Harsh Climate

January 7

Just bought a new weather station.

An hour in from setting it up, it's showing 5.7C and barely falling anymore when local obs are showing 4C. Am I being too impatient in setting it up?

The sensor is in one of those weather sensor cases. It's a Youshiko.

January 7

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

A very downbeat mood on here this morning. FWIW I thought the GFS and UKMO were good in the reliable, the GEM was excellent and the ECM was at least better than yesterday's. No doubt, the downgrades of the means is a concern, but they can really flip at the drop of a hat, either way!

Hopefully, the 12z change the momentum, but remember that FI is around 120 so whatever is shown outside of that, good or bad, is very much just for fun.

Eyes down for an improved 6z.

Yeah not sure why the downbeat mood, everything still looking very good.

GFS AVG 240H

ECM 240H

UKMO 168H

GEM 240H

JMA 240H

All very good at 240h, which is already way out the reliable timeframe, forget what some are showing after. Yes these charts aren't the 10/10 FI charts we been spoilt with over the last few days but they are still very good.

Forme we have had the expected model wobble, we have had the wobble with the overly good charts a couple of days ago, now we are seeing kind of the other end of the spectrum. Still very good and packed with snow potential in my opinion.

Once we get the cold in, it should be very stubborn to move! The models usually nearly always overplay any return to a more mild/mobile set-up, with the current northern hemisphere profile and background driver signals at worst I see a battleground scenario setting up next week with milder air to the southwest (with rain/sleet) and colder air to the more NE (with snow showers). Perhaps heavy snow where the boundaries meet.

Again, a lot of water to go under the bridge, no alarm bells ringing for me just yet, far from it.

January 6

Just now, TSNWK said:

So it's ecm v gfs / gefs / ukm and icon..at day 7

Where's our money?

I think the ECM 12z will be way out of kilter with its own assembles never mind all the other models!

January 6

216h

I don't believe it at all, I think something earlier in the run has caused the ECM to stop the cold plunge from the North Sunday night. For me that is set in stone from looking at all the output, I'm not that worried by this rogue ECM run.

January 6

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s going to be an epic run - followed by some more bullish tweets from the professionals I hope

I'm not that keen on it, not sure the cold is going to make it all the way down to the south. hope 216 proves me wrong

January 6

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but EC det and clusters tonight are really really important..

I think the models have had their little wobble, I am expecting upgrades

January 6

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Really mate

Felt really like winter today, quite nippy and that was only under -4 850s

January 6

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

Control looking ok

Could really do with the opening Northerly next Sunday coming in from a more NE direction off the sea, for snow showers inland. Looking highly likely to be a straight Northerly though.

January 6

Anyone else thinking that Denmark are having a 1963 esque winter lol, GFS 0-384h just locked into cold and snowfall potential!

January 6

1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

To be fair those are 2m temperatures, which probably don't take sufficient account of geography. Stations in frost hollows or in the presence of snow cover will probably be quite a lot colder.

I think with all the moisture in the ground, there would be some pretty bad freezing fog about, wouldn't be supprised with some places no higher than -2c during the day.

January 6

GFS 288h

Looks like the cold 500s are just being tipped from the NE over the UK. Increasingly unstable, would expect disturbances to break out.

January 6

GFS 270h

Lovely looking chart.

January 5

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Some people need to give their head a wobble. Deep cold is just walking up the drive on the ECM. No need to panic because it hasn't knocked on the door.

It's all looking toned down today on the charts, yesterday the cold runs where on steroids! Only one way it was going to go from there, and that's the more realistic watered down cold charts. To be fair they could go Excellent again and I would prefer that closer to the time than 10 days away lol.

January 5

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Significant snow, risk colder air coming south weather systems coming up from the south-west battleground snow events.

Yeah spot on.

January 5

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets wait for eps, if they start downgrading then it is time to worry, if they hold firm then we're still in with a good shout, must admit i was hoping to start firming up on something by now though, rather than just being in contention.

I think rather than 70-30% in favour of deep cold/snow 14th Jan + (yesterday) I think we are now 55% - 45% still in favour of Deep cold/snow from 14th Jan +.

That's just my personal oppinion so don't shoot me.

The models struggle with these set-ups and for me this is looking a very unusual set-up with the Atlantic eventually looking dead.

January 5

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm not very good at all Greenland heights in danger maybe gfs on to something.

Na, these border line situations is where all the snow comes from, Central Northern England do very well from these set ups! . Not so much the south unless its channel low territory.

January 5

168h pretty nice

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Crazy 168, NH is in bits - I just can’t decipher what happens next - anyone??

The deep cold is coming into Europe, just hope as far west as us.

January 5

Good ECM 120

Can't see anything wrong with it

January 4

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

I agree mate. The problem is after many years generally the output post 10 days mixes out. Its like going fishing with all the expensive tackle and equipment. You sit there for hours then some kid walks past with just a rod and lands the big fish.im optimistic but wary pal

Y.

If all these great charts for the 12th Jan + are still here Sunday Afternoon I will then go full ramp! . Especially as I will have have had a few beers! .

January 4

24 minutes ago, Niall K said:

I don’t mean to dampen the mood but the epic charts being shown are well beyond the reliable. Cross model agreement and buy in from Exeter is noteworthy but severity and longevity of any cold spell can be watered down over the next 10 days or so. Here’s hoping it isnt but no harm maybe just tempering those expectations for a few more days if possible until we get into the semi-reliable!!!!

Exactly mate.

To be honest I think there's a chance this upcoming cold spell could be the start of another one of 'those great winters'. Or if it does breakdown quicker than first thought I still think the back end of this winter will be colder/snowier than average!

But that doesnt mean, Im going to look at charts 10+ days away and go on an all out ramp over them! As if it's 100% certain.

I've seen an almost certain NE with direct hit of -15 upper 850s with strong winds and dark blues at range of T96 hours on most models to vanish the next morning to a near miss (high pressure further SE) with low country's and Channel getting battered with blizzards whilst we got nothing!

It was at that moment I truly learnt nothing is certain! I hope others don't have to experience this anytime soon! Think the year this happened was 2003.

January 4

2 minutes ago, Icebox said:

Never... the first and golden rule.

I've been telling people at work since the 23rd!

January 4

17 minutes ago, Ramp said:

The charts are lovely but keep calm people there’s water left to go under the bridge.

Shhh don't say that too loud in here, you will get shot down with words of reason like that .

Exactly. Who isn't enjoying these lovely charts, we can dream. But the wise old heads in here have been around long enough to know it isn't cut and dry until atleast a few days away.

January 4

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's like children in a candy shop who've been told by the owner they can help themselves to as many sweets as they want in here.

Sugar rush over day 10+ charts showing deep cold and snow.

Maybe after watching and discussing the models for 20+ years I've got a bit weary of the excitement of cold and snowy nirvana past day 7.

I'll join in when it's still showing below 7 days.

Wise words, funny how many people are on full ramp charts 10+ days away .

Even though everything is saying deep cold and blocking, there is still the potential for a spanner in the works nearer the time (West based NAO) (some places being completely dry while a few lucky places get clobbered by snow streamers..) like you I'm holding back any real excitement for a few days yet.

Could you imagine if that 5/10% chance of it going the way of the pear happened, think there would be a few upset people on here.

Still though, can't ask for better charts than what we are seeing.

January 4

Don't think I've ever seen a GFS average as good at 240h ever!

January 3

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I really don’t understand the fascination with bone dry, cold, Sunny Easterlies. Some might get the odd shower under this set up surely you need lower heights.

Priming the ground, so when it falls it settles! Hopefully 2 weeks of cold should be enough before the good stuff hopefully comes

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