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Harsh Climate

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    12z Model discussion - rain, sleet or snow?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Absolute BUMMER, where is tall pauls dome. :(

    Although its probably 80%-20% aggainst us getting a good dumping on thursday, there is still time for change! If the charts are the same come tommorow at 6pm, then I think weve been well and truly rajd!

    This is so annoying! every cold spell in the last 10 years has failed to produce hardly anything, yet even the classic set-up seems like its guna dissapoint us...

    Cold Spell General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Lol yes the -12 is OTT but I wouldn't be surprised to see a -9/10... It's going to be one cold walk to school!

    I know it looks good doesn't it!

    But I'm worried about it fizzling out.

    That chart isn't too bad actually Yeti. were north of the 528 dam line and the front is shown as a stationary occlusion rather than a dying front....

    Cold Spell General Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Jed,

    Sorry mate I've only just spotted your post.

    My thoughts are very much the same as yours, that the precipitation will have

    fizzled out before it reaches us.

    However I think you have a better chance than I do given where you are situated.

    I think it will be well worth watching the Radar though.

    And a very good 5 minute Radar is available on Netweather for only

    37.5 pence a week.

    Brian.

    Yes radar will be a key tool on thursday! :) Im sure we'll see some snow though (albeit small.)

    Ive also got a sneeky suspicion that saturday could deliver us some snow too...

    Cold spell - general discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I would be very happy if I lived in your location - irrespective of snow amounts (and you look favoured to get some) you will probably stay in the cold air throughout the period up to and perhaps including the weekend.

    I am in the least favoured location for this set-up with little prospect of any snow beyond a few more flurries as I have now, and am waiting and hoping for the cold air to head south with time on the basis of continued rises of pressure to the north and the low pressure being forced ever further south

    :)

    Your right in what your saying Tamara but Id be annoyd if I dont get more than an inch of snow from this, because this is the only really set-up that favours my location (baring an easterly :) ) and from haveing so many let downs in the last 10 years, to haveing the most textbook/classic weather set-up fail would be so dissapointing.... :):)

    Now Ive had my little moan, Im just guna remain doubtfull, that way I wont be too dissapointd if I miss out. Although Im allways joking about not wanting the south to see anysnow, I wish good look to you all.. we live in a c*** climate so, we all deserve to see some exciting weather!

    Cold spell - general discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Wow what a welcome sight that is Mick :)

    Certainly not in the bag yet Graupel :)

    I feel that its all or nothing, an area stretching about 80 miles north-south will get some heavy snow (3''-6")... but outside this, amounts will be small... Ive just got a sneeky feeling that it will reach as far north as south yorkshire/linconshire before fizzling out as it pushes further north... :):):)

    What are you thoughts on this?

    06z model discussions

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Nailbiting times at the moment! The GFS shows snow pushing upto northern england on thursday but other models goin aggainst it! :o

    I fear that us in northern england may be hugely dissapointed as chances are the midlands/south yorkshire get hammered by many centimetres of snow! :cold:

    Regarding the snow potential in Yorkshire over the next few days, Il be starting a blog a tonight so stay tuned fellow Yorkshirers.. ;)

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jed Bickerdike

    Tbh -7 is fine as an 850hpa temp, and -5 can also easily see snow if other factors are right. In this setup, pressure is very low and so -10 is not needed for snow. It's always going to be marginal at lower levels, although anywhere midlands or N'wards looks fine IMO.

    Minor changes in the low's position could make all the difference, but I as say all I am dreading is the low being progged too far N.

    lol, my fear is that itl be too far south and we miss all the snow, while the likes of sheffield get hammered! :drinks:

    Anyone got a link of the NOAA's talks about the 12z? :D

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    how on earth can

    Isn't the UKMO chart the least accurate normally? Or does that change seeing as it's showing a good snowy spell of weather?

    you believe that?

    Aside from my obvious belief in ex colleagues ability. How can a man/model interface not be better than a model on its own?

    And that relates to any time scale.

    what if the man/model interface is EvertonFox/NOGAPS? :)

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I might get put in a straight Jacket for this but I think generally the GFS is the best model! I know you can get some wild runs thrown in every known n again but if you can pick a trend up in those runs its usually right.

    I think the ECMWF has been very poor this winter, the JMA has suprised me a little and certainly worth looking at in the future (prior to these type set-ups) and at close range the UKMO is a very good indicator of what you might get..

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A few things to politely request:

    1) This is the model discussion, so please, keep on topic

    2) WiB is not a 'mild ramper', and by no means does he go around acting smug (and please, can we stop using him as an example, to which the example used, is not correct)

    3) Can we please remove this 'Mild Ramper' jibberish...its just plain silly

    And back to the models...

    ok sorry, I might have got a little carried away..

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The gfs is all over the place and as its overdone the energy coming off the PV and been much too progressive, the most consistent model by far during the last few days has been the ukmo. I hope the ukmo verifies even though its not great for my region but sensational for more northern areas, good luck up there and lets hope to see some good snow pics, still chances of some snow further south, still room for changes either way especially as pressure now looks to build again to the north and ne.

    Thank you :) and keep those great forecasts goin :)

    good luck to you guys down south two, I just feel that either the south or the north is guna mis-out somewhat.. :db:

    I

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    sorry i disagree that hes a mild ramper... ive never seen him, or anyone ramp up mild weather as much as the snow lovers ramp up snow.... ok so snow is a rare event, but ramping is ramping.

    imho west posts honestly, he says what he sees and not what he wants to see.

    Thats fair enough but its frustrating seeing people go for mild everytime then act smug everytime there correct, when all there forecasts are based on is basically 'weather lore'.There right because mild wins nearly everytime..

    Yet when theres a great chance of cold they still go aggainst the concensus (go on ther own cos they know there likely to be right and take great credit for goin on it alone... But only this time it looks as if the cold could win through and bite those on the azz...

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jed Bickerdike

    I must admit I'll be quite disappointed if I don't see a decent fall later this week (if I'm honest, just don't let the weather gods hear !). But I remember a similar setup from New Years Eve a few years ago where the models were promising loads of frontal snow, but, whilst we got about two hours of snow, it turned to rain and was just about gone by morning - a very chastening experience in terms of model predicitions vs. reality, and the models have been so inconsistent in forecasting this week so far that I'm still very reluctant to take anything more than likely trends from them.

    haha, I remember that one.. It snowed beteen 8 Pm-1am before turning to rain, we recieved a foot of snow from it!

    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I heartily agree with you :lol:

    But again, given the way things are going just about the only thing that can be reasonably sure is that it'll be pretty quiet and cold (especially overnight) for the next two days. And there seems to be reasonable agreement that something will happen from Thursday onwards (!), but whether this is snow or rain, and where, and when, is still completely undecided. I honestly think we won't have a clear picture until Wednesday night, and maybe not even until Thursday when we can actually view the precipitation radars and the actual temperature reports ! - it is that uncertain at the moment

    I think there will definatly be snow, just where? remains the question. Most probably on the northern side of any precipitation moveing in....

    Hey your at an alltitude of over 900ft, no need to get greedy now! ;);)

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