chionomaniac

I meant 19 and corrected myself immediately but obviously not in time for the sharpest. P11 was a bus I used to catch!

Lol. P19?

Fundamentally, a return to another easterly and round 2. These patterns do have a habit of repeating themselves. Remember the mini BFTE, that followed the BFTE a couple of years ago.

I think posting the odd one is ok, but bulk posting may not go down too well with @Paul as this is a paid for service

I don’t think it is as marginal on the south coast in an easterly. The South Downs may act as a buffer though, taking the last of the heavier precipitation away

When I see 2 areas of amplification with a weak trough in between at that kind of timeframe, then it is easy to envisage a slightly different amplification scenario with a little tweaking. So, better amplification nearer the UK, or to our west, then we have a Scandi high and not an EST Europe block.

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?

Taps fingers.......waiting game now. Looks like snow here will be around 1am Sunday

Haha

Big indications tonight that any Atlantic assault will be repelled and the cold will fight back. Promising, as this is at the edge of reliable modelling. In fact, next Thursdays low may be being overplayed somewhat, and 850’s probably will stay sub zero for everywhere apart from Lands End.

What. A. Run.

Perhaps if I am lucky enough to get snowcover on unfrozen ground then I can remove a section before a night time freeze and the compare to further falls on uncovered and covered ground and see what firs best. A bit of a blue peter experiment, but what the heck, lol.

I would just like to say that anyone who wants to discuss the model aspect of the upcoming cold spell, then that is fine. If anyone also wants to discuss a possible model breakdown of the possible cold spell that hasn’t occurred yet, then that is fine also. If it is model related, then it is on topic. For those who don’t want to discuss the possible upcoming cold spell, then don’t. For those who don’t want to discuss the breakdown or longevity of any possible cold spell, then don’t. But please let everyone have the freedom to discuss any part of the models they wish. Discuss, fine. Diss, not fine.

My experience of these type of scenarios, is that every 6 hours when the next model run is available to view, the cold spell gets prolonged by 3-5 hours. So it gets pushed back in time but eventually arrives. In the same way as cold charts are always 10 days or so away, the models tend to be over progressive initially at any breakdown. But then when it reels in to more reliable timeframes it is wallop and a quick breakdown results.

Please please stop using this thread as a vehicle to express angst at location desired outcomes. If you are discussing synoptic scenarios that concern certain areas, then fine. If you want to solely discuss your own area, then use the regionals. But please respect that everyone who posts on here will do so with their first interest being for their own location. IT’S NOT BIAS! Just understandable human nature, And the more people that live in a certain location the more that wil be taking their own location into consideration. Please use the regionals for specific location forecasts but still don’t be put of posting in here when describing model output whatever your location. it gets tiresome for both members and moderators seeing and having to deal with this.

How quickly can cold nights freeze the warmer soil temps? With snow cover? I really don’t know because the insulating effect of snowcover can work both ways.

This is where the ECM and UKMO excel. The ECM may not be that great at picking a trend - well done to the GFS for that, but modelling in the 4-6 day timeframe is meat and drink to the ECM. So this run is another vital run in that timeframe.

I need an ENE streamer with strong winds to benefit. With lower heights then instability increases and the amount of snow reaching me does too.

Somewhere in between, with waxing and waning.

Oh, it can definitely improve and remove the marginality in the coastal regions. It’s only Wednesday, so I am not going to get too excited yet. I have a friend in Bognor, who I am giving her snow percentage values for next week. Laying snow that is. Monday, I said 30%, yesterday was a bit of a rollercoaster but finished on 35%. I will wait until this evenings 18Z before giving today’s outlook. But it may rise a little more.

Working out when to transfer, the majority of my emphasis from MOD thread to this thread. Saturday afternoon I reckon.

Jeepers, next week It looks like there will be more knife edges than a restaurant cutlery draw, with the battle between cold and mild across the southern half of the UK.

So, no point in looking at the later output. Big steps earlier in this run, that’s what counts.

If the Atlantic low engages properly then we are close to boom scenario.

I like to think that the GFS pendulum swing, is swinging a bit less this run. Slowly slowly