frosty ground

no major differences at this point locally, high a little stronger and the low that’s going to push around the high is further west making it look like the high is struggling but it really isn’t

last nights GFS with its wobbly wheel OP run which was still a good run This mornings GFS run with a few bolts coming lose It’s not negative to show these changes it’s a fact, the ECM op has also picked up on a bit more energy of Greenland hence the block not becoming a true GH. are these runs fact? Of course the outlook is still very good but it’s not a smooth ride but it rarely is. there is a big difference in showing something that has changed vs going on about invisible west based -ve NAO. And pointing out all the ways something could go wrong that helps no one. the GFS has picked up on something and the ECM op has also picked up on something, could be gone by 12z might make more of it but that’s what this thread is for.

We call it a glorified Atlantic ridge, energy is still crossing northern Greenland hence the low forming on the north east of the high and looks to move south a bit like the GFS 18z yesterday, the wobbly wheel has now struck the ECM op and the GFS has lost some bolts

I must have missed the winter is over post?

I’d bank this run, it will be gone soon enough thou. end with a screaming easterly and scandi high?

The first trend is to pull the high north westwards earlier, not yet brought the cold in that much quicker that of course can change

January snowstorm is worried about every run. Most people like my self are just commenting on what we are seeing. its an interesting run.

the low is sent south eastwards probably leading to snow on its leading and trailing edges. Heights over Greenland have gone but the Atlantic is still blocked with a north west to south east jet.

this is what the depth of cold and lowering heights over Greenland lead to, not sure how that low to the north west will act, could head south east or bring back the Atlantic one run but a slight wobble of the wheel. ensembles and 0z will offer more information

by day 11 the heights over Greenland are collapsing but as the Atlantic just one high pressure there’s no movement east therefore the U.K. is under a slack cold northerly

we can all ignore the lowing heights over Greenland but it won’t make them go away. but by ten the cold has arrived and the Atlantic is dead, no more, any snow will have to come from the east on this run at least

the above mention 2nd wave of high pressure over eastern Canada. not sure it will lead to a west based nao but it’s a big difference

The amount of cold air over Greenland has increased, I sense a wobble of the wheel is occurring the depth of cold over scandi and Europe is breath taking

the upper and surface high are both stronger in this run, a low is dropping down its eastern flank

Here it comes

the position of our high it’s shape will lead to the flood gates being open so much sooner. 06z below

This run has the high further north and west with low pressure dropping down the east side, the cold is going to get here a few days earlier than the 06z run.

Run the sequence and tell me which way the high is moving? What is happening over Greenland What is happening over Scandinavia? that sequence tells you the high is moving north west, heights are increasing over Greenland and cold air has flooded our north east. at no point can we say we don’t know where that high is going, it’s not going south east is it? Or east or south west? it is funny how we all see the charts.

Left with a small amounts of energy over Greenland which is melting away quickly 36 hours later the high would have moved north west enough to bring in artic conditions into the UK

So this one operational run has the U.K. high collapsing into Europe with only the artic high saving the day at day 10 it’s wet and windy with a hint of a colder tomorrow. is this a wobbly wheel? on to the 12z

The only thing I don’t want is more wind and rain, o look another low about to join the party

The GFS ensembles this morning did go slightly warmer during the change from U.K. high to Greenland high and there was more noise or warmer runs on the 850,s that’s didn’t get any cold in

I thought that but it’s quiet a drop and it’s localised

So at 132 the cold uppers over the north of England have pretty much mixed out but by 138 they intensify and I can’t see why nothing major just a curiosity

West based setup ….. seriously, absolutely zero hint of it in that chart