[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Seem worse charts at day 10 

Not a chart for pristine snow down to low levels, but a nice chart if you love those big showers that can quickly drop 2" snow in blink of an eye with some behemoth snowflakes! . Just have to put up with the drip drip inbetween showers or during day light..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Think you guys have been talking about different things.

Definitely improved.

Excellent ECM

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Depends on wind speed and direction, this will occur with strong onshore winds which will probably prevent snow from reaching ground level anyway. Generally if snow begins to accumulate in a showery flow then it is cold enough to stick around unless something changes such as daytime or wind increasing etc.

ECM looks good on Lambert Conformal Conic.

Yeah looks nice. Hopefully favoured exposed parts could get a decent snow cover down to even 2/300ft but obviously may be a bit wet in nature..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Uppers of -12 not required maybe -7 the main requirement is low heights and light winds.

I would have thought stronger winds/ pull from the artic would have been more favourable as its the convection from cumulonimbus clouds that create these polar lows.. The greater the wind speed the greater the friction and uplift from cold air traveling over mild sea... Hence more cumulous clouds. But I could be complelty wrong mate lol

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

31 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Uppers don't matter much in a setup driven by evaporative cooling events and low heights.

 

Problem is with winds coming in off a mildish Irish sea snow will melt low ground in between showers. I think above 5/600ft could do quite well though

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

I thought low heights / thicknesses were conducive to polar low formation?  Looks like a turbulent 'high impact' spell of weather coming up over Christmas though regardless!  

Not sure of what 850s or 500s are required I just know it has to be a really potent northerly to throw up a polar low.. A 1or 2 day toppler won't cut it. Sure I heard someone on here knowledgeable years ago say you need uppers of like -12/13 but not certain.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Polar Low territory !

C

This northerly doesn't look cold enough for polar lows, needs to be atleast -45c or colder in the middle troposphere.. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

21 hours ago, joggs said:

Just want it to blooming dry out fgs. If we don't get cold we get bloody rain

This weekend will be nice 11/12c dry with overnight low about 8c, will feel lovely

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Anyone who thinks the 240 ECM chart is bad on face value if it was to be definitive has a lot to learn.

From flicking from ECM 216 to 240. A cold plunge is clearly on the way,

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There is no dressing EC det up its horrifyingly bad.

 

It's what comes after 23rd dec, we already know the next 10/11 days offer nothing wintry.

That EC chart you show, cold is about to come in a couple of days.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I thought the US was Canada Two.

You think the United States of America is part of Canada?

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

 

13 minutes ago, johncam said:

Wow that's some difference 

Looking at GFS 240h over in north America, don't think I've ever seen the whole area this mild, including a good chunk of Canada two! 

Hopefully help us coldies in some way down the line..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

Tbh its not a major event is it mate. Depends on how low you set the bar. Im not into cold frosty weather im a snow man. Some like a dickension xmas but its just wasted gas on heating to me. That said each to there own. Imo it will be January if there any substantial changes on the nhp ie blocking to the nne

I do a lot of running and outdoor sports so dry weather is very welcome for me, really like those cold frosty mornings even without snow,must be getting old lol.

Some of the battleground snow events I've had over last few years in Otley (6-10" snowfalls, 3 in one year couple years ago lol) have made me less looking for stonking E's or NE's with -15 uppers that never materialize, to realising you only need -5 uppers and an attacking system for copious amounts of snow! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Possibly but after the last 2 days of sadness and despondency it give it while maybe midweek. Sometimes least said soonest mendedI to be honest a sharp quick northerly isnt that rare in December 

Rarely seen a flake of snow from a straight northerly here, not complaining though at crystal blue skies and clean air should it come off! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Oh no, here we go again, just when we thought it was all over! The 4x daily GFS rollercoaster

Doesn't do too much for me inland but always nice to see a good cold plunge with -10 uppers.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

If Carlsburg did Northerlies …

Depends where you are for me that is bone dry, I prefer my Northerlies to be at least NNE, preferably NE

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Ideal , drop some snow, let the HP sit back over us and freeze in time for the big day 

Would be dry for most parts so far away from northern scotland, northern ireland and coastal fringes..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, Purga said:

Better... so far

 

If only the core of the high pressure could be sucked up towards greenland and pitch there.. Think it will be a close but no cigar run.

Nevertheless no point picking out specifics at this range, all in a ll a very positive run.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

But will our uk high migrate up into that gap over Greenland…..

The hights are rising northern Canada so a possibility

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Not the worst 204h chart I ever saw

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Tbh id give it a week or so. Glosea updates obv fluctuate and hyperventilating isnt going to change that. Dry for a starter going forward 

The wedge of high pressure to the south west on latest glosea chart nudging up almost blocking atlantic, wouldnt take much of a nudge further north west on next chart release to be good.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Acc to Glosea El nino / eQbo combo is also useless for us ?

Hope it's wrong then !!

If only it was that simple, a dire Glosea  chart  means we right off the whole of January! 

Thankfully only one small piece of the jigsaw,plenty of water to go under the bridge before then. I'm still expecting a decent cold spell around the turn of the year.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 0z 850's

 

A huge amount of scatter after 19th Dec with all options still on the table for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day ( including a potent Northerly and warm Southwesterlies ) It would only need the high to form a touch further North and West for a cold festive blast.

Its only 10th Dec. Anything can happen.

Exactly, if we was a week away from christmas I would be worried, not 15 days out lmao

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

4 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

‘Wet and mild for the next 10-12 days’ 

???

 

Typo (some of sentence deleted) thanks for pointing that out  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Every single winter here in the model output thread there's one thing that never changes... As soon as the models show some poor output the swords are sharpened and real cold and proper winter is wrote off for as far as the models can show! Isn't that the true sign of insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome, even when every time (every winter) the end result has come back to bite so so so many people right back in the backside .

You will see a lot of experienced members/ wise heads on here with other 15 years model watching under their belt simply not commenting. This is because we are in no man's land at the moment, what I mean is the next 10-12 days are going to start wet and mildish before dryer weather becomes established with the odd cooler interlude. After that xmas into the new year is still up for grabs (deep cold and snow), we still don't know even after this mornings output!

I will keep it short and sweet, lets look at the gfs 14 days out a few different perputations:

 

As you see some poor, some great,some packed with potential, basically anything could happen around christmas! Some big days coming up model watching plenty to play for as from just looking at this set of charts, it's still right up in the air.

I'm liking some of the latest output that it is throwing up large areas of high pressure all over the place (yes in a bad position on some latest output) but the fact it isn't just a big barty high going nowhere, we only need one of the pressure rises, wedges in the right place and boom greenland high/scandinavian high!

 

Also I saw a few disagreements over some output earlier, involving BFTP, have to say when I'm scrolling through the pages that I've missed he's one of the main names that sticks out and I always find his input quite informative! Just my tuppence in.