[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

No strong Iberian heights on this run!

Anyone seen UKMO 12z? I can only see 6z

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81

Unless you have a crystal ball you do not know that, it could just as easily head south bringing Northern England a pasting! A good 48 hours before this is even close to settled.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

What went horribly wrong lol? 

The charts aren't much different today than they were yesterday, we are still seeing different possible outcomes come into play.

Nothing will be even close to being resolved until we see where Wed/Thu low goes next week!

I don't get why people are so up and down looking for specifics over 7 days away, take a step back and look at the big picture. The signals are good and we have a possible snow event Thursday, with that snow potentially affecting further south Friday.

Usual doom merchants come out first sniff of less favourable output or 1 bad run with not even a look at it's essembles..

Again steady as she goes.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 CoventryWeather

The infamous Iberian high is migrating way south from next week, if this goes belly up it's nothing to do with the Iberian high..

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

Gfs 6z Op doesn't mean anything until we see essembles, worthless in its own right good or bad.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex

I still think it's too early to be coming to a conclusion in that regard. If Ecm and Ukmo are still the same this time tomorrow maybe so, not now though.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex

Far two early to right off 'chase 1' mate, still a big chance of a dumping somewhere in UK on Thursday! Also if thar place is Northern England or further south, that would also gives chance of back edge snow even further south as it clears late thursday/ Friday. With also the chance of snow showers coming in from a resulting NE flow on wrap around (although may be short lived.)

A long way from being resolved, round 1 chance of Heavy snow.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Was excited when saw GFS but Ecm and Ukmo saying no to Thursdays snow storm. Few more runs needed in that respect, netherless looks good for beyond 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977

Someone's going to hit jackpot here, can't see it heading as far south as France or as far north as Shetland.

If this run verified I wouldn't even be bothered what comes after Thursday.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow

You watch by this time tomorrow it Will be southern England getting the heavy snow, those southward corrections!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow

I think we are going to see a dumping for Northern England Thursday on GFS 18z.

System looks good 100 miles further south atleast.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

 Harsh Climate Got to politely disagree - a brief 3-day dip below average (IMBY) and then a split. Goes back to what I was saying before in that we've been so starved of winter weather this last decade that we think mediocre output/actual conditions is/are now good

That March spell last year was a classic case in point. 3 days of slush and wet snow is now considered good. I'm not invested in winter weather any more but, even though I'm not, I still find that a little bit sad and depressing

Fair enough we all have our own perceptions of what is good. If good is seeing those beautiful charts that get people excited, so be it, but these nirvana charts often lead to disappointment 7+ days out.

All I am looking for at this range is trends, certain things being put in place and decent/good output progressively been brought forward closer to T0. 

*The fact that northern parts of UK are at risk of a snow dumping thursday to me is good (perhaps not for those in the south)

*There may be snow on it's back edge late Thursday/ Friday or snow showers being pulled in behind from the NE for a short time.

*Azores high goes way south, pressure rises/wedges keen to build in our part of the Northern Hemisphere

* -5 850 uppers quite widely, (colder in places) in a blocked set up with no Atlantic onslaught likely.

 

All this at the T132 ~ T 240 Range, being realistic what more can we ask for?? Anything past this period in such a messy set-up with little model agreement regarding large scale feature specifics surely have to be pure Jackanory surely??

Like I say steady as she goes, but ovcoarse people can view the output how they please, all input is welcome and adds to healthy discussion.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 LRD

That is a cracking set of assembles, only after the 12/02 does it show a possible temperature rise, way into FI.

[Model banter and emotions]

 blizzard81

It was mostly Leeds, Bradford, Harrogate, Halifax, Garforth, around that area. 

Unfortunately, you will have just been a little too far south and missed most of the action! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 AO-

I'm not looking at that chart as exactly what is shown in fine detail though. I'm looking at it vaguely and picking a few important details out like it will be locked in cold (for a bit), the Azores high has migrated way south and hints of a continental feed into the south.. 

Obviously though if that chart verified 100% it would be pretty poor in terms of snow chances, but you know what it will be much different this time tomorrow. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 blizzard81

Mate it was a setup like this 3 years ago that brought three 6-10'' falls snow over northern England over space of 4/5 weeks, Like what we are seeing the synoptics were nothing special, but with low pressures bumping up against -4/-5 850 upper air, that is all that was needed!

People need to get out there head, big Greenland highs and strong NE to Easterlies bringing -15 850s nationwide, it just doesn't happen apart from once every 10 years or so! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Ecm looks decent to me :

*locked in cold

*hint of an easterly to the far south

*Azores high no where to be seen

Not bad at all!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 northwestsnow  Remember these things have a tendency to end up further South come T0 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 That ECM

To be fair the UKMO only goes as far as next Thursday, might just be delaying the cold by a day or 2 over other models??

Today's output so far, although not stellar, steady as she goes! Nice that we still have potential heavy snow on the table for Thursday!  (I Know it doesn't look likely on the latest UKMO but look where that 0 dam 850 line is, just north of that will be heavy snow!)

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

12z Gfs is a great run simply because it keeps the theme of low pressure bringing Heavy snow on it's northern side to somewhere in UK Thursday!

If it verified bang on as shown would be highly disappointing for me, wet snow turning to sleet, then rain. Thankfully we are nowhere near the timeframe of nailing it's exact position so nothing to worry about in that respect..

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole

I think It does look likely now that there will be a low pressure bringing in colder air behind it mid ~ late next week, could have snow on it's northern edge, perhaps an epic amount for some. Whether we see this snowfall or not from the initial arrival of the low pressure remains to be seen. There may even be some back edge snow or increasingly wintry showers/snow being dragged in from the right flank as it clears.

After that it does look like we get a reasonably cold North to NE flow, but with such low 500s you would expect showers to be of snow down to quite low levels, especially where there is intensity. I Just hope like the last spell this potential NE flow doesn't just become a straight northerly leaving most of us bone dry. That would be my biggest concern even at this range.. I expect this initial cold plunge to last a couple of days before synoptic change/ low pressure spawns or tries to come in from the Atlantic. Like you say there is only a flimsy block, surely this is what will happen?

I have a sneaky feeling looking at how far the Azores high has been flung South and that any resulting zonality, low pressure train will have a NW ~ SE tilt on it, then bringing the risk of sliders and more snowfall with pretty decent -uppers never far away. And as you say with favorable background signals, we might have many routes to cold/snow, so High pressure/ wedges could spawn up in favorable positions offering reloads or something better.

I'm feeling confident about this and think snow chances could pop up just about anywhere late next week after the initial pattern change.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

One thing does look certain though, it is going to get colder from the North later next week

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

So looking at the big 3 for Thursday's snowstorm that may not even happen at all lol :

GFS ~ Heavy Snow for Central UK

UKMO ~ Heavy snow for Southern Areas

ECM ~ Snow for Shetland..

There you go, this is why any Ramps should be on the back burner for now. Very encouraging developments today (Snow chances edging closer to the reliable timeframe), but still a long way to go for any specifics.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 sheikhy

I'm sorry but that is just plain old rain for you .

No, with the general southward corrections, we have seen of lows over the last few cold spells, somewhere in the south could be in the sweetspot (should it happen.) Just hopefully not France! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

For me today's great output is no surprise, For the last 5 days or so we have seen great charts move closer by 24 hours each day, from 240 hours all the way down to <162h. Like clock work, can't believe some of the panic over the last couple of days!