Harsh Climate
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I don`t remember that occasion the snow never made it this far north perhaps.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119780219.gif
It won`t be nothing like feb 1978 now feb 1996 looks more likely though and the upper air wasn`t that low either it snowed here anyway,the last battleground I saw before last March,the last major snowfall I saw in feb though with 8 inches on that day
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119960206.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219960206.gif
This looks even better than that with a better angle of approach and colder upper air temps.
wow, the charts now are looking better than them (although subject to changes.) We got 10inches one night dureing that set-up.
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Youd have to give the gratest risk of snow at the moment to inland areas, East of the pennines might not see too much snow due to the high ground nabing it all..
but away from here youd have to fancy central southern/eastern scotland/midlands/high ground in eastern wales as being at high risk.If all things went perfectly central southern england/south east could be at risk of very heavy snowfalls pushing up from the channel as a small depression or two brushes past...
http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20070...t~Yorkshire.png
not bad esembles too...
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Jed pse keep on topic as Paul has asked there is a thread for Countryfile.
ok, will do
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Pheeeeew! Its John Hammond.
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The tension is nailbiting!
To be honest it cant be taken too seriously, I just want to see some nice blobs of white over northern england/midlands!
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Id prefer Mcelwee or gibs to do it..
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lets face it, the bbc are useless, so I wouldnt be too disheartened if its poor....
Im just hoping it isnt Everton Fox doing it
, Hed find some way of getting mild in there, dont you worry.. :o -
I've put my latest unofficial ideas on blog 6 for anyone wanting to look.
cheers
John
where can I find this?
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No need to worry about the rest of this run, it is an upgrade on the 00z and most importantly maintains the trend. :o
After 120h at the moment is FI, I reckon... lol I normally have it around 180h-204h lol.
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Dare I say it, things are looking fantastic.
Even rain preceeded by snow, followed by a strong southwesterly from a truly mild sourcs can last for hours, yet alone what these charts are showing! Id hazard to guess what could happen in this situation! :o
But still too early to be celebrating, although whatever happens, itl have been great just to watch the country file forecast!
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Well, were the heck did the 00z UKMO charts come from!?
absolutly cracking.. shame the next major player (ECMWF) has different ideas..... :o Just like I keep saying, avoiding low pressure developeing over northern scandinavia is key to a true scandi high developeing..
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I want snow for everyone not just my or anyones particular area , i think we have all suffered this winter ,i think sounding a little smug can just annoy folk
lol, I think its because I knew people from another board (dont ask which one) from the south east.. they were very arrogant and seemd to boast about all the snow and thundertorms they got, and moaned when they werent getting any.. I think thats why there may seem to be a little anomocity.
Il try and be nicer to the southeast lol as people on here from there seem allright...
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Out of interest, if all went to plan, what kind of accumulations could i be looking at above 200 metres?????
Difficult to say but If everything went perfectly Id say 10-15". But with the way things are going id say probably 1"-3" of temporary snowcover at some stage.
It just depends on
. how much cold air we can get trapped in the ridge of high pressure to start with.
.how quickly the fronts push in from the west
.wether or not we can get any easterly type feed filtering into the mild air trying to push in from the west, which would help keep things cold.
.how the precipitation falling brings down the temperature.
Lets not forget, once there is snow cover and the clouds dissipate (into night time), very low minima would be achieved leading to a very cold morning.... which if there was more precipitation moveing in, a replay of more precipitation moveing into very cold stationary air turning into snow could commend..
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Dissapointing temperature difference from the 06z this morning
Lets hope it's wrong.
I dont mind this too much. The 06z is a massive turn for the worst compared to the 00z regarding the battleground situation, yet we are still at risk of seeing some persistent snow (settling snow still remains the question) in our area.
In these situations north/west/south yorkshire are renound for doing better than others in low lying areas..
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Do you dislike the SE as you always seem to refer to this location .
I wouldn't be to smug TBH if the current trend continues because the SE could well be the place to be!.
ovcoarse I dont
Its just that the battleground scenario neava affects the south east. Its ussually scotland/nothern/england/midlands and possibly a few locations not far away from them..
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You guys in the south east can forget the 'battleground' scenario bringing you snow, it aint guna happen...... Start looking over to scandinavia, height rises extending north and west of there are key. And like I keep saying it all boils down to not haveing low pressure to the north of scandinavia...
But for us in northern england, very exciting times ahead! As things stand Id say around 200m plus for any real aaccumalative snow that lasts a good while..
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Some of you lot need to get back to specsavers n purchase some new glasses!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png
whats *bad* about this?
Just as Ive stated, the expected low pressure over scandinavia is the key to whether or not we can get a worthwile scandi high. no low pressure there n things get interesting!
lol, the south east were never at risk from the battleground scenario... still looks good for me though...
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It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)
The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.
lol what charts are you looking at?
The ECMWF this morning is cracking!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif This chart shows slow progress of the fronts trying to push north east, the fronts might even be pushing south east on this with a southerly to northerly tilt in the winds.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif
According to this chart, the air would then be feeding in off the sea a bit and with the onset of mild atlantic air being held atbay for a another day or so.. :lol:
Remember, ussually when we get rain preceeded by snow is because the rainband pushes quickly through and is followed quickly by a strong southwesterly of some sorts. This isnt the case this time. :lol:
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png
Low pressure over scandinavia less aparant. Remember this is the key if where to get a good scandinavian high develope..
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Latest met office forecast:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Feb 2007 to Thursday 15 Feb 2007:
Dry, cold and mostly sunny conditions at first with overnight frosts. A few wintry showers mainly affecting northern and eastern coastal areas. A change to unsettled conditions before the week-end as cloud and rain extends north and east to reach all parts of the UK. Ahead of the rain on Wednesday and Thursday, it is likely to remain cold enough for some local snowfalls at low levels from the Midlands northwards. Although the greatest risk of significant snow being on northern hills before it slower turns milder. The milder and unsettled conditions with significant rain at times continuing after the week-end with the potential of quite a wet and windy spell of weather towards the middle of the month.
Updated: 1133 on Thu 1 Feb 2007
From http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html
I like this, they say ''it will be cold enough for some local snowfalls at low levels''! http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif
Although they say it will turn milder thats no where near set in stone so the early signs are good! -
Just had a hail shower with a few good flashes of lightning.
but away from here youd have to fancy central southern/eastern scotland/midlands/high ground in eastern wales as being at high risk.
Although they say it will turn milder thats no where near set in stone so the early signs are good!
GFS 06z charts discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Same ere fella, theres no way things will go smoothly from now untill thursday, just cant see it...
Its just about getting through each day without any major downgrades and getting the ECMWF on board now...