the ensembles show it being limited to around two days. can you share some of these charts that have show a full house?

Like I said delayed from the GFS 12z pretty obvious it was heading that way just to add that the the ensembles show a 48 cold snap around Christmas, this run fits that. Of course it’s 50/50 or coin flip if that happens.

Just have to disagree I’m afraid the centre of both the upper and surface pressure is the Azores, pressure being high over Iberia as part of the same cell doesn’t change that. Facts aren’t debatable I’m afraid. looks like a delay on the GFS not really icon

Very impressive considering it’s centred over the Azores.

Not sure we need to worry about rainfall train with a margin of error the size of the U.K. when the starting point is already to the south then? Yiu did bring it up BTW I was just analysing what you said. Winter is over based on the icon.

Not sure we need to worry about rain fall over the channel, pretty wet place to begin with. as the boundary is sinking south all the whip up until 180 hours I doubt all that in the mid Atlantic would make it to the U.K. anyway.

GFS 06z showing pretty much what it’s been showing for the last week or so a cold Xmas couple of days with the possibility of a little snow in favoured places. Changes with the 0z are not worth pointing out no major changes

Hasn’t it been like that since day the first of December, nothing has shown anything other than 2-5 day cold spell, and we can sadly say it’s probably going to be a 2 day cold spell

Worst run ever* * Comic book guy

Game was never off. Its the kind of run that could create large snowfalls across the boundary

ECM clearly showing a boundary across the UK moving north and south

you have a point I don’t know where all the cold air to the north is

Compared to the 0z it’s an improvement

ECM is massively different , then again the inter run variance is in line with all the ensembles

Has it?

That’s going to be some cold front sweeping through the U.K.

Like the earlier ICON the low will slide and if your on the north east side you could get significant snow

Well if it’s modified it isn’t what it was originally therefore not a Bartlett, but it’s not a modified one either.

im looking for something like this happening next week, it All depends on the shape of the high and developing low but if the stars align places to the north east of the runner could see disruptive snow

Not sure how you get to it’s dire, the solution is slower but also colder

The model thread is probably the worst I’ve seen it on here and even going back the my days on TWO. Bias I can live with but the shear amount of factually incorrect posts is laughable, I’m not talking forecasts I’m talking about posting a chart then saying it shows something it doesn’t. Usually followed up by I’m entitled to my opinion, you can have an opinion but you can’t have a version of fact. also if I see the words barty again for a chart that is t showing one I’ll probably explode. need to learn how to block people again. next two weeks looks like a wild ride and if your on the northern side of the jet you might cop a load of snow