chionomaniac

Getting closer with the cold air. Manston in Kent. cant be long now

A foot of snow with drifting will see areas cut off. As soon as roads are cleared the snow will be blown right back over them.

The cold spell is getting prolonged, this will increase your chances for repeated Atlantic attacks to stall above you.

The Atlantic is going nowhere on this run. The mild air can’t even reach Cornwall by Midday Thursday

Thanks, 2-3am, I’m guessing

I will be staying up tonight to see the first snowflake. I love it when the rain changes to snow. First, you have icy blobby rain, then the very occasional white streak flash past. Following that, definite snowflakes in the rain, and these then become more significant until wet snow alternates with sleet. Finally, there is no rain and the snow loses that wet feeling and we start seeing it stick on cars and a few other surfaces. Then the event is well underway.

As it has been mentioned on here, I looked into the criteria last night for a red warning for snow. It doesn’t specifically mention danger to life. I suspect it is where conditions become extremely hazardous if you are out and about. But danger to life can occur for example if ambulances can’t reach their destination because of the conditions.

Funny enough I was just coming to report on this band. I have just seen a pick of very heavy snow in this band at 900ft with it turning from rain to sleet elsewhere. Promising.

Well, all I can say is that I am pleasantly surprised today that this has occurred in the models at a far speedier timeframe. Great output so far today.

For those interested in prolonging the cold spell, the splitting Atlantic trough and negative tilt are very welcome. The GFS ensembles in posts above, are all keen on a warm up from Atlantic amplification. They are keener than me, that is sure.

Lol, thanks. Not so much as an expert, but more an experimental thinker mixing logic with experience.

Thanks. But it has not happened yet, but it is still important to look at the clues the models give you, despite them showing another scenario. It is a bit like seeing them arriving at a y junction, and choosing the south option, when the north option is equally good. Spotting the y junction is not always obvious.

I think I saw a comment earlier, about commenting on the models and sticking to what they show in this thread. But the fun for me is viewing all the outputs and then working out where the information they provide can be used in a constructive way to predict a slightly different outcome that is equally feasible with the help they provide. Hence when you see a ( double) amplification scenario that the models pick up on, it is logical to adjust this to suggest a different scenario that is reasonable but not showing yet. Still a long way to go, but round two a strong likelihood imo

Hmmm. Just seen the 18Z GFS. Now we see what we suggested that could happen earlier regarding a possible Scandi Block. With the Atlantic delayed slightly, and a double wave of Atlantic amplification in the offing, then strong possibilities remain with round 2. A few more nudges and we are there. I dont know what the GEFS will say, but there is a reason that they are not to be trusted. I have seen so many flips over the years lol. Perhaps we should rename them as the lemmings ensembles. They are all quite happy to throw themselves over a cliff when it is obvious that this is a bad move!

Anyone else drumming their fingers. Now up to T+6 for me lol. Must be a great pub run coming up with a renewed Scandi high! We wish.

I drove past the gritting station today on the A2300 near burgess Hill. All the snowplough attachments were lined up and ready to be attached and ready to go. Well over 10 I saw!

I think most of us will just be grateful to see settling snow after a winter so far of marginal and melting events. To see some settling powder snow, no matter what the final total will just be great. Can’t wait. Even though it is a rain to snow event, once those temps dip to below freezing it will stick quickly and build too.

ECM following this cluster of GFS ensembles

Ecm vs gfs T+168

Lol. ECM continues and increases the cold out to Thursday. Brilliant!

When I lived in Brighton, the exact direction of the airflow and where streamers were directed was all important - so one of those situations that by Tuesday you could end up with 10cm if the streamer aligns well. If it doesn’t then Eastbourne could have the 10cm and Brighton less than 5. One thing I love about ice days though, is the icicles that can form from melting snow on roofs that refreezes. Saw some great ones in 2010 and 1991.

Yep. Big streamer potential there.

Lol. Yep you missed out there! Was very funny, especially with the bear tracks. @Nick L

And get stuck in snow drifts

I was replying tongue in cheek, Tim! I expect a warm up first, that wasn’t an issue, moreso that a set up for a scandi high is a possibility following this