chionomaniac

The MCS is fading in activity - more an area of heavy rain with stronger convective sferic elements on its northern and eastern edge. More activity behind towards Bordeaux. I suspect that as it is still early that any grunge remaining preventing home grown storms tomorrow will have passed to the north by mid morning, allowing further home grown activity for the midlands from around lunchtime. Geckozilla it may end up being!

Never underestimate the ability of Godzilla to turn into nothing more than a gecko by the time it reaches our shores!

MCS can be used to describe a multicell system (ie many cells absorbed into 1 system). However, sometimes the organisation of these systems can arrange into something stronger known as a mesoscale convective system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_convective_system The one in France is shaping up quite nicely.

Doesn't look linear to me Harry. Looks like an MCS to me! Just need it to keep getting new cells form and absorbed as it heads north.

It it were to maintain intensity (and there is enough on the NW lightning archive now to show how many collapse as they leave France) then probably in the direction indicated but definitely a radar watch evening. oops forgot chart

Look at that beast develop over western France.....

Looking promising for this evening. I saw bands of Altocumulus castellanus on the way home from East Grinstead this evening as well as a large cumulonimbus calvus to my east. Looking at the radar in France the prospects are enticing!

One can trace the line back towards north of Manchester from the northern line of showers. There is a recent one formed just north of Rochdale - I wonder could we see something as far south as Crewe in the next hour.

I see that there is a slight risk area southern Wyoming/ West Nebraska for tomorrows trip south! That's helpful and it would be rude not to as you will be passing that way! Also today's tube risk has reached 5% for SE Montana - could just be achievable!

Just looked at the models and have plumped for exactly the same as Neil - Gillette - the best a man can get, hey? Does anyone know where the team are overnighting? I wonder how many miles that brand new car will have on it at the end of the first tour!

Well, there is a desperate outlook over the next few days over the plains for those out there presently. It rather reminds me of the time that I went out there in 2011 and I feel for the tour 1 guests - however, a big saving grace is that the guests make a close knit community and have a great time regardless - I know that I certainly did! The present east positioned trough is responsible for removing all the heat and moisture and conditions that need to be present to create severe storms in the plains and it will be some time before this turns around. However, the signs are there that by the middle of next week the DP's and temps will have recovered sufficiently as a new upper trough hits the west, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some more traditional dryline panhandle chasing on the cards by Wednesday/ Thursday next week. Keep your fingers crossed tour 2!

Great blog Jo. I use the radar all the time to time the dog walks in this type of weather!

Big couple now on the storm. It could produce.

Distinct inflow notch on that second cell - Tornadoraiders are on it.

Ironically the cell that they are blasting through is also growing

By the way they are motoring now I suspect that they are on to it and trying to intercept the severely warned cell. It's the first one in their area that has looked interesting.

Things are just starting to get interesting now with a strongly coupled storm to the teams south and they look in a good position to intercept.

Could be an interesting chase in none familiar terrain, thanks Jo. Good luck. - And hopefully not too long until you are in clear air on the other side of the front! Sfc temp of 81 and DP 65 in Kirksville Iowa in front of you.

Where are you heading for Jo?

Just had a quick look at the models for the first time today and I think my starting point will be Ottumwa in Iowa. Haven't a clue what the chase terrain is like that far NE mind you - never really looked at a map up there!! And will be prepared to go east from there!

There is a tornado in there on and off. I have failed to see it on a stream yet though!

Did you see the smouldering power line that must have just been hit by lightning in the bears pit?

Might be worth keeping an eye on the cell behind.

I am using radar scope - better than nothing Red warned now and tornado is rain wrapped

Tornado reported wrapped in rain on Hastings cell. And it has right turned with great inflow.