chionomaniac

I admire anyone who tries and explain things in a different language. Us brits have a special sense of humour too.

Ultimately cold last third of the month. Significantly so.

Experience tells me that the GFS has the signal for some type of Atlantic amplification but hasn’t worked it out yet. In the following chart combine the two Atlantic depressions together, and double the amplification northwards and that is probably closer to the real scenario...

Apologies. I didn’t mean to offend, but you brought a smile to my face. No mean thing in these times!

Funny enough, I never believed that the low north of the UK would remain stationary or slowly move east. It just didn’t look right, so good to see it dropping somewhat south now.

As ever it will depend on individual synoptic circumstances. We have seem ensembles throw themselves over a cliff like lemmings after following a different path to the operational and vice versa. Luckily we are in the position of both knowing the nuances of certain outputs, and can look at many different models and ensembles. Human input and experience though does have a merit too when taking all these variations into consideration.

Lol. A full SSW. like a mini tornado. BW linked to Amy’s paper and this is the recognised definition of an SSW. Whether or not the strat PV is totally destroyed or not, is not relevant to the definition, but is definitely relevant to what happens after

Hopefully will have time to have a good look at all the strat runs tomorrow and work out where we are heading. Initial thoughts are for another wave 1 warming. With the strat vortex already weakened and trying to recover, this is not a bad thing for the continuance of winter. Anyone who suggests that the trop vortex is likely to recover and regain strength are standing on thin ice. Best wait til it thickens. Last third of Jan looks very promising. We have already had a synoptic wish list ticked off this winter, but without the expected linked T850’s. Luckily we still have time for that to change with the strat pv heading for another kicking.

LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. Oh,..... and I forecast the SSW before him and got the date closer. So do a bit of research first, thank you.

It’s the distinct Faroe island high pressure that is catching my eye

Early signs on this run. Block is collapsing Less. I just wonder how much these early changes can influence the latter stages....

Seconded lol

Will be interesting to see the ECM strat charts tomorrow. I did expect this kind of amplification slightly earlier though. Certainly keeps those who think winter is finished biting their nails, whilst mine grow longer.

Just checked UKV and it forecasts dps to be 0°C across the west from West Sussex and also including north downs. Elsewhere 1°c with exposed coastal fringes remaining around 2°C

Dewpoints will normally drop off at night if airmass is consistent. Strong winds from the sea will modify this somewhat, so less of a drop further east

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Dewpoints dropping over the region now. 0°c Hampshire way 1°C West Sussex 2°c further east. Essex/ Kent. so any precipitation that makes it further across the region more likely to reach the ground as snow

Lol. It just looks far more distorted in that small frame

Imagine being on the end of the line of this Channel streamer hitting NW France north of Brest. But only if it was snow.

On a line passing through herstmonceux and Greenwich

I like an ENE direction that we are having. But I think your compass settings are a little out lol

Party away Sheldon. I’d rather be on the Vengabus, than endure a bit of sleet as the highlight of winter.

Just drove home from East Grinstead to Hayward’s Heath. The only stronger burst of precipitation I encountered was sleety rain. It’s a start I guess

I wonder whether we’ll see one of those scenarios where each day the return to milder conditions is delayed a day. Wouldn’t surprise me. Also, the models have all picked up on a more zonal pattern over the last 24 hours. Another thing that is quite common is that signal is somewhat overblown and it takes a few days for the pendulum to be dampened and the real picture emerges.

Lol. Good ole pub run delivering a straighter northerly and less of a collapsing ridge this is probably due to far stronger Iberian low