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Harsh Climate

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As good as some of the models are this afternoon, caution is still needed. If it is  to go pete tonge this in my opinion is how it will go wrong:

    GFSP08EU12_258_2.thumb.png.ce476ba0676fc999d8a0e0214850c007.png

    Seen it time and and time again, when we are led down the garden path nearing -15 850hpa north easterlies at 120h, only to wake up the next morning to a chart like that 😭 lol.

    This type of scenario is certainly a possibility as deep cold this far out is never a certainty, so a level head would be advised at this stage and not be blinkered by the eye candy out in FI!

    But as things stand I think things are 70/30 in our favour, some good upgrades this afternoon so fingers crossed.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    5 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

    Just got in and checked the GEFS. Some absolute belters in there! Cold of sorts is firming up.

    Think the mean for at least northern England northwards should be lower than -5 850hpa from the 9TH JAN which is where we need to be! And a few perps between -10/15 Not like the rubbish 6z essembles. Heading in the right direction! 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Terrible? The pattern is clearly getting colder and that's only running out to day 7. The gefs are far to inconsistent for my liking

    Yes the ensembles you posted are terrible, without doubt. Thankfully though they are from only one run and I expect them to improve.

    From the 4th January Aberdeen averages -2 - -4 uppers, with only a few perturbations down to -8 uppers late on.  The Netherlands chart you posted shows uppers averaging 0 with only a couple pertubations going below -5 late on, that is even more shocking considering we are expecting a big pattern change with some deep cold about to be injected into parts of Europe maybe reaching as far as us..

    Those ensembles have to improve some point if Europe/possibly us is to go in the freezer sometime in January. Over the last 2 days the trend has been less cold on the essembles but like I say I expect that to improve, Check again in a couple days and you will hopefully see what a good set of essembles is!

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Hi my lovelies.

    Let's take a look at mogreps 6z runs.

    Yes the trend is our friend.The downslide begins...colder air is making its presence felt...im liking this trend.

    And after glancing at areas further East of us I would say our air could be coming from a more Nthly point. Some real drop down towards the SE

     

     

    mogreps850aberdeen.png

    mogreps850birmingham.png

    mogreps850leeds.png

    mogreps850london.png

    mogreps850amsterdam_netherlands.png

    mogreps850berlin_germany.png

    I still believe we are on for a good cold spell later in January, but those essembles are terrible! 

    Look a the ones I posted a couple days ago, this is what we need to be seeing:

     

    t850West~Yorkshire (4).webp

    t850Oslo.webp

    t850Moscow.webp

    t850Rome.webp

    t850Madrid.webp

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    It's getting very messy looking at the 00z runs.

    GFS gives us a taste of winter but it looks very brief

    GEM is awful

    This is the painful lesson with relying on wintry nirvana at day 10 and beyond the nirvana always almost without fail gets watered down.

    I hope we do get something wintry as the last 4 weeks have been horrendous,didn't even feel like Xmas with the wind and rain.

     

     

    You are kidding right? 

    Ukmo is very good

    Ecm looking good so far.

    You can't just make a complete U-turn over one bad gfs run/ essembles.. And GEM adds no weight to any argument. 

    Like I said yesterday we will never have the big 3 (gfs, ukmo, ecm) all on board, singing from same hymn sheet until near the time.. The models will have wobbles and show different solutions from now until next week until a clear cut path is decided.

    Imo it's very much still on coarse, enjoy the roller coaster mate, we have a week of this before it really begins.

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

    More times often than not these charts unfold to nothing more than disappointing outcomes...... 

    Check out this post from Duane earlier, applies to you 👍

    Quote

    ''There’s an odd vibe in here today. Absolutely no kudos awarded to the few doomsayers if this cold spell doesn’t materialise for us, most cold spells don’t for us, even those chases with everything in our favour. 

     A shame because we are facing a great few weeks of chart/teleconnections viewing, with (hopefully) some wintery weather to follow. This forum should be buzzing because most Christmas periods looking forwards, are nowhere near as promising as this one.

    Again…there is no silver bullet / tipping point / threshold to cold, caused by an SSW (as in a U wind reversal at 60N / 10mb). Also, it is never a linear process when viewing data down to D0. Never ever. 

    There are many other factors, that won’t change, still in our favour as we head towards and through January. Too much emphasis and focus on one aspect going on. I would be nice if forecasting our weather was quite that easy. For instance, I’d rather see us just miss a technical SSW in a E-QBO state than hit an official SSW in a strongly W-QBO state.''

     

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    Latest met office long range forecast,make of it what you will:

     

    ''Thursday 11 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

    Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic. Currently, the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

    Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 27 Dec 2023''

     

    For me that is very good, even though they highlight the risk of severe cold is low, it is always going to be that at this range.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Lovely ICON run heights rising at the end over greenland..and that low approaching from the West will.slide,with the jet already heading south..can't wait for the gfs!

    I'ts good that we have the Micky Mouse models on board to start the proceedings, even they have their place! 

    When they are showing good, I just expect a more watered down version in reality.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Before the 12zs roll out, Just to demonstrate that you don't need howling easterlies and -15 uppers to bring heavy snow, I've just been looking through the archives and you would not believe this brought over 45cm to Leeds.

    '' The January 1995 United Kingdom Blizzard was a period of extremely heavy snowfall that affected Northern England from 25 to 26 January 1995.[5] The snow hit the major cities during the rush hour, earlier than expected, and brought chaos to the cities of Sheffield and Leeds , leaving thousands stranded overnight.[4] The city of Leeds received over 45 cm (18 in) in just the first 3 hours of the storm.''

    CFSR_1_1995012518_1.thumb.png.41eaf67ebb4bf669fa5efd83bfe28913.pngCFSR_1_1995012518_2.thumb.png.e13fe4a01938ed6421b6df78fc256219.pngCFSR_1_1995012600_2.thumb.png.f7258a348016042c8a20f321bfedc62d.pngCFSR_1_1995012600_4.thumb.png.ce339a6e1b410f6cececb75bc65a17df.png❄️❄️❄️

    Wouldn't be surprised if one of these type of scenarios start popping up in the output, giving some low lying areas a heavy fall of snow next week. (Albeit not as insane as that one lol.)

     

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Massive upgrade folks from the met...finally balanced now.. colder air could edge South bringing risk of significant snow on the boundary...then it seems beyond that the risk of winter hazards increase! Mjo forcing perhaps with the strat beginning to weaken which wouldn't necessarily be showing just yet.

    But the met are seeing something and me likes. Certainly not looking like your typical January affair.

     

    I can smell some good 12z runs later

    • Like 2
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