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Harsh Climate

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    12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    For yorkshire/north midlands/southern scotland this is looking like a belter! dont know why you dont like it PP, in these situations durham ussually get hammered!

    Advice: Dont spend your life analysing weather charts, its a waaste of time. Whatever happens will happen whether you know or not, and chances are the charts are wrong and you get excited about nothing. And besides, snow is a lot better when it is a suprise, rather thn you thinking it is going to snow days before hand. Also it is a lot worse thinking something is going to happen, and looking forward to it, and it not happening.

    IT AINT GONNA SNOW

    Why you here then?

    Go back to knitting a jumper or whatever you like doing... :)

    06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jed Bickerdike

    Hmm.. theres a lot of of disagreement in the models at the moment....

    Its the GFS,NOGAPS,JMA V ECMWF,UKMO,GEM,FAX CHARTS

    POOR:

    GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

    NOGAPS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1202.gif

    JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1442.gif

    GOOD:

    ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

    UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

    GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1202.gif

    USAF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/semb120.gif

    Looking at the variation in model output has cheered me up some what! :) There are some very big players (exluding GEM) in our favour at the moment, so it aint all over yet! But the GFS and JMA have performmed quite well recently and we do need to see the GFS get back on board as quickly as possible. I feel that this evenings output will be vital in whether or not we get a quick breakdown or not... :)

    If the ecmwf and ukmo follow in the footsteps of the last few gfs runs the chances of a quick breakdown to mild/wet weather will be about 90%+, but if the we get a good 12z run from the gfs and continued support from the ECMWF/UKMO models I think we could be in for a very eventfull weeks weather! :)

    Edit: I think the key revolves around whether or not we get a low pressure moveing near southern areas at around 78h, dragging in a feed of air from the east behind it.. And prolonging the straight southwesterlies from taking over. :)

    06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A little bit disingenuious, I feel, and certainly a bit unfair.

    A cold/mild battle happens whenever there is a frontal boundary I think that the likelihood for snow happening this week is what is in the balance. Even if that's not what has been said, that is certainly what is meant.

    Incidentally, snow shower forecasts (those being caused by convective activity alone from an unstable surface boundary) are always well forecast by the models, and their human counterparts. That is, of course, their existence: the problem in those situations is the distribution of such showers leading to the 'Will it snow in?' Which has it's summer counter-part: 'Will I see lightning in?'

    Snow caused by frontal systems is always going to be marginal because a front marks the difference between cold and warm air masses so you are always going to have warm(er) air around. These setups are notoriously hard to to predict; and, as I understand it, there is no notion of numerical certainty that can supply a method to produce a good forecast in marginal situations. I read, somewhere, that the existence of showers is forecast with an accuracy of 75%, and frontal snow, currently stands at 20%.

    It may indeed be a case of watch the big picture, let the cold air come in, and see what happens on the day.

    In fact, I'm almost certain of it.

    A nicely put post there :lol:

    I agree with many things you say there, but the major concern is that once the progged frontal systems push through, the floodgates for mild south westerlies get smashed open! (according to latest gfs/esembles that have performed pretty well this winter..) I feel that the battle might be won before it even happens! (i.e no battle at all means the iresistable force has won every time ;) )

    06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    ''but as it stands all this worrying over one run is almost laughable''

    Im not baseing it on one run, its the progression from the last few runs that is most worrieng (GFS)...

    Also, the Ecmwf has performed poorly this winter and is generally all over the shop (so dont take any heart from that) but as you say, the UKMO is very promising so theres still hope yet.. :lol:

    06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.png

    I think it all goes wrong here when the little channel low/low doesnt develope, this was the cause of the winds turning easterly and maintaining the cold..

    Although it would be ignorant to ignore the recent output, there is still allways the chance of the unexpected.

    We really need to see a good GFS12z (that redevelopes that small low) and a good ukmo, then things should be back on track.....

    06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Lets rememeber, when the bbc country file forecast came out, every model was fantastic baring the ECMWF.. Since then there has been a considerable change in the GFS, just look at the progression from awesome to poor in the last few runs. Plus the esembles are pretty conclusive... If the gfs 12z is similar to this, expect the ukmo to follow suit, then it is game over! Come on people, youve got to be concerned when things go bad at 74+(very short time scale on gfs.)

    12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jed Bickerdike

    Wonderful 12Z with the chance of a channel low but im not going to concentrate on that but something else which IMO could bring much larger snowfall totals!.

    Anyone living in NE Scotland must be ecstatic with this run because you would see huge snowfall totals from the charts below.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

    These charts would develop plenty of snow showers moving in from the N sea which would spread far inland. If I was wishing to go snow chasing Aberdeenshire would be my choice :D

    Thatb is great to see for any one down the eastern side of England, at this range, that blob of blue could be anywhere in these areas, just depends whats in the north sea/how it developes at that time...(if a similar set-up developes ;) ) :D:clap:

    12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jed Bickerdike

    By the way I meant to say: if this JMA chart came off the hills and mountains in Ireland would probably be under many feet:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1204.gif

    15-20cm per hour snowfall!

    Looks too marginal for low ground though.

    lol yeti, I doubt there would be 6-8" of snowfall an hour. There would have to be severe thunderstorms mixed in or for that to happen :wallbash:

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