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chionomaniac

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Everything posted by chionomaniac

  1. chionomaniac
    I reckon it will be sooner than that. Going on the visual I reckon between T+288 and T+300.
  2. chionomaniac
    Yes - a good one this.
  3. chionomaniac
    No, you actually said a 'transition from cool to mild' at the end of the week. Again, I politely request to show where on the models this is so. The GFS, which shows the T2 temps, has no double figures leading into next Monday other than the Scilly Isles with the vast majority of the country no more than 5-6ºC max. And please could you put your location in your avatar, thanks.
  4. chionomaniac
    Funny enough I can't find a mild chart for the end of the week, SG. Please can you show where you come to this conclusion from. To back me up here is the T2 temp GFS chart for Friday 12Z
  5. chionomaniac
    The GFS doesn't look good for flooded areas parking the low over us. UKMO 12Z again showing a big difference from its 00Z run. Who knows what the end of next week will bring.
  6. chionomaniac
    The runs start with the GFS with a slightly stronger Scandi block by T+72.
  7. chionomaniac
    Looks like the 06Z is becoming the 'SSW run!'
  8. chionomaniac
    Battleground scenario at T+126 Beautifully aligned negatively tilted Atlantic low meets the cold air - northern areas could see a bonanza
  9. chionomaniac
    Quite a shift west already on the 6Z GFS - those colder -10ºC 850's over Scandi are closing in on the UK!
  10. chionomaniac
    In trying to offer balance to this thread, Shed, I feel that you go too far the other way and present a bias of the opposite to the predominant cold bias that most members here show. What it would be nice for you to present is a truly balanced post, more along the lines of there is great uncertainty regarding how far the Atlantic will push through against the Scandi block following mid week. There are a number of solutions on offer from all the different models which have chopped and changed against themselves from run to run. Perhaps even put up the ensemble anomalies, rather than one or two cherry picked operationals (even these show stalling lows) - here is one from the ECM for T+240 - this suggests that any Atlantic inroads stall or slide SE as they come up against the block: The NAEFS suite for the same time stretches the Atlantic trough over the UK but again suggests that any Atlantic attack will not travel further east than the UK and there are suggestions again that this will slide SW. Balance in thread is great, but when those offering it justify it by offering a bias in the opposite direction it can be very frustrating. At least those searching for cold are quite overt with the bias! Oh and just to differentiate, here is a chart from 2 years ago showing the Atlantic 'pushing through'
  11. chionomaniac
    I reckon so as well - look west and east - both great at T+174
  12. chionomaniac
    I don't think that we need look too much further than T+120 - already a big jump westwards in this timeframe and that is good enough for me! Waiting for the FI strat output now.
  13. chionomaniac
    Hmm is that more than a hint of the UKMO output in the 12Z GFS? Looks like it.
  14. chionomaniac
    Model thread!
  15. chionomaniac
    That is the first stratospheric BOOM of the season! long way to go...
  16. chionomaniac
    First technical SSW forecast...
  17. chionomaniac
    Wonderful descriptive post from Recretos above suggesting how we can mak our own vortex with a bucket of water! No surprise to see this ECM strat run with another increase in wave 2 activity. I have been expecting the ECM to pick this up. However, there are big differences in the way that the vortex splits and reforms when comparing the runs and I wouldn't be surprised to see these differences filter through to the trop. On a personal level, no SSW forecast just yet, but the stratosphere vortex is behaving how it was suggested it would do when using the previous years analogues. I feel that we are getting somewhere in being able to predict stratospheric conditions for the season ahead - however, translating that to tropospheric patterns is another ball game completely and a lot more work is needed there!
  18. chionomaniac
    A change in geopotential height from wave activity is not a change in temperature, no matter how intrinsically the two may be linked so it is not misleading at all, cc. It is better to be accurate and differentiate between the two, so that confusion doesn't occur.
  19. chionomaniac
    Another great post from our technical expert, Andrej! Interestingly when looking at the chart for the 9/1/13 that you have posted it is possible to see that the there are three waves superimposed on each other here and that was confirmed when I checked back on that date. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_NH_2013.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE2_MEAN_ALL_NH_2013.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE2_MEAN_ALL_NH_2013.gif
  20. chionomaniac
    perhaps at that point there is very little interrun difference....
  21. chionomaniac
    So annoying that, I think that most on here have lost a long post one way or another!
  22. chionomaniac
    Perhaps you will look after your own house rather than worrying about others. Posting on here is a privilege and not a right and you would do well to remember that rather than demanding on moderators.
  23. chionomaniac
    Please keep on topic - posts about twitter account holders will be deleted.
  24. chionomaniac
    I am thinking of putting this to the team as well. The problem with tweets is that they are condensed into a few words and can be often made as responses to other tweets or one of a series of tweets. Tweets are so short that they cannot often give a comprehensive view of what is occurring model wise and therefore can be easily misinterpreted. They are not first hand model discussion - more hearsay from other sources, and so at this point I would ask that those wishing to post copies of tweets refrain from doing so until the moderating team decide upon a policy. Thanks.
  25. chionomaniac
    Waves aren't warmings, BUS. They are exactly what we say they are, waves, and in this case extremely large planetary ones. A wave with a wavelength number of 1, if it starts at the UK, will have 1 peak and 1 trough as we pass through it around the NH before it arrives back at the UK. Wave 1 Ps probably would have been better to place the axis the other way to what i have constructed through the peak and trough! A wave number two has peaks and troughs as demonstrated here: And so on and so forth. So a wave number three has three peaks and troughs - but these planetary waves are less easy to demonstrate.
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