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Harsh Climate

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    36 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Unfortunately in this m0dern w1nter era it’s nigh on impossible!

    What was possible in the U.K. is now only possible in Scandinavia.

    Summers on the other end are so easy to see heatwaves now compared to the past few decades.

    Winters suck here!

     

     

    IMG_1181.png

    Not here in West Yorkshire. Up until the winter of 2010 winters sucked here two, in the 15 previous years I barely saw a single dusting of snow.. 

    Now every other year I seem to be getting one or two good falls of snow! (6-10'') falls. And that's only at 200/300ft ASL

    I believe winters come in cycles, I believe we are in a more wintry cycle now. Forget global warming there is also melting of icebergs and polar ice into the Atlantic ocean, that alone could eventually cause our winters to cool down, let alone the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, but that is a different story.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Always worth remembering cold spells here are often preceeded by a UK high..

    This has all the hallmarks of a slow burner from where I'm sitting..

    Considering the chase started around 22nd December, this could be the longest chase in the history of Netweather. 

    Plenty of toys to be thrown out of prams and that's before any snow potential where there will be winners and losers right down to <T12 👶😠❄️😁😂 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Do some of you actually even view all the ensembles before making a call! Every morning everyday of the year its the same its all going wrong philosophy...the talk for a while as been the 2nd half to mid month period of January when things start to happen. But the old Amazon attitude of see something today,and want it tomorrow is in full affect.

    The sheer amount of ens from ecm that really slice that NH open are large. There appears to.be hardly appetite for a flat zonal pattern at all.

    I'm doing my best here to tell you how I see it and keep the positives high...if there was no ensemble support I wouldn't be posting. But so many its going wrong,it always goes wrong is making me have doubts now...even though I'm seeing good output.

    Time out for me folks...im wishing you a very happy new year and all the luck and good health 2024 can throw at ya...if your suffering then I'm sending you strength and wishing you a full recovery. Its my Dad's funeral next week so time for me to try and get my head straight.

    Keep the belief it looks OK.

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    Sorry to hear about your loss, puts things into perspective.

    look forward to hearing you post again, hopefully some snowy charts in the not too distant future! ❄️

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    26 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    just freezing the ground before the snow arrives. 

    Great point that, I remember an Easterly in January years ago where up to a foot of snow was forecast, after a week of heavy snow we ended up with only a  couple inch of slush because even though air temps where around freezing the ground was too warm and melted the snow from below! Preceding the easterly we had no frosts only milder weather.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, weathercold said:

    Based solely on the 6z we are so close to something exceptional we just can’t seem to trigger momentum to fall in place. There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.

    Too early to call mate, models are only just starting to get to grips with upcoming pattern change. 

    ''There is no disputing the ingredients are there for something memorable but we need luck…will the dice fall.'' That will always be the case on our tiny island!

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Harsh Climate

    Unusual set up on this GFS 6z run, almost as if heights towards Greenland and the north of us are being built from the south up rather than the conventional way of WAA up the left hand side inflating a blocking high!

    GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

    Let's hope the GFS is onto something here, would gradually turn colder from the east with a strengthening block to the north and west.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, weathercold said:

    Not seeing the enthusiasm shared by some- we can’t seem to maintain a high lat block across most model suites, we can’t seem to tap into the brutal cold east of us. There is no longevity to this currently, at best a high bang over us.

    Wintry nirvana this ain’t, sustainable cold neither. All v sobering this morning compared to where we could have been a week or so ago pre the SSW projected collapse.

    Still not seen even one deep freeze run - says it all.

     

    Just look at the GFS assembles over the last day or so, there are lots of deep cold/snowy nirvana clusters! Every cluster is certainly a possibility to one degree or another.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Bottom end of its suite but not a cold outlier.

    Im not getting this despondency today over a cold spell that really never was forecast to start until high pressure moves in.

    Writing off Jan on 31st Dec is brave.

    Screenshot_2023-12-31-09-31-37-64_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

    I think It's going to be a slow burner

    candle-4478396.thumb.jpg.73ebaba860a9b271db93123fc78f9f1f.jpg

    Have many of us got the patience and stamina though? 🤪😂

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I hear some talk of the SSW not happening now, but Shawly this shows it as still happening?

    npst30(6).thumb.webp.d7912bc9ce30048178bbd58b69985ce0.webp

    Is the problem that we don't get the full vortex split down to all levels of the atmosphere, rather than a SSW not happening at all.

    Slightly encouraging end to SSW forecast run this morning does start to show signs of a vortex split happening but much delayed from what was previously forecast

    npst30(8).thumb.webp.cfcd47a487a353e5bb725db01d49d9d8.webp

    We may have to play the long long game, with something very wintry in February rather than in January.

     

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Duane S. said:

    But where has there suddenly been a trend for the block to now be too far north ? 

    Of course, if a block IS too far north, it indeed opens the door to the Atlantic. If a block is too far west we are at risk of any mixing out the cold. Too far east, we miss it all together. Too far south etc….

    I think all your post does is highlight the incredible fine margins involved with getting a cold snowy spell to the UK.

    Anyway, very decent chart suite this morning. A initial mid lat high seems to be gaining traction, but with forcings still likely to be in our favour, a further retrograde looks likely. 

    It’s clear how we could have a memorable January if things fall right for us.

    I think the biggest risk will be the block been too far SouthEast with the deep cold affecting the low countries, while milder air pushes around the NW flank of our blocking high. Which could eventually topple over and leaving us is a more milder/mobile flow of air.

    This is a long long way away at the moment so I'm giving it little credence, even if we are about to head into the freezer the models especially the GFS love playing with this notion and predicting an overly aggressive return to Atlantic driven weather. Also if that was to happen who's to say its not temporary with a huge reload/ next bite of cherry just around the corner?

    Just we must look at all the options on the table so those showing a less favourable outcome should not be discounted. Its always a possibility. In my opinion blocked/ cold for mid/late January is the form horse probably 70/30 in favour.

     

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    From a quick scan at the charts this morning it looks like any deep cold to the UK will come from a reload, second bite of the cherry. Was hoping there was a possibility of it coming in the first attempt, but less likely now from overnight data. That is if we are actually going to get deep cold at all, I am just going on overnight data so plenty of scope for change.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, MJB said:

    ECM Gives us yet another version of what might happen

    Yeah this is the poor version we have seen tonight on ECM.

    Like I said earlier it all depends on where this low to the southwest of Greenland goes and how much pressure it places on the western side of our blocking high

    ECMOPEU12_216_1(1).thumb.png.dba4be9dbf437001b9e795723caa58c5.png

    We really need this to be sucked up the western side of Greenland or at least stay to the left. Otherwise we end up with the ECM 00z solution!

    • Like 1
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