Harsh Climate

January 3

18 minutes ago, Notty said:

My guess is the GFS will show -8 uppers and snow streamers into Kent by Monday morning

No chance mate, at best the odd light flurry

January 3

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Personally I don't understand why so much weight is being put on mid January.We can't get the next 5 days into 50% confidence so my confidence on this is very very low.

I think the next 5 days is pretty clear anyway now, a brief easterly in Eastern areas more especially South East with perhaps a few wintry showers.

Then becoming more settled next 5 days with high pressure over us or slightly to NW. That's way I see it.

January 3

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Personally I don't understand why so much weight is being put on mid January.We can't get the next 5 days into 50% confidence so my confidence on this is very very low.

The background signals/ telleconections, essembles, most models plus met office who have access to £100,000,000 odd super computer all point to this Kasim. It is more than likely to happen now even at such range.

January 3

FI I know but loving this chart, would be lots of shortwave, troughs/disturbances bringing snow chances out of nowhere day on day. Especially good for Northern England these setups imby I know.

January 3

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Gefs mean at day 10..a hint of the coldest air staying east of the uk!

It's not until atleast 13th/14th where this cold pool is expected to move down into Europe. Obviously FI but more likely than not now

January 2

From viewing the 00z-12z runs yesterday it became clear that things were looking good for prolonged cold/snow potential, with mid month onwards looking most interesting!

Yeah we had a little potential for a transient easterly 6-8th whatever it was but never was it more than a 10/20% chance of it being a snowmaker at any level..

Now today, it is steady as she goes, maybe the the chance of something much colder mid month has even increased a little. The gfs 12z essembles are atleast the best set yet.

January 2

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

The first easterly was never really going to offer anything.. At best ECM showed a short period of -10 uppers in the East more especially South East, which would have produced a bit of snow that would have melted low ground on most surfaces.

No downgrades at all, everything is going perfectly so far for a good long cold spell with perhaps a PV split/ Greenland high and a much colder injection of air from around 13th Jan.

January 1

45 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thanks.. so -10 uppers will do it.. I prefer a little more to mitigate the modified sea air... but inland with dry air this time of year helps

I have known easterlies with -10 uppers provide nothing more than a slush fest before.

The problem we have is that the soil/ground is as bout as saturated/warm as it possibly can be. We really need a good week of low minima and hard frosts preceeding any good snow accumulation.

If the weather was to play out exactly as the Ecm shows I would have doubts about snow settling on low ground giving solid accumulations, I would expect some melting in between precipitation or even during it until the ground is cold and firm enough to allow it. Some slushy coverings possible, more so on certain surfaces.

All hot air though to be fair not even worth worrying about just yet.

Still think we will get the slow burner rather than the pot of gold at first attempt!

Unless Ecm gains greater traction overnight (it may do) I would expect no more than a few flurries in East, more especially in Southeast and Kent where more organised mix sleet/snow possible 7/8th before perhaps more substantial cold/blocking within a week after.

All jackanory at the moment, just my take on proceedings.

January 1

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

Just to be grounded, there is a chance this is on the cold side of the ENS, but great to see nonetheless

Wise words, Ecm is lovely to see but in it's own right I wouldn't be running to by a sledge just yet.

Can't ask for much more though, from that particular run.

January 1

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON

132

Yeah looking great so far, I feel positive for some great 12z output this afternoon, here's hoping

January 1

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

They are indeed some very good charts in the above. It's kind of what we need though to get a proper cold spell...

Hopefully, a few more of these start to pop up in future runs and cluster in assembles. But I'm expecting a slower more watered down route to cold rather than these holy grail charts.

January 1

Some beauties still been shown in gfs assembles, here's my favourite

January 1

Well well, woke up and saw the GFS OP and thought here we go again is the GFS onto something and our upcoming cold spell is already in the bin?

After checking the assembles we clearly go cold for a couple days around the 6th Jan, 50% go back milder and 50% colder so for me on that run the chances of cold and favourable blocking are at around 50%.

.

So after seeing the GFS I viewed the UKMO,ECM with bated breath and what a pleasant surprise!

ECM, good solid block only going colder from there, with another injection of cold about to push down from Svalbard. Haven't seen where it sits in it's essembles but probably a half way house if I was to speculate.

.

UKMO similar to ECM at 168h, very good!

.

Just for fun, had a look at JMA and GEM: The pick of the bunch but I don't put too much credence in them, just like to view them because when they are showing good, they really are good! ; )

.

So just from viewing the charts an excellent start to proceedings, looks like all models are in favour of prolonged cold v GFS at 50/50 for prolonged cold. I expect GFS to come on board fully later, just too much weight against the milder long term option.

To add further fuel to the fire, we are feeling the effects of the Canadian warming in the stratosphere downstream now, we are about to have a bit of a strat warming at certain layers and just looking at the 300hpa strat forecast we have a decent warming eventually leading to a partially split PV, coming into the key phase of an EL Nino winter with all factors at play I only expect a cold/blocked end to January and then hopefully end of winter! Obviously, there will be the odd milder interlude.

This partial split was only really showing at the back end of runs, now it is apparent after only 7 days, big upgrade there.

So for me let's get the groundwork done first, good blocking high early/mid January with hard frosts and low day/night minima, thus lowering soil temperatures/hardening the ground, then when the good stuff comes later on, the ground should be primed for settling snow that doesn't melt from below even though the temperature is 0.1C

Going to be a slow burner by all means, so my advice don't put too much time/concern into an individual chart/run look at the bigger picture and all data at our disposal collectively. The charts will wobble all over the place before coming to any conclusions! I just don't think models handle blocking and classic winter setups as well as they do mild and mobile Atlantic driven weather.

December 31, 2023

7 minutes ago, Don said:

It's an incredibly frustrating hobby already during the winter months!! Moving forward, an SSW could well be the answer for sustained cold, which I think has been alluded to for some time now?

I think let's get a nice blocking high like the ecm, plenty of frosts and low minima to lower the ground temps, then when El nino winter kicks in we should be fully primed!

A lot of people in here with no patience, let's just get the ground work in first and enjoy the ride, rather than wanting all the honey straight away!

December 31, 2023

Just now, MJB said:

We should get some sharp frosts from that Luke and will look very wintry I'd say.

Hoar frosts will be on show..............hopefully

Would harden the ground and lower soil temperatures a bit, which would do no harm for the future!

Especially if we get second attempt at retrogression mid month.

December 31, 2023

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

Could've been worse

That chart is the perfect definition of a 'slow burner'

December 31, 2023

19 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I'm happy that you liked where you grew up, can't say the same for round here. Always been a horrible place in many ways and I can't wait to escape I should probably add I'm not strictly originally from Kent, I'm originally from Ilford in East London and moved here when I was 8.

I suspect I'm a bit further south than you were as I'm in the Medway valley and we often get shafted. We got nothing apart from a very light dusting in around January 2015 I want to say, from March 2013 to BFTE. After BFTE it took until February 2021, and then of course last December. Assuming no other cold spell comes up this year, I suspect it'll be some time until we have significant snow again here. I would say "if ever", but of course the chances are we will have it again at some point.

December 2009, January 2010 and December 2010 are some of my best memories. February 2012 and the various shenanigans of 2012/13 as well. I wish we could have winters like that as a default. Oh well

I'm glad my preachy pretentiousness wasn't offensive. I know I can come across as very rigid, condescending and extraordinarily preachy sometimes, that's not my intention and I'm just a very scientifically-oriented person who gets frustrated easily.

As I said, the Gulf Stream isn't the same thing as AMOC. The Gulf Stream is a separate current that won't collapse as it is caused by the rotation of the Earth and so it's a physical phenomenon. Popular media often treats them as the same thing, leading to a lot of confusion with the public.

AMOC can certainly be weakened or collapse, and we know out of it's roughly 2.5 million year history it has strenghened, weakened and collapsed many times. The difference is, this is something that happens on the scale of thousands of years and we still don't know all that much about it and exactly what causes it to weaken or collapse, or when it might happen. Many, many people have researched this and overall, it would appear that such a collapse is unlikely to happen in this century.

My solution to the AMOC problem is that until the science on it is more settled, we shoudn't really bother to talk about it in regards to the shorter term, as in all likelihood is it not a looming threat and there are several other teleconnections and phenomena that will be disturbed long before AMOC is likely to be.

Note that I use the word "likely" a lot here as there are very few, if any certainties in changing fields of science.

Yes, they undoubtedly will and we will continue to have more and more December 2023s, February 2019s, January 2014s and December 2015s as time goes on, and less and less December 2010s. In 50 years time (2073), a December 2015-like winter month is highly likely to be the norm, if not outright cooler than average. February 2019 would also be relatively normal and many winters will see temperatures in excess of 20C at least once, although probably not quite all. December 2073 will likely have an average daily maximum somewhere in the range of 11-13C and daily minimum 7-8C, with a maximum of perhaps 16-18C. January and February will be very similar, with January 2074 having slightly lower on all stats and February 2074 having a slightly higher average daily maximum, slightly lower daily minimum and a somewhat higher maximum, probably 18-20C.

What should be kept in mind is we will always have cooler than average months, and we will always have cold winter months. Even as far south as Morocco and Algeria can occasionally have overnight snow. Parts of the Levant have had outright snowstorms even at lower altitude on occasion. One cold winter month or significant cold snap like December 2010 does not mean the climate isn't warming. The important part is the trend in the long-term data, and average temperatures have increased by over one degree C since 1961-1990, in some locations close to 2C in certain months. The increasing wetness in high autumn, and the drying of September, is also a big indicator of a warming climate.

Those arguments are wrong, as you already seem to suspect I won't go into the full dossier here as it's frankly far too much info to put in a single post, but both mid- and long-term climate data, atmospheric proxies and palaeological proxies all support climate change. The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1800 is also a very near 1:1 match with rising temperatures. The most damning thing is probably stratospheric temperatures. In the same timeframe, the stratosphere has cooled at the same rate as the troposphere and the surface has warmed. Were the warming caused by an outside factor like the Sun, the stratosphere would warm, not cool. The cooling of the stratosphere means heat is being reflected away from it, suggesting something in the lower atmosphere is trapping more heat from the Sun. You cannot have a cooling stratosphere with anything other than greenhouse gas-caused warming, and humans are the only source of rising carbon dioxide and methane levels in recent history

Hopefully this second pretentious, self-indulgent post clears those things up

I think I could learn a lot from you Where you been hiding lol.

''Yes, they undoubtedly will and we will continue to have more and more December 2023s, February 2019s, January 2014s and December 2015s as time goes on, and less and less December 2010s. In 50 years time (2073), a December 2015-like winter month is highly likely to be the norm, if not outright cooler than average. February 2019 would also be relatively normal and many winters will see temperatures in excess of 20C at least once, although probably not quite all. December 2073 will likely have an average daily maximum somewhere in the range of 11-13C and daily minimum 7-8C, with a maximum of perhaps 16-18C. January and February will be very similar, with January 2074 having slightly lower on all stats and February 2074 having a slightly higher average daily maximum, slightly lower daily minimum and a somewhat higher maximum, probably 18-20C.''

I'm going to save these dates and temperature predictions you make, be interesting to see if you are correct, provided I'm still alive!

''My solution to the AMOC problem is that until the science on it is more settled, we shoudn't really bother to talk about it in regards to the shorter term, as in all likelihood is it not a looming threat and there are several other teleconnections and phenomena that will be disturbed long before AMOC is likely to be.''

I will take your word on it then, just that I watched a Discovery Channel program on this subject a few years ago that got me a little excited, like you say many other teleconnections/ phenomena with much more credence than something we know very little about.

December 31, 2023

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

OMG

You actually think the GFS might be right over the MET 11 days away.

I can’t read this thread anymore.

To be fair met office could change their long range forecast 3pm tomorrow to something less favourable. Also just like anyone else or any model they can also be wrong.

Don't see how that difference in opinion is a reason to not read the thread anymore. Anyways happy new year!

December 31, 2023

I would bet my bottom dollar that the ECM is closer to the GFS than UKMO, the ship has firmly sailed for any deep cold before January 14th/15th.

As per met office long range forecast maybe we can get into some colder than average air late next week, then cling onto it before something more substantial takes place mid January onwards.

December 31, 2023

6 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Fair enough, these battleground fronts will also happen more often due to climate change via more intense weather patterns.

I do apologise, I can't put this any more politely, but this is a diabolical understanding of the topic.

The Gulf Stream and AMOC are two completely different things. The Gulf Stream is a permanent northwesterly current caused by the rotation of the Earth and will not collapse. AMOC is the thermohaline component that may collapse due to climate change.

The effects of an AMOC shutdown are completely misreported in common media. The actual cooling would be limited to high latitude and England would, after some decades, see a cooling of less than a degree. The much more significant impact is the aridifying of the European climate due to the loss of a warm Atlantic to deliver frequent cyclones to Europe's shores. The aridification that the UK's climate would experience would seriously threaten agriculture in this country. It may not seem like it but our agriculture relies on the frequent rainfall we receive and a significant reduction in precipitation (>20%) would be a disaster.

Moreover, as with Subpolar Gyre slowdown or collapse, which may actually be happening, a collapse of AMOC would likely cause an expansion of the Hadley cell, which would lead to a drier, hotter summer. See how many dry, hot summers in this country occured with a cool Atlantic. The Jet Stream would also be weakened and move northward, as may be occuring with the Subpolar Gyre slowdown, contributing to the omega blocking.

Lastly, the original research into this topic was done with palaeoclimate proxies from Younger Dryas, a time with a cooler climate than today and when significant ice sheets still existed over Europe. Considering the likely warming that will have occurred by the time AMOC is likely to collapse (if it does, more on that later), on top of how much warmer the climate already is vs that period, the effects of an AMOC interruption or shutdown in Younger Dryas are really not comparable to today.

As for the Danish "believing in" an AMOC collapse, this is a really bad understanding of the scientific method, but I won't go into a self-indulgent exploration of that as this post is already long and pretentious enough. That research team's model is just one model, and the general consensus is that an AMOC collapse is very unlikely in this century. The actual risk of an AMOC collapse is based upon older research that suggested it was weakening, but later research has been... less optimistic in how much its actually weakening by. Some has even suggested its not appreciably weakening at all, which would in turn suggest an AMOC collapse may not happen at all.

In summation, an AMOC collapse is most likely an overstated fear, and is far from settled science. Most importantly, it's currently very unlikely that any of us here will see a significant slowdown or collapse in our lifetimes. The much more pertinent teleconnective disruption at the moment is the Subpolar Gyre, one component of AMOC, and the slowdown or shutdown of that will likely do nothing but milden our winters and heat and dry our summers.

However, science is constantly evolving, and of course climate change is now happening very fast and the situation is changing almost day by day, so in 10 years the situation with AMOC may be significantly different, however we can't know either way. As touched upon, by the time an AMOC collapse would actually be likely to happen, probably after this century, with the trajectory we're on, the globe will have warmed by so much that any potential cooling that an AMOC collapse would provide will have been cancelled out a long, long time ago and instead it will just contribute to heating our already very hot compared to now summers even further.

Mate thanks for taking the time to explain your point, absolutely no offence taken.

Ok I see where your coming from, the collapse of the Gulf Stream probably is a big Myth, I believe it can be weakened like in mini ice ages but again my level of knowledge on this is next to zero.

So am I right in thinking that you reckon our winters will get much milder than average over the next 10-50 years? There are arguments that global warming is a myth two but I reckon you have facts to disprove that so don't want to open a can of worms .

December 31, 2023

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

For a good easterly we need agreement right through. I'm 70/30 in favour of the GFS/ICON. That is probabilistic approach leaving all options possible.

To be fair you are probably right about the first blocking high days 7-9 it does look like it will now sink, to what degree we don't know.

Even as good as the UKMO looks at 144h there's no saying that won't sink either?? And we are yet to see the ECM 00z. For me the key will be the next blocking high days 13-15!

December 31, 2023

Just now, LRD said:

GFS is going to be very disappointing. High is sinking. Energy going over the top of the UK High. Doesn't mean it's right though

Should be ok later on, getting anything from the first Block is looking very negligible now, it's what kind of block develops around 300h will be the deal breaker.

December 31, 2023

Don't think I've ever seen the GFS Operational runs so consistent and like for like at 186h, almost identical to 6z

December 31, 2023

4 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

West Yorkshire is quite upland and high latitude so an increase in moisture content will translate to more snowfall a la central Canada. This is why continental climates keep seeing record blizzards, snowfalls etc. without ever challenging the historical record low temperatures.

Lower down and especially further south winters have become noticeably milder, wetter and duller over time. The stats back this up.

This is why temperature is a far more important measure than snowfall in determining the extent of warming. In areas where however many °C of warming has occured, this is not enough to deter snowfall then the higher moisture content is going to translate to more snowfall.

They very much couldn't. The Atlantic is quite clearly warming year-on-year. This warming trend in the Altantic may also be encouraging cyclogenesis and the humidifying and mildening of our winters on top of the raw increase in moisture content.

If you're referring to AMOC collapse, that was already discussed a few pages ago and the archetypal glacial period scenario is hugely a glossover and very inaccurate for a number of reasons.

Obviously, the 75-100m altitude will have helped the snow settle but is still very much classed as low ground.

The reason we got the deep snow was because we was right on the boundary between cold air to the north and mild air to the south, we hit the sweet spot of precipitation, on the northern edge with uppers around -4/5. Had the system been 50 miles further south then the snowfall would have been 50 miles further south, obviously at the same altitude 75-100m+ I do remember a couple of these events (6"+) being right down as low as about 30/40m.

The theory of the Gulf Stream slowing or shutting down hasn't been completely discredited the Danish still believe in it:

'' While older climate models say it's “very unlikely” the AMOC will come to a standstill this century, recent Danish research puts the tipping point at around 2050, with a tiny possibility of this happening by 2025.''

December 31, 2023

9 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Over here in the Thames Valley I haven’t seen over an inch of snowfall since January 2013.

Wish I could move North but wife won’t let me .

I Knew the Southeast has missed out over recent years but didn't realise It had been that bad.

We have been very lucky with battleground snow events, obviously 50 mile or so south of here will have had rain/sleet.

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