chionomaniac

It’s late and I have had a hard day at work today and hence may not have understood you both. Sorry if that is the case. I am sure the catchment area is irrelevant. It’s more important where the river flows

See above

And, as in the case of the Dee it is then covered by the EA

Orange is flood alert in Wales and England. If the river passages from Wales to England then it is then covered by the EA in England

More bits and pieces with intermittent rain so far. But warnings are rising...

When we see NH charts like this, we certainly see the effects of the SSW downwelling. Yet again, so far, the wheel of fortune where cold is released further south has eluded us. But whilst this pattern of disruption continues, there is still a chance that the wheel keeps rolling, and we can be in the firing line. ( may need the MJO to assist)

I’ve seen a bit of chatter about a possible vortex split towards the end of the runs. But these lack the consistency and have not drawn in at all. To me, compared to the wave 1 event, which was consistent and did draw in, I think that there is no reliability in these forecasts and very unlikely to happen. We need to see a split run after run and being drawn in, so I have very little confidence that this will occur until these conditions are met.

England now upto 22 flood warnings and 161 flood alerts. Wales now has 37 flood alerts. Scotland still 5 flood alerts

Looks like the next spell of heavy rain about to hit South Yorkshire.

General, rather than model based - but rainfall projections important

With another excessive amount of rainfall forecast and many areas already flooded and expecting worse, I think it is worth keeping up with the areas most likely to see flooding and monitor river levels in these areas. Please post rainfall totals and forecast amounts in here so that we can keep an eye on the latest situation. Here are the links to the UK's EA flood watch areas. So far England has 11 flood watches and 115 flood alerts Scotland has 5 flood alerts Wales has 10 flood alerts And NI site is difficult to navigate! Flood warnings for England - GOV.UK FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps Flood Updates – SEPA Floodline FLOODLINE.SEPA.ORG.UK Flood warnings and alerts FLOOD-WARNING.NATURALRESOURCES.WALES Check the risk of flooding in your area | nidirect WWW.NIDIRECT.GOV.UK To check flooding risks in your area or anywhere in Northern Ireland, use the flood maps.

I haven’t had time to analyse the models up to day 6 and work Out what happens next. What I would have said that a period of unsettled weather would continue with both mild and cold outbreaks thrown into the mix with all three. With the ensembles messier than a plateful of spaghetti I think it may be a few days before a new coherent signal is shown.

I have a couple of thoughts about this run........ one of them suggests this is an anomaly and the low crosses the Atlantic. the other outside chance suggests reamplification of an Atlantic block closer to our west that may start showing up in ensembles and future runs. just another scenario to keep an interest

I have model watched over 20 years and it is not often I can’t read what exactly is going to happen next. That tells me something. Neither do the models and a divergence erupting.

I have an opinion on this run at T+ 162. Hmm. What is going to happen next? Normally easy to say.

18z has worse 850s over us but better WAA over the west Atlantic. Swings and roundabouts but closer to ukmo

Yep. Exactly. I would not write anything off at the moment still. It is hardly as if the strat vortex has cranked up yet giving us more reliability in the forecast. So, just because the models are offering one solution on the table, it is just one of many that could become reality.

It wasn’t against my better judgement. My concern was that if we achieved a displacement only SSW then we could be left in this type of scenario. But there was enough indication at the time to suggest a split would also occur and we wouldn’t. It didn’t and that’s c’est la vie. All throughout the SSW things have not been clear cut. And I suspect that will occur for a while. It is hardly like the strat is overwhelmingly dominating the trop. In fact, when we look at the T+240 ECM NH chart we still see one disrupted pattern, but not in our favour. edited to show chart

Lol snap!

Sad not to see any snow falling today and not having any this cold spell other than 10 minutes. Main concern for this thread next week will be flooding, so keep an eye on the Environmental Agency website

Lol, yes one minute and no the next. It’s a difficult game to predict.

We’ve seen it happen before, and with the current models we can’t rule it out, despite the uncertainty. I would say 60% in favour of the west based -NAO scenario or weak block allowing the Atlantic to progress underneath in the median term. The 40% would be the UKMO option of increasing the blocking - but this is far less likely. The risks of the SSW is that the previous non Nina pattern was dislodged by the variability of the trop blocking following downwell. If this kicked the trop pattern to be more in line with La Niña then that would be a real p*****. But time will tell and After an SSW I never rule anything out.

I wonder how many times that west based -NAOs have followed SSWs? And then moved further west allowing for the initial Atlantic undercut leaving the UK in the firing line, with the NAO slowly turning positive and a return of more zonal conditions. It has happened before in 2009. I wonder has it been a recurring theme over the years.

Lol. A few days ago from day 6, it wasn’t looking too bad, but not as good now. But I also know that things can change very quickly, so never write off anything.

Thanks Seb. It is bloomin’ difficult not looking at the models later on when they are easily available. I have managed it twice so far. Another 5 days to go