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Harsh Climate

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    8 hours ago, TillyS said:

    Just a couple of minor points of correction to make here.

    First, Luke was referring to the 0z not the 18z, which is where your ensemble chart is from. The 0z ensembles are here:

    Screenshot2023-12-23at07_08_42.thumb.png.704b5aa1ed54b21ccec7da3361c751ec.png

    Second, an outlier isn’t something which is on the milder or colder end of the spectrum, it’s an operational which lies partly or in whole outside of the other members entirely. Neither the 18z nor the 0z are close to ‘outliers’ as such. They each vary at times from milder to colder, as you’d expect.

    Moving on, the only blocking that is persisting for the time being on the models is the Iberian High. Here’s the ECM at T240:

    Screenshot2023-12-23at07_12_18.thumb.png.03056525d2d2f1fe121c60fcded62a13.png

     

    For as long as that is there and there’s no consistent northerly blocking there really isn’t a clear path to prolonged UK cold. The best we can aspire to with this kind of set up are northerly incursions, which as you say may bring some snow surprises especially to the northern high ground. One of those might then lead to retrogression of the high into mid-Atlantic but this isn’t really evidenced in the models as yet. There’s also sadly no firm evidence for a big pattern change as yet. We can but hope.

     

    First of all a couple of minor points of correction to make here.

    First I wasn't referring to 'lukes' post, I don't even know who Luke is lol. I was merely giving a brief summary of my current thoughts on recent output, before I went to work.

    Second, I know what an Outlier is, it's as you say ''it’s an operational which lies partly or in whole outside of the other members entirely.'' Which is what I was pointing out, the chart I showed had the gfs operational run in question clearly outside the other members even under the 48 hour range and partly out for most of the rest of the run one way or another. 

    So if your going to make a point trying to explain to someone what an outlier is from their posted chart, at least use the same information, like for like. 

     

    Your last point ''For as long as that is there and there’s no consistent northerly blocking there really isn’t a clear path to prolonged UK cold. The best we can aspire to with this kind of set up are northerly incursions'' I strongly disagree with that. We have an upcoming SSW event looking likely and lots of models are throwing out lots of eye candy late on, with lots of promise even in the mid-range.

    Forget all the technical Jargon, just from past experience alone it isn't hard to see the tide is turning from mild and windy to something more cold and dry in the near future.. With good blocking and chance of snow just around the corner in January. And thats just from glancing at the output a few times a day..

     

    Another point I disagree with is ''which as you say may bring some snow surprises especially to the northern high ground''

    I tell  you now there will be some low ground snow more especially over Scotland/ parts of northern England over the next 10 days, from time to time we are the right side of the -5 850hpa line, as systems push in from the west/north west could easily give coverings of snow down to quite low levels.. 

     

    And lastly you say ''There’s also sadly no firm evidence for a big pattern change as yet. We can but hope''

    If you can't take a near certain SSW event (Iv'e attached proof of this below) as evidence of a big pattern change, you will never see an impending pattern change until it's reached your back garden! If you want further information on what a SSW is or how it works drop me a message mate 🙂

     

    npst30.webp

    t850WestYorkshire(1).thumb.webp.7f75baf8beaaf1c84d0e1a2207391f62.webp

    • Like 20
    • Insightful 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Wow What is this run ..from the gfs absolutely poor!that washing machine low that develops..just go away!

    Just as I thought, close to being a mild outlier.

    For me the models are collectively looking very nice now, I see nothing other than blocked and cold/snowy weather the further we go into January. Just patience is needed now as the models get to grips with this big upcoming pattern change. I expect to start seeing some stellar runs over the coming days. Maybe the odd snow surprise for more northern parts of the UK over the coming 7-10 days to wet the appetite,but main course coming mid January onwards and should be difficult to shift..

    t850West~Yorkshire (1).webp

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, WYorksWeather said:

    Yeah it's not that unusual, hence the yellow. Probably need a bit more certainty about where, if anywhere, will see 80mph+ for it to be amber-worthy.

    I think for the western isles of Scotland and any high-sided vehicles headed north maybe over the Pennines, they want to stay tuned.. Anywhere else any damage should be quite sporadic, Blanket yellow warning certainly warranted like ya say.

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    The chances for the initial northerly have pretty much fully been taken off posibilities, it would have been easier to attain prolonged cold had we got the initial northerly. It will take more to get to a cold place with the charts we have today.

    Look at this though, hypothetically would only take a few subtle touches for this slider to bring widespread snow to some areas. I've seen it many times locally over the last 10 years.

    GFSOPEU12_216_2.png

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Northern Sky said:

    There seemed to be a fair bit of consensus on a chilly Christmas Eve which is what I was hoping for - having been also a fair bit of consensus on a chilly turn in the weather from the 20th which had already disappeared. Just feel disappointed as I love Christmas Eve to be cold.

    Fair does mate, I get where you are coming from. Iwould like a chilly Christmas morning but would be willing to sacrifice for greater cold say in a few days to a weeks time..

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

    We've seen a full house collapse of the initial expected cold which is what I would call bad.

    The key question is was it ever there to begin with? We never had a cross-model agreement of anything substantial within a reliable timeframe. 

    All I saw from colluding with the big 3 (gfs,ecm and ukmo) at best was a brief northwesterly, bringing frost in places Christmas morning before eventually turning milder boxing day with rain for many..

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    3 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

    Looks like we'll get a full house for flat and westerly tonight. Dreadful but there's nothing we can do about it.

    Not the worst chart I ever saw, rather than cold at Christmas before turning mild, could be the other way around mild at Christmas but colder after! This run may be better for the future 

    GFSOPNH12_162_1 (1).png

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, AdrianHull said:

    Not sure why the UKMO is so quickly forgotten when the ECM roles out. Yea by all means it's not the best but I wouldn't just dismiss all other runs. Lots of ups and downs till then and I certainly won't be going on an emotional run to run rollercoaster. Things are looking decent especially for more northern members.

    Because you need cross-model agreement from the big 3, GFS, ECM and UKMO before being quite confident of what will happen.

     

    • Like 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

    This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer. 

    There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.

    Depends on your location. Here close to leeds had next to nothing from 1997 all the way through until 2009, then in 2010 it all changed. Since then have had falls of at least 3" every other year including about six or seven 6-10" falls! At asl of only 200/300 feet two...  

    So for me winters have improved drastically over last 13 years!

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    The fax chart for Thursday shows a massive pressure differential between Southern Scandinavia and The Azores. As a result a powerful jet into The British Isles. So going by that that , I would expect some rapid changes Mi-WEEK in some of the outputs. Forecast for 🤶 pretty hard to nail down as a result of chasing those fronts and pressure changes. Enjoy the roller coaster !

    C

    20231217.webp

    Do you think we could see some wacky charts thrown out over christmas day due to lack of data/ staffing. Or is that just a myth?

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    I’ve been away from the forum waiting for a run like this which fits the narrative for the end of December into January! Looks like the 5am alarms are back!

    Saw you posting and had to check I wasn't in Yorkshire thread, never seen ya post in here 🤣

    Good Ecm in the end, I prefer the slow burner to the blink and you miss it northerly!

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