chionomaniac

Just worked out that I am 69m asl and 16 miles from the coast. I’d give myself 0.5°c for altitude and 1°C for sea modification. Small margins

For coastal areas in our region, it with be important to see what is happening in the south coast thread early tomorrow. If Isle of Wight sees snow, then relax. If it doesn’t, then start looking at Southampton and Portsmouth. If they don’t, then the marginal risk is great further east. ( obviously further east has better chances with more continental flow and probably lower dps

Just reading through your post, and the one thing that I notice is that despite the drop in GLAAM, and a reduction of the more Nino-ish December response, we have yet to see a traditional Nina H500 pattern to develop. I suspect that we have to grateful for the SSW for that - not only for well recognised polar and mid latitude responses, but also the feedback indirectly to tropical regions. I know that there are those who are far more qualified to put more meat on the bones regarding this than me and there have been a number of papers on this in the last few years, but it is another wild card thrown into the equation. And, if you had to, and your life depended on it, what would your punt for February be? After all, you have spent years on research of mid latitude responses to tropical forcing, it would be great to see the end product of what you consider more likely. One of the reasons, that I suspect you don’t or can’t ( you are not alone) is the lack of forecast data in this field. This would help a lot. When looking at the data, it is recording what has already occurred and the MJO forecasts are reliably unreliable. This makes commentary on what has happened far easier than being able to predict in the mid range. I think that the sooner that we can get more pieces in this jigsaw, the better.

I reckon that shows a mixture of rain, sleet and a wet snow slush fest for all southern coastal counties

I was talking about south of the M4. Any winter night that reaches freezing, one can expect ice - but is that worthy of a warning? Freezing rain is, but general frost and ice on a expected cold winters night. Nope not for me. Save the warning for more severe conditions.

Just to add, my main issue here is with the dreadful metoffice warning. Jeez, I wish I was in control of that department, I would really shake it up and completely overhaul the met office warning system.

It was a poor warning but the narrative suggested rain and sleet for southern areas. So no it didn’t.

Was the warning for snow tonight?

With these variable forecasts and marginal scenarios, as far as I am concerned- it doesn’t snow until it snows. The models suggesting it won’t here have been far more accurate than those that suggest it will.

It’s a pity that you can’t link your outside temp to your webcam.would have been very interesting with yesterday’s dramatic drop.

So many river levels in the north west are at their highest eve levels. Too many to mention. Many around Warrington. Hopefully rain will ease over the next few hours, but still moderate currently.

This is not what the North west wants to see atm

From this to this

The channel low runner is a shortwave west of Ireland at T+48 on the ECM

03z ukv has the system clipping the south coast. Doesn’t get as far as north of the Thames. Be interesting to see next extended run 1500z

Latest readings and warnings from the upstream Mersey

River Mersey close to flooding

Here is the last 24 hours totals according to NW beta radar

Probably some areas. looking at the Severn tributaries and some forecast record river levels

Latest radar shows the train of persistent moderate rain hitting north wales before heading eastwards Looking at that, perhaps north wales should be included in the amber warning?

River Ouse in York forecast levels

I agree. The met office warning system has left a lot to be desired. But that is another thread.

Lol. I am aware of catchment areas, Matty. But thanks for the clarification

I suspect the EA only mention England in their report solely because that is the area they are responsible for. No more no less. Perhaps you should contact them for clarification

The catchment area is any tributary that flows into the river regardless of country. I am sure that the EA aren’t pedantic over whether it is Wales or England. They have a responsibility to the area they have to cover. And will also be looking at this