chionomaniac

Yep, I never understand those who concentrate on 850s and small scale Synoptics at this timeframe. My advice is - just don’t- look at the ensemble means and trending members, and use a bit of lateral thinking to imagine how surface conditions can change with slight change in macro scale Synoptics. Then you see big boom outcomes. I certainly don’t think we have seen the best ( or worst if you don’t like cold) of winter.

This looks pretty good with better amplification. One doesn’t need to look further really. There is only one road forward....

Oh the joy of working long hours and missing a days output. Just had a little nosey - some great and improving ensembles throughout the day. I guess a blocking episode is fairly likely now - whether or not the orientation or position is in our favour remains to be seen. Hopefully this will continue and peak at the 18Z when I can view a run!

With all the emotional investment and model time put in this year, I really hope that @sebastiaan1973 can get to skate over thick ice this year. It means so much to him that it would nice to see him rewarded

I have often suggested that the return of upper strat westerlies ‘flush’ down the easterly component towards the trop, so yes. The reverse is true at the start of the SSW

Anyone in the south, who says this is a poor run for us, needs to look at the bigger picture and look at the synoptic evolution and avoid the 850’s. We have a wonderful looking NH profile, very post SSW look to it. Just look at the Arctic high being matched by the eastern Iceland high. Great alignment to deliver long lasting deep cold to all areas of the UK. The Atlantic low here is set to trigger the colder air further south, and encourage a deep cold air flow across the warm North Sea. Of course this wonderful scenario may not come to fruition, but lots of variations would still deliver. A good day with the models, and one I have been waiting for ( expecting) for a while now.

I would just like to say that I don’t take any offence at Tamara's post and I am happy for it to stand. She is entitled to her opinion just as I am. I can’t deny being a chionophile, but I can say that if I see no chance of cold prospects then I either will state that or say nothing at all. But I still think that there are strong opportunities for severe cold outbreaks in the forthcoming period, but no guarantees and I’m sure Tamara realises that too.

Lol. What makes you think I am chionophile? I was under the impression that your reply was inconclusive regarding mid latitude outcomes and I sincerely apologise if that was not the case.

Lol. I pull teeth a lot quicker than the GFS!

Yep. Agreed. But not the full Scandinavia block. Even better if inclination is favourable

Looks like angle of amplification is heading towards potent NEasterly. Maybe. Perhaps.

Lol. Pub run looks like it may have found a boozer avoiding the lockdown. Looks like Atlantic block heading to Greenland. Is MJO aligning with SSW?

I had to read your post a couple of times, Tamara and thank you for replying. I do think that the real advance of coming to terms with how tropical responses can affect longer term mid latitude outcomes depends upon being able to make structured forecasts (not punts) on the tropical base states. Otherwise we can become experts at retrospectively analysing tropical events but useless at forecasting based on these events. Surely, the reason in understanding GLAAM, and responses to these events is to give us a stronger capability to forecast further ahead than we would ordinarily be able to, based on them. If we can’t then is there any point? I suspect that it make take some time and a number of years before this is possible, but it would be great for someone who has such great knowledge to be able to move us towards that next stage forward. And as you know, as you were analysing the Jan 2009 SSW response we were fortunate to get the immediate response from the split vortex but longer term underlying tropical imprints may have overridden the strat in prolonging the response. So much to learn, and I look forward to the day when you feel more confident to predict the mid latitude response to tropical events to a specific outcome.

Hmmm, ECM at it again for southern counties. A slush fest 2 weekends on the trot?

Well there ends another historic non event. Hopefully it will dry up this afternoon now

Raining again in Hayward’s heath. So far I have seen rain, graupel, hail, sleet and about 30 seconds of snow. Bloody miserable

Snow now in Hayward’s heath. Proper

Had 10 mins of hail. Ground is white

Precipitation getting tantalisingly close now

For me 1-2 hours of probably of wet snow between 9-10 am followed by a wait for the fading occlusion to drift south and then minimal. Met office app suggests sleet only too. Normally the worst case scenario is the real scenario in expected snowfalls. Probably get more on Monday when not mentioned

Ok UKV just updated closer now Still a miserable amount of snow as far as I am concerned.

Difficult to say but just looking again my angle in Ireland is wrong anyway

I suspect that northwards model push and latest radar is making things less likely for snow over far southern areas. My apps have gone for a far heavier sleet event

Radar vs UKv difference indicated as best I can

I would go for somewhere lick Rickmansworth as being the sweet spot with 8cm