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patrickshere

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Everything posted by patrickshere

  1. patrickshere
    Discount the GFS entirely at your peril guys. Whilst it is showing a different (unfavourable) outcome to the ECM and UKMO, it's now a couple of consecutive runs that have picked up on it, and it may have latched onto something the other models haven't yet. It's not unheard of for the GFS to pick-up changes like this first, or for things looking good to die even within T+72. Just err on the side of caution a bit, I'd focus on Friday, and once Friday is done - then look to what is happening beyond that. 18z NAE is a downgrade on precipitation amounts, spread of significant snow cover and duration of the event friday for anyone outside of the SW. Still time for that to change though, and things to be brought back slightly west.
  2. patrickshere
    NAE precip accum. for people asking: Only runs out to 6pm at the moment, hard from that to work out what'll happen afterwards. That's a lot of precipitation though on that chart, especially for north wales. Just another run though, and there's shifts with every one.
  3. patrickshere
    Snow for (virtually) all.
  4. patrickshere
    Waiting tentatively for the 12z now from both NAE and GFS as Friday moves into the reliable time frame. I'm weary of any output much past the weekend. With lying snow over much of the country it'll be that much harder to shift the cold, and we could get some very low maxima's/minima's on Sunday with -15 -> -20 likely sunday night in places and maxima of -5 not being unlikely during the day. edit: Metcheck is a good laugh for my region: http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=aylesbury&day=2 http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=aylesbury&day=3 http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=aylesbury&day=5 http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=aylesbury&day=6 http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=aylesbury&day=7 Wow.
  5. patrickshere
    Surprising, because for your area the 06z is actually better than the 00z. I'd take the 06z's Friday over the 00z's any day. The 00z is mainly an event for the south west. The 06z gives the whole country a chance. If it's snow that you want, we need some progression and for the fronts to come over. Everything (as it stands) would fall as snow. If you wish for things to go back West you end up losing all the precipitation, and at least for me - I'm looking for snow in the charts, not just cold. We get periods of sustained cold every other year.
  6. patrickshere
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_retention
  7. patrickshere
    All snow's melted here, little tiny patches left on the grass.. The wet showers coming in from the north west after the main front being responsible.. Temp was up to 1.5c an hour ago.
  8. patrickshere
    Wouldn't worry, they'll drop over the next couple hours.
  9. patrickshere
    It's been falling as heavy rain up there, but with the sun setting and dropping dew points / temps due to the clear sky between now and then, if it gets this far it should be snow.
  10. patrickshere
    Those red blobs over Birmingham look to be heading towards Aylesbury area, not sure if the intensity will last.
  11. patrickshere
    Funny how being just 10-15 miles east of here seems to made all of the difference when I see snow amounts in Hemel, St Albans, MK, etc.. Going to check out of this thread now, back to model watching for the weekend!
  12. patrickshere
    Snow's stopped in Aylesbury and looks a lot lighter outside. Snow started melting, had all of 1-1.5cm, perhaps 2cm at a max. Looks like the front intensified as it moved east of us, though, with those red blobs from cambridge down to tunbridge wells.
  13. patrickshere
    Got to laugh how I'm pretty much in the only light area down the entire length of the country.
  14. patrickshere
    I don't think I'd even try to guess at this stage. It's very uncertain what will happen when it begins to interact with the north sea and the front that passed last night.
  15. patrickshere
    Precipitation looks like it's far more intense MK and northwards, the snow down here is pretty light with some more moderate bursts. In the lighter stuff it turns back to sleet/rain, and nothing settling. Based on what I'm currently seeing unless the southern part intensifies, I think the southern parts of this region will miss out on the best, with areas like Cambridge & Peterborough being in line for the best of it.
  16. patrickshere
    Good news guys, sleets turned to snow in Aylesbury. Wet snow still, and it's not settling - but progress.
  17. patrickshere
    Steady sleety rain here has killed the small amount of snow cover we had last night, sigh.
  18. patrickshere
    Snow to the south east (st albans) of us, snow to the north east of us (milton keynes), sleet/rain here, how frustrating.
  19. patrickshere
    Why visit a weather forum and ignore all the info? There's a radar link here: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ that makes it pretty obvious why it's sunny in your part of the world.. The fronts not even close to you yet, and never was meant to be for a good few hours yet, which means you're much more likely to get snow because it'll fall at dusk/night when temps are lower. I'm at 360ft with sleet/rain.
  20. patrickshere
    Very light sleet falling in Aylesbury, Bucks.
  21. patrickshere
    Dusting of snow here in Aylesbury, bit more out in the village I live in.
  22. patrickshere
    Latest NAE looks much better from an IMBY (aylesbury, bucks) perspective: Precipitation is intensified and more likely to be snow, based on that.
  23. patrickshere
    The first front (the one coming over tonight) has been forecasted as being weak for ages, and to fizzle out over us. The front coming over tomorrow was always forecasted to be more intense. The main precip is likely to start in our neck of the woods tomorrow afternoon, and continue into the night depending on how fast the front moves, etc.. Anything then during the week is likely to be showery, before more potential on Friday, but that's too far away to even begin to think about right now.
  24. patrickshere
    Erm, it's not even meant to have started in Wycombe yet? Tomorrow is the main event.. The question is whether in places like Aylesbury, Wycombe, etc, that it'll fall as rain/sleet/snow... Which is why I'm patiently waiting for the latest NAE! Currently not great with dewpoints looking higher at 3am..
  25. patrickshere
    Radar shows precip over us but nothing, assume it's not intense enough.
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