Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

i luv snow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,221

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by i luv snow

    North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, Thunderbolt_ said:

    I think southern and eastern parts of the region might get a bit of a battering soon. Those snow showers over Cumbria/North Lancashire seem to have merged together into a bit more of a prolonged area of moderate to heavy snow.

    My thoughts also, definitely merging and slightly intensifying and now heading through. Great developments, and still snowing here anyway. Exciting times!

    North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by i luv snow

    2 minutes ago, chris78 said:

    Yes but look how much ppn has just passed, that gave a dusting and look significantly more than whats to come, dont get me wrong im happy any snow here is great, but It looks pretty clear we have had more than is to come.

    If the ppn to the NW of us hits us, it looks heavier to me. As in the stuff to SW Scotland/above NI.

    North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by i luv snow

    1 minute ago, chris78 said:

    I really hope to have to apologise this for this later but.......

    Look at the radar, PPN above NI and to SW Scotland is heading SEwards towards our region... ppn also out in Irish Sea. Still lots of PPN over our region as it is. That isn't deluded. I'm not saying it is definitely going to hit us, but the ppn isn't moving W to E, and was never forecast to.

    North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by i luv snow

    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I don't see where the precipitation is going to come from? From the radar it looks pretty much over?

    Look at the ppn in SW Scotland, moving SE'wards. I would imagine it is forecast to come from there, but on the current trajectory it almost looks like it is too high to hit the NW, but maybe there will be a change in track. I am keeping my eye on it. Infact the ppn above NI is also heading SE's, so either way, ppn will hit the region. Most models have heaviest stuff over us at 9pm.

    North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, chris78 said:

    I hope your right, but looking at the radar compared to the forecast they dont match, so when it was forecast for is sort of irelivant now

    Latest GFS has adjusted the extend of the ppn to roughly where it is now, and it still goes for the heaviest stuff over NW come around 9pm, the Irish sea ppn is pepping up as we speak.

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Anyone know what has caused this tropical storm in the first place? Also, how rare is it for this time of year?

    http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-alex-atlantic-ocean-azores

    Quote

    Alex has become a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, making it just the second hurricane on record to form in that basin during the month of January. The last hurricane that formed in the Atlantic during January was in 1938, according to NOAA's historical hurricane tracker database. Alex is also the first hurricane to occur in the Atlantic during January since Alice in 1955. Alice initially formed into a hurricane on Dec. 31, 1954, but then remained a hurricane into early January 1955.

    Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 85 mph, making Alex a Category 1 hurricane. This also makes Alex the strongest January hurricane on record, surpassing the 80-mph peak of both Alice and the 1938 hurricane.

    Quote

    According to the National Hurricane Center, Alex's formation on Wednesday made it the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since 1978. It's also only the fourth known storm to form in January since records began in 1851. As mentioned earlier, Alex is also only the second known hurricane to form in the Atlantic during the month of January.

    Based on the long-term average, about once every 10 years, a tropical storm forms before June, most often in the month of May.

     

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

    The UKMO run being discussed is a downgrade on a lengthy cold spell...no question about it.  And to describe it as such is discussing that model run.  Yes it doesn't mean that it is now accurate whereas it wasn't before, but it is as legitimate to discuss it as it was to say how great the previous runs might have been.

    In fact perhaps the most misleading thing is to say perhaps is that consistency in runs is a  good thing.  At the end of the day it's only accuracy that counts.  And where there are a range of signals that lead to a model providing different runs every time it comes out, perhaps it should be acknowledged that at least that model is responding to those signals and trying to bring them together, rather than ignoring them but trying to play catch up later?

    Sorry to keep banging on about it, but you can comment on a particular run (perhaps with charts to back up your thoughts) but you can't talk about it as gospel, as if it is more likely to happen than the previous one, or the next one. And yes accuracy is of course important, but this is usually (note usually) accompanied by consistency. 

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by i luv snow

    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    The downgrades this morning start at T72 so no way back I am afraid. Pragmatism must prevail for the sake of new members trying to feel their way. 

    Agree to disagree mate. You don't discount the few previous runs based on one single run.The upgrades might start at T48 on the next run, but it doesn't mean the models have sorted it out yet. That's all I'm saying. Pleasure to have such optimistic and enlightening posts for new members to read...

    • Like 5
×
×
  • Create New...