chionomaniac

Check out Jeffrey Gonzales stream on the same storm. He's concerned that it could be a right turner.

The cell the team are heading to south of Hastings is yellow boxed and already has nice inflow/ outflow reflectivity

Jo, the streaming is great and the excitement tangible!

It's working now!

Tornado watch issued now http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0142.html

First signs of bits and pieces bubbling up now!

It's not Jo's job - I just asked her on the other thread as I saw her looking in!

Latest satellite of the area shows cirrus field (I think) - can't make out whether there is a cumulus field under that! http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20140511&endTime=-1&duration=0

Jo, I see that you are looking in - can you turn the streaming on please?

It's brewing nicely Neil. The last few years your target areas have been spot on so no doubt that your original target of Fairbury will be right in the mix!

MD issued for the teams target area with tornado watch likely. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0562.html

I think Paul is heading to Beatrice NE. Latest update shrinks the more severe area (10% hatched tornado) away from KS now. Already upto 82 and DP 65 in Salina KS.

I have gone for a little bit further south than you Neil - Concordia KS. The dew points and temps are a little higher, hopefully that wiil add a little bit more in the mix when the cap breaks late afternoon. I think that I will stick there for the time being looking at the latest 11Z RAP. Edit latest 1300Z convective discussion has extended the moderate risk zone further south into KS and increased the 10% probability zone in KS and IO Previous New

I am going for a starting point of Concordia KS for Sunday. This is slightly west of the teams current position and towards the southern end of the moderate risk zone. Conditions here hopefully will be ripe for long lived supercell formation, dewpoints into the mid to high 60's, temps into the high 80's by mid afternoon situated along the warm front where surface wind convergence will aid the uplift. God, I wish I was out there! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Stay safe folks!

Well done guys, what a great start for the 'pre' tour. What great structure. Good luck for today!

Be good to hear Paul's thoughts, but with an early start I reckon that they could make southern KS by initiation time and decide where exactly to head for on the way. I think that I would make out for Arkansas City Southern KS to be there around 3pm local time.

That's good Paul, - so where are they now - in Irving or have they already made route further north?

What time are the last tour 1 guests arriving on Saturday? Hopefully early, because the team may want to hit the road ASAP. Looks like a good start beckons with a few consecutive slight risk days as a positively tilted surface trough is in position stretching from the NE to SW central plains before a ridge builds from the west.

There is no Final Warming (FW) forecast inside any relaible timeframe as far as I can see. Remember to acheive a FW we need to see zonal mean wind reversal at 10hPA and 60ºN that then doesn't return to positive until the next stratospheric winter.

The stratospheric polar vortex is always a weak net easterly during summer and therefore the positioning of any ridges and troughs are liklely to be tropospheric led - not startospheric led. The tropospheric polar cell is still present in the summer - it is just a lot weaker than winter and one shouldn't confuse the underlying summer stratospheric conditions with that of the troposphere.

I think that it is unlikely given the resistance of the mid to lower vortex to the wave activity. Take for example the latest forecast that shows a strong burst of wave 1 activity - this momentarily causes a 1hPa mean zonal mean wind reversal at 60N -but this is short lived and hardly creates an indent to 10-30hPA level vortex strength. I see a slow relaxing of the tropospheric polar vortex from now on into spring with the jet stream slowly receding northwards. No major meridional pattern likely, despite the MJO forecasts.

Just had to delete a few posts - please keep on topic and do not insult people over their spelling, thanks.

Yes I agree, an easy to understand, well written piece, Nick.

Oh dear.... just seen this after I posted in the strat thread...

It starting to look like we may not quite get the 'biggie' strat event that looked possible a few weeks ago with the GFS pulling away now from that idea. That to me was most likely to be the winter saviour (before winter started). Option 1 anyone for Feb? February February is the most difficult month to predict, as there are two likely outcomes. The first is another average to slightly above average month temperature wise, with again average precipitation. The second outcome is for a significantly colder month with below average temperatures and the risk of heavy snow and easterly winds. This very much depends on whether we see a SSW in the stratosphere. In the second scenario the ridge that has been building towards Scandinavia will dominate the UK, whereas in the first outcome the trough to the west would be likely to dominate the UK. YUK!