frosty ground
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Everything posted by frosty ground
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ECM doesn’t have a push of energy from the south west, the low comes from the north west as the high pushes it out of Greenland. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So what’s the percentage of a Greenland high and no Greenland high aka sinker? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So there is 50/50 support for a Greenland high and a west based Greenland high with zero other options? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The high just pushes to low to the east as it strengthens. Can we get an under cut of the high? Will we get a perfect retrogression this time? Maybe Earlier if we get a better undercut -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
interesting to see if this low follows the jet and heads south or just drifts away east as the high builds -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Soggy bottom, highs tend to sink that way when they link up, Icon hinted at this so must be watched -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I feel a disturbance in the I told you so force this morning like the dreams of a thousand coldies suddenly vanished. not massively different this morning high not as far north but much needed dry weather still on the cards -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
small changes from the 12z run with a slight northwesterly movement of the high pressure. Allowing an easterly to affect areas further north. also of note is the mild air coming up to Central Europe -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The differences are minor could go anyway this -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well it’s not and it’s not by a country mile, run of your mill cold spell nothing special or serious on. Any chart yet. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s done it all gone by the 0z now -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
frosty ground replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
South of Liverpool and eastern side of England and Ireland look the places to be -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which is miles away from staying in the North Sea? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Scotland now separated by the North Sea now? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
High pressure over Iceland always leads to west based -be NAO -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
energy going through or under the block and real Greenland high. All in all a cracking set of comments writing of the run from day 4 onwards -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
the low looks like it’s gonna drop down the east coast of the UK should help drag in an easterly by day 10 -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not really -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Heights to the south with wedges to the north don’t look a fit to me. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It never is, but the chances of colder weather that produces snow increase if that region is already colder. of course it’s also true that it’s doesn’t need to be cold if the right pattern sets in, but it’s usually a longer setup required and therefore harder to come by. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The ensembles always had a risk of this thou so it can’t be a total surprise -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
frosty ground replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sure Jen