[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

A lot of premature comments, what is wrong with this???

       

Flat for one day 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Great run so far for central/ northern scotland  Widspread snow from west

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Saving grace might be ridge of high pressure approaching greenland

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’ll post it. 

Still 3 days from xmas, lets see how it pans out.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Going to flatten out at 168H.

120H looks decent, could go either way but I'm thinking we should be alright

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Meteociel is working now.

ECM 96 looking good. I think meteociel is behind this  time

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

ECM trickling out

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I meant awful in the context of what I was hoping for

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which surprises me,it looks awful to me.

 

Id say awful is a bartlett, dartboard low or impending Atlantic onslaught, ukmo shows neither.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's truly a 5050 though I believe we may end up with a halfway house. That is often the case in these scenarios. The GFS12Z is a fair shout at a halfway house imo.

What's also frustraiting is the first northerly attempt 19th-21st is deflected fully East of the UK due to the strength of the Iberian high.

I think to be honest most people are going to be disappointed on come say 27th December. A lot of people naturally have high expectations, they want some deep cold with snow, then longevity of the cold spell. The further south you are the less the likelihood of either! Bearing in mind a lot of people live in the South East even more so..

For me I just want it to be frosty Christmas Eve to Boxing Day with a bit of wintry weather maybe a little sleet or snow, many other people's expectations are perhaps a fair bit higher!

So all in all come the 27th looking at the latest model data I expect to be reasonably happy whilst a lot are unhappy. Ultimately comes down to personal expectations and where your located. Furthermore, I expect people in northern Scotland to be very happy come the 27th!!  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

So far we have a poor GFS and a mediocre UKMO, poor start to proceedings. Hopefully, ECM can save the day!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's nothing like ICON ..

Really deflated with that run

 

ICON, GEM and JMA always show the best scenario, that's why I ignore those 3 models. UKMO not bad but not great

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye not keen on that, looks like it may go like 00Z EC, although the cold isn't really due until 24th/25th

I think it could just be delaying the cold, I wouldn't call it bad. Just that it looks bad compared to the la la land JMA and GEM charts

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem cutting off the low I think ... At 123

GEM and JMA great, but they usually are in a scenario like this. I give them little credence 

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nope.

Ukmo looks a bust to me.

 

Wouldn't go that far mate, looks a stalemate to me

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144 - not brilliant but not bad - can it reload or is that it!! It’s much earlier than modelled off the JMA and GFS earlier. 

Looks like it will reload,not bad like you say but would have liked better

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Typical ,the most awaited 12z runs this winter and meteociel crashes and we cant see GFS

Always wetterzentrale for me, where it all began

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Before  Ecm comes out later, do people look on meteociel for ensembles? and what time do they come out?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Looks MUCH stronger via the 12Z 

Yeah Icon 12z way better  than 00z

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It looks very cold and slack..

It's funny have we are naturally looking for those tight isobars with the wind perfectly aligned off the sea for an IMBY location, but that often goes wrong. These slack flows tend to be very cold and snowfalls/features always seem to pop up out the blue!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

This really is the ICON/ECM against the GFS, GEM, UKMO, JMA, NASA/GEOS5 and NAVGEM.

If gfs and ukmo can sing off the same hymn sheet come 5pm, would set up a massive ECM later.. If we get all 3 onboard I will start to take note, maybe get excited lol.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Consistently wrong I’d venture, but we can live in hope

Love seeing some runs GEM and JMA throw out, but they very rarely verify as you say.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) computer model is being very consistent with each run at producing good synoptics for a cold Christmas. As opposed to the European (ECMWF) model which suggests milder conditions. The JMA is less reputable model however it does add some weight to the cold solution which is also supported by the GFS/GEM weather models.

Nice to see a model show cold but the JMA has zero credibility for our shores. Also GEM not that great either, but does produce some stellar runs for cold time to time, nice to see but can't be taken seriously.  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

All major midwinter SSW's start from a warming coming around the Eurasion / siberian sector though, you don't just see red appearing in the core of the vortex, they build in a few days, if the 6z went further it may have shown a technical SSW a week later.

Yeah I know they have to start somewhere, but you see little bits of warming popping up here and there with the polar vortex appearing to weaken before it falls back into place, all the time. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 6z showed an even stronger warming.

I will be excited when it shows this, not the wet fart it's currently showing..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I like this development, could get very interesting in January on…

That's nowhere near a major SSW event like we've seen in the past, with the polar vortex completely split with orange and red across the board.

What's so good about it?