[Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->]

with the model divergence this morning i dont envy whoever is presenting the weekly outlook on the beeb in a short while. look out for the word 'uncertainty', a forecasters favourite in these situations. personally i'm backing the ecm as the forum horse

[Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->]

Why do battle lines have to be drawn in this way Ian! Dave has said all evening he wants the low further south to increase the chance of a longer cold spell so why do you keep baiting like this, to be honest i'm getting a bit sick of the NIMBYISM in this thread at the moment.

Everyone on this thread wants a cold spell with some snow, everyone is on the same side here so why do we have to have these warring factions! To be honest it might be Xmas but alot of people seem to have forgotten this, now for the last time can everyone just get along, be nice to each other and cut out the bickering!

To be honest if people continue in this vein i may just not bother posting for a while until some festive spirit returns!

i tend to agree. sadly the festive season ends in about 55 mins as far as christmas in concerned. i cant make headway of the the charts at the moment, but thomasz's call for blizzards on radio 4 this morning may be refined tomorrow. we shall see

[General Model Output Discussion Thursday December 24Th:]

seasons greetings. great charts. i noticed carol k mentioned very cold next week with snow on her 6.57 forecast

[General Model Output Discussion Tuesday December 22Nd:]

wow to the ecm. puts me in mind to go for a ski weekend in scotland in early jan if there remains consistency in further runs. interesting what nick says about dodgy runs over christmas due to lack of data. i remember that happening last year i think. lots to look forward to after this mildish interlude

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

just had a very heavy spell of snow in london. settled on wet ground

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

sort of turning to snow now. waste of time because its so wet. ice is definitely the story as skies clear tonight

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

sleety rain here. miserable conditions

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4]

as canadiancoops says a very interesting day/night for the southeast. then it's scotland's turn, maybe

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4]

well it looks darn good for the southeast. as usual the north downs are in for the biggest totals. beyond that well i think the models are struggling.

[Model Output General Discussion]

Wasn't it the following month Jan 82 when Newport dropped to -26? There was a few -20 nights during December 81 and January 82. It was a remarkable cold spell made even more remarkable by the fact that after the mild interlude, equally severe cold reloaded in January! It was the 1979 snow and the 81/82 cold that sparked my interest in the weather, particularly extremes.

yeah i recorded -23 that year in rural oxfordshire. so cold going to school my nose froze

[East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion]

Absolutely Zero here. 0.0c Dew point -2.9c

Temp has been rising for last hour as we were below freezing.

glad its absolutely zero and not absolute zero. that could cause problems!!!! above zero in london, but then what do you expect with the urban radiator on permenantly

[East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion]

No sign of any gritting round here. maybe a little early. no doubt GMTV are gearing up for their predicable annual gritting outside broadcast

[East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion]

nearly 800 users on NW! lovely upgrade on the 12z. nice one gfs

[East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion]

I was wondering, when does insignificant snow become significant? i guess in london its about a millimetre, and in the highlands half a foot!!

[Model Output - General Discussion]

just had a gander at the pub run. brings christmas back to whiteish for the east coast, but a ton of chopping and changing to get through. as i'm having to travel i personally could do without a white christmas. this week is fine though!

[Model Output Discussion]

interesting gfs. good looking in the reliable, a bit odd in the unreliable. those two atlantic lows spinning around and trying to spoil christmas day look very odd. in the short term, plenty of cold air, and a forecasters nightmare. fun though. long live the greenie heights. have a great saturday eve folks. just poured my first glass

[Cold Spell Discussion]

at last the weather has gone back to the early eighties. gfs charts suspiciously similar to december 1981. get those legwarmers out, forget the fashion police

[Model Output Discussion]

Something out of Dr Who, for sure. However, I can still imagine the Met Office update tomorrow: Cooler everywhere, some wintry showers creeping into the SE later in period.. Again , still FI .I'll believe that when I see it. However, the models are tending to upgrade ............ How then does this compare with 1947(Jan) Jan 63, surely a more severe spell than that???

Question: Has there EVER been a synoptic set up like this, either T+ 0, t+ 2500 or in the last 60 years? If so, when!

yes, the eighties. december 81

[Model Output Discussion]

it does still look like that the south east steals the initial prize, but what happens next is anyone's guess. with that greenie block it's all to play for in the uk

[Model Output Discussion]

looks like the "warm-up" shot of cold clips kent and heads in the direction of nick sussex and our other friends across the manche on the 12z.

[Model Output Discussion]

suggestion. why don't we all move to finland, then we wouldn't have to heave through all this speculative stress that involves snow. having said that, i think this spell will deliver, initially to southern and eastern areas, what i'm not convinced by is the secondary evolution from the north. don't you sometimes wish the models only went out to 48 hrs! then it would be so much more peaceful

[Model Output Discussion]

The most anticipated 18Z GFS i can ever remember.

Will it side with ECM and leave UKMO on its own?

I Will be heartbroken If GFS pulls the plug on this.

lol. so anticipated im opening the wine and ordering a pizza!!! trust the gfs, i dont think it will back down. if it does the wine will take the edge off the dissapointment at least

[Cold Spell Discussion 5]

mr cockroft alludes to a cold spell on the bbc london lunchtime output. talking only as sleet at this stage

[Model Output Discussion]

Sometimes I think that seeing so many charts a day gives us worries that years ago would not have existed, we all know that 00 will differ from 06 and so on -we should just be pleased that overall the promised spell has at this stage stayed very much as it was 2-3 days ago and fine tuning may well occur until maybe 12 hours prior to the main event. As TM said in a post earlier " in the 9 years of chart watching he cannot remember such synoptics", I fully concur.

I totally concur. these are some of the best charts for years, and so early in the season. we are spoilt by the internet, or maybe just stressed. in dec 1981 it just happened, admittedly from the north and was more of a surprise than anything else. anyway, decent models, mostly agreeing, now its all in the detail

[Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->]

it is ironic that with i think 192 countries lined up to discuss global warming in denmark, we are poised for a dose of real cold in europe