[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

whilst perusing a thread, nothing is more exciting than an ad that says " if you die unexpectedly" great fun

[Model Chat And Moods]

excellent 12z from gfs. lots of potential there. just a little question, would the forecast output from the bbc etc be so obsessed with possible snowfall in kent, if kent was infact stornoway?

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

i had 30 seconds of hail. i wonder if that will make the news?

[Spring / Summer 2010]

it's early february. what is the point of any conjecture about spring let alone summer. it's the same every year, and it's a waste of time, even from the meto. sorry, bad day

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

Advisories are always subject to change - and they are likely to change again.

Nowcasting from tomorrow onwards might reveal flash orange warnings. Those are the one's that really matter. Forecasting ppn from the North Sea is a tricky and fickle business

I will be very surprised if the regional counties in general do not see at least a covering of some sort in the coming days, The suggested wind direction should bring ppn inland from time to time, and there is enough instabilty indicated.

totally agree. when you've been in snow business as long as you or i have online, nowcasting is fairly key. last feb was case in point for parts of london. been saying it for years but forecasting snow accurately from convective activity is a nightmare, maybe on a par with forecasting imported storms in the summer

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

i'm quite surprised how much snow has fallen in london, and it's now settling!

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

I agree. We are in a classic winter and some want to be on the doom and gloom train

Anyway, it has been snowing here for a few hours now with the heavy burst thrown in. The temp is colder than first expected. It's 1.5C :cold:

Joe B's latest is very interesting indeed.

The heavy snow destined for the SE boarders later this week will move inland covering the whole of the SE

been snowing here for hours now. just a shame it cant settle. looking forward to a crisp bright day tomorrow

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

hello south west from a snizzley london. devon and cornwall are my favourite parts of the uk. glad you're getting a bit of the white stuff in bristol where i used to work. hope to be heading down south west when the spring/summer hits

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

i'm not sure which i prefer as i sit here working. moderate continuous snow that just melts on impact, or a clear cold sunny day with no snow at all. i've decided, it's the latter.

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

now in sw london and the snow getting heavier. wont settle though, and looks like dying out shortly

[London And Southeast - Cold Spell Discussion]

well its snowing in chelsea. not that unexpected, but nice to see

[Model Output Discussion]

still looks like the serious cold is heading towards austria, n italy, the swiss and the alps/massif. anyway just one gfs run. it'll all change

[Model Chat And Moods]

nice to see teits mention buchan, a true pioneer in meteorolgy. what would he make of todays modelling and sophistication.

[Model Output Discussion:]

I am still not 100% convinced having taken all the previous days ups and downs into consideration, but things are looking rosy,it would be terrible it all went t*ts up now. My gut feeling is that this will be the snowiest spell of the winter (albeit shorter)in my neck of the woods

i'm with you on the lack of confidence. i think if the 12z's continue with the theme we can start to relax. as for snow, well if all goes to plan then it will be the snowiest spell this winter for many in the east. even typing that makes me feel i'm jinxing things!!

[Model Output Discussion:]

that feature over lapland/north norway remains a pain.

[Model Output Discussion:]

18z rolling out now. convinced that our ne block will win through this run. the 12z tomorrow is the crucial one, and hopefully the big 3 will be absolutely on side by then

[Model Output Discussion:]

Thanks guys, some fair criticism and also praise welcomed.

There is a clear instance of a teleconnective change influencing our thinking over the last 48 hrs.

<snip>

Fascinating read GP. Many thanks

[Model Output Discussion:]

Right, the models now do have the evolution nailed.

What do we have? Pressure build from the NW, ridging down and the Atlantic negaitvely tilted as the jet goes SOUTH. It was all about looking NW and was always all about the jet digging south. The coldest period 9-13 Feb. Snow for SE and E areas come Sun/Mon. We will see LPs move W to E along N France or the channel.

This is solar driven and a pattern I have been advocating since January. I have been and remain confident that there will be no more backtracking as the models have picked up on the solar driven signal. By mid Feb the block will sink and a LP will move in on NW to SE axis.

Never in doubt......not. <_<

ECM is quite beautiful......................and correct.

BFTP

good summary bftp. now, when will the beeb dare to suggest a return to cold. their current headline is for a milder weekend. so much uncertainty that i guess they'll wait as long as possible

[Model Output Discussion:]

i'm still not convinced. if this set up remains at 12z tomorrow, with full agreement twixt models then i may pour a glass of wine. actually i may pour one now in anticipation

[Model Chat And Moods]

eh up. not getting excited, but interesting developments from the 6z around 150. 12z will be a must see

[Model Output Discussion:]

whilst we are experiencing a winter fairly alien to our shores, in recent times at least, can anyone explain quite why the models are somersaulting around from one run to the next? i can't remember the last time model watching was so random/frustrating/fascinating(!) i can see that overall, despite major blips, the trend is for cooler conditions to return, but it must be a forecasters' biggest nightmare at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion:]

well, is there much to add to the model discussion. i don't remember such fluctuation in many years of model watching. i think a less cold scenario is nailed for especially the south this week, but its beyond that which is in the balance. looking at the beebs monthly update they are going for an easterly blast of some considerable impact, but with FI hovering so much closer than normal i remain sceptical.

[Model Output Discussion]

now that the gfs has flipped completely the meto 6-15 day forecast update will be interesting today. normally these forecasts change reasonably gradually, so how will they handle today's update which by rights should be dramatically different. anyway, disappointing 0z, and back to square one for the moment

[Model Output Discussion]

ukmo versus gfs. in the words of harry hill. FIGHT!

[Model Output Discussion]

Can you imagine what would happen if that Monster cyclone in mid atlantic moved due east and undercut the block say

in over Biscay, blizzard central, for the south, and it would only serve to reinforce the developing easterly ! Incredible scenes this afternoon.

i find that ludicrous cyclone very odd, wouldnt like to be under it if it occurs. little change in the reliable from gfs 12z. we end up cold and sluggish, probably cloudy with snow grains in the east at times. main headline is, as we're all saying, such discrepency twixt gfs and ukmo