Harsh Climate

January 9

GFS OP 204H

GFS AVG 204H

Just as I thought, the best place for the GFS OP, is the bin!

January 9

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

I posted this last night but nobody took me up on it. Heights don’t look to hang around on the 168hrs UKMO over Greenland.

There is a definite trend for heights to start lowering over Greenland from around 164h on pretty much every model. We just need to make sure we are on the northern side of lows which will eventually encroach from between the NW ~ SW.

At this early stage, I would say Central UK northwards looking good, South of that I would be rather worried!

More runs needed though, big ECM coming up

January 9

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

My preference is the snowline stays south of the Midlands actually.

That way more people see snow and those of us North of the snow will hopefully see lots of snow showers and frosty nights.

I saw a couple runs yesterday toy with that idea, battle ground snow not making it past the north midlands but with lots of snow showers piling in from the east just north into northern England/ southern Scotland!

You don't want to be in the dreaded dry patch sandwiched in between though

January 9

12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes HLB to re establish to our NW at any opportunity as i have said previously.I favour slider gate as some have predicted with frequent disturbances swinging up into a very cold air mass and dragging in a NE feed as they move into the North Sea but at regular intervals.

Yeah been a few models toying with that idea, sliders from the NW a fair bit safer in keeping the cold 2, rather than the big barage from the SW lol.

January 9

From looking at the latest output it does look like over the last 24 hours most models have moved away from the suggestion of a retrogressing high towards Greenland/Scandi later next week with perhaps deep cold and a more longer lasting cold spell.

What we have instead is potentially a brilliant setup for Central UK, which there could be one or 2 big falls of snow even down to very low levels. The trade off is I think we lose the potential for one big long cold spell, with snow showers. Instead, we lose HLB and you would fancy some milder air to filter through at some time late next week. Not a guarantee but a good likelihood for most areas. Perhaps far NE holding onto colder air. For me this isn't too bad if you achieve some good snowfall(s) beforehand. And further cold or even HLB could just be around the corner after a brief lul anyway.

January 9

18 minutes ago, York-snow said:

I bet the MOD thread is in full knicker wetting mode this morning then??

Couldn't have put it better myself

January 9

Latest ECM is a snowfest for our region, but most likely would reduce longetivity of cold spell.

Would be a lot of rain/sleet south of Midlands. All just speculation at this stage though.

January 8

37 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

@Harsh Climate yep. About 2 to 5cm across much of the region if it falls as snow. Looks like it could be marginal away from high ground for a short time. Would be good see the dew points. As you say the ECM is not the only model to toy with this. The previous GFS runs and GEM have had this too. One to watch!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?ech=6&mode=25&carte=6

Pretty good shout that, here in East Leeds would probably squeeze couple cm out of a set up like that. In Otley I'd have been licking my lips perhaps 2'' not 2cm lol..

Yeah might be one to watch as I'm pretty confident there will be snow opportunities next week!

January 8

27 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Totally agree. ECM looks great for the midlands north but looks like it’s will come again do only a brief milder spell before cold air moves back south. All proper wintry spells have milder interludes do in my eyes it’s the general pattern that looks locked in for the foreseeable future

Yes, there does seem some delays in getting the cold air south.

In the end the boundary of polar air on ECM reaches the middle of France, way past the south of England!

I think it will happen, the devil is in the detail though.

January 8

2 hours ago, Mark Bayley said:

Yes, GEM would have a snow to rain event, GFS likely just misses most of us (though snow might make it to Sheffield). Far to out to be concerned on detail, plus we might not get a low at all. If I was betting i'd think any low would correct south, thus leaving us out the battle ground (central Midlands being the sweet spot). thus leaving us to hope for disturbances / snow showers from the East. Lets see how it evolves.

ECM pretty much removes the battleground snow event early next week but could be a shortwave moving down from the NW instead

Also, the rest of the ECM run is far better for longevity of our cold spell two, hands down I choose the ECM's take on next week's weather!

January 8

Well it gets there by the 17th, great for everywhere here

January 8

There's no getting away from the ECM looking great for the northern half of the UK and less so for the southern half. Not any bias here just the way I see this run

January 8

And this point ''A class 1 WMO weather station requires 100m free of windbreaks and significant structures like fences'' these weather stations are designed for people's back gardens, how many people who have purchased a Youshiko or similar weather station have a garden with at least 100m length or width?

January 8

4 minutes ago, Aleman said:

I assure you it can. I have a terrace with south facing patio windows that reflect sunlight onto it. We never get frost within a couple of feet of the house even down to -6 or -7C. If I mounted a weather station on the house wall there it could be 5C or more higher than the bottom of the garden on a windless sunny winter day that does not average temperatures out. In summer, the bottom of the garden is cooler due to shading and transpiration from numerous trees, shrubs and grass. Temperatures can pool bewteen outr hedges when there is no wind. On a grey windy day, it's probably less than 1C but the house still radiates, especially through windows. Such variations seem widely underappreciated but more can be learned about weath er station siting if you research. Getting the best representation of what you want is up to you though. Do you want to tell people what the temperature is in the cool bit of your garden or on the hottest bit of your sunbathing terrace?

I take it you do not have a large garden but a small garden could still probably manage 1-2C difference when not windy, much less if windy and no sun.

I'm, not trolling at all. A class 1 WMO weather station requires 100m free of windbreaks and significant structures like fences, building, roads and paths because they are considered to have ab effect up to that distance.

Weather Station Siting: How to locate your weather station

WWW.CAMPBELLSCI.EU

Numerous linnks to references at the bottom of this:

Siting Classification | World Meteorological Organization

COMMUNITY.WMO.INT

You have seen where mine is located from the pic on the other thread (and yes it is now 1.25m off the ground), it's about 20 feet from my back window near the fence. Obviously, you don't place it next to your house where there is heat coming from it.

January 8

3 minutes ago, Aleman said:

/Assets/Images/logo-global.png

Met Office WOW -

WOW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The UK Met Office Weather Observation Website (WOW). WOW allows anyone to submit their own weather data, anywhere in the world.

Temperatures from nearby are often not comparable unless it is very windy. A northern and southern aspect could differ by 2 or 3C for instance in calmer weather. Central of a small town could be 1 or 2C higher than just outside it. (I've seen London up to 6C on a still winter day). A shaded "cold pool" can be a few degrees colder than nearby. I could probably get 3C difference in my own garden with hedges, tree overhangs, wall reradiation and window reflections. Siting a weather station is notoriously difficult for it to be representative of the area. Your main aim is to get it representative of your garden! Temperatures can be locally different within metres - either side of a fence or hedge, central garden or corner out of breeze. Make sure your weather station is as open to weather as possible - usually the middle of the garden - but avoid sunlight and reflections.

I'm not sure about shading. Traditional probes had to be in Stephenson screens to block out sun and windchill effects of settling rain - in order to make for as much consistency as could be had from place to place. I've no idea how modern varying plastic-housed stations account for this. Anyone?

I don't mean this in a bad way mate but I want whatever your smoking!

If your outside weather sensor is protected from the elements like sunlight/ rain in say a designed weather sensor box like the one I've got

You certainly aren't going to get a difference of 3c whether or not it is placed near a hedge or a fence! . I think your on the troll aren't ya.

January 8

All irrelevant now as deep FI but this slider from the NW would bring in more snow.

January 8

246h, we are well and truly in the cold air. The battle ground snow line around northern France now, Uk well and truly in the freezer.

January 8

I can smell a major snow event coming to North Midlands/Northern England with rain/sleet to south according to GFS

Would follow on the general theme from over the last several years

January 8

31 minutes ago, joggs said:

Underwhelming mo update for me. Wonder if we're far enough north to hang onto the cold air next week.....

If I was south of the Midlands I would be very worried. We tend to do well from battleground scenarios, this could be the making of our winter!

I've seen strong cold NE/E pull with -12 uppers provide nothing but cold and dry for our region while Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Yorkshire Dales etc get battered by snow showers.. Time and time again.

I'd take battle ground snow any day now, forget those perfect NE with powder snow showers too rare!

January 8

Anyone in Garforth give me a temperature reading from their weather station, just set mine up and want a comparison.

Is Bazookabob about?

January 7

Excellent ecm 192!

January 7

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ecm 144!.

168 should be a peach!

January 7

A fair few people getting excited over snow potential in Kent, maybe southeast tomorrow. I'm just not seeing it, -10 850s with the 'green' 500s just doesn't cut it in my opinion.

With the warm/damp ground can't see any appreciable snowfall low ground. The window of potential snowfall maybe 12 hours just looks too short especially as I see most precipitation light to moderate.

January 7

24 minutes ago, Aleman said:

It's badly sited. A WMO Class 1 weather station is supposed to be 100m away from significant windbreaks but yours is next to a fence that blocks the weather out and prevents you getting a realistic measurement of local conditions. You are just measuring a very very local microclimate of in a very sheltered corner of your own garden. It's very difficult to get readings that represent your locality if there are all sorts of interfering structures nearby but the best place is usually in the middle of your lawn but out of the sun. It's actually quite hard to get an undistorted reading in an urban garden (e.g. sunlight reflection off windows!) but it's still very interesting and useful so long as you undertand the weaknesses of your station and its location. Read up on it a bit, find a better location and good luck with enjoying its future output.

Seems a bit extreme that, not many people have that option in their back garden.

Well it's saying 4.9C now, that must be pretty accurate?

When I have set up an outside temperature sensor before in winter, the best way to test has been by filling a small plastic bottle top with water on an evening when the temperature is expected to fall below zero, when starting above. Now if the water freezes in it when the reading is close to zero you know it's pretty accurate. For me this has worked well in the past, I will be doing it again soon.

One time had the tiniest bit of snow melt on a metal post holding garden chains, temperature was showing 0.2c, soon as there was no melatge at all I noticed the temperature reading was bang on 0c that is how I knew that reading was bang on perfect.

January 7

6 minutes ago, reef said:

It needs to be located 1.25m above the ground. That is the 'standard' height for temperature measurement. That way it'll get a bit more airflow around it and record a more accurate temperature.

Sound I will raise it up to that level, thought it was best kept away from the wind lol.

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